Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 2. China is going through a weird demographic situation. The younger generations are significantly fewer in number, they will need fewer apartments to live in. That's not really the issue. I doubt the younger generation can afford it. The problem is where the wealth is going - as in those with the $$$. > The demand side is mostly people buying second and third units as investments. No, at least not always. At some…
I think the demographics aren't in a "weird situation" ... they have significant population decline. Baby boomers is a generation across the planet with varying years in each region or country and generations behind them are smaller everywhere. China also had a 1 child policy for a long time so this has resulted in fewer people. Fewer people (smaller generation) having fewer people results in fewer people, which ...…
Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months
191–196 of 196 posts
Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
Note that recent low birthrate i.e. (2) does not immediately map to shrinking real estate demands: young people born 20-30 years ago are still moving to cities, looking for a job, and a place to sleep in, hopefully with not-too-long commutes. There will still be a bunch of young couples trying to get a home and being ruined by unfinished construction like you've mentioned.
Youth unemployment stopped being published after it skyrocketed to 20+% this year. They also no longer have the means.
Smaller cities are more possible though.
* * *
Tangential: a good part of everyone's income in those big cities goes into rent and mortage, from the average worker to the restaurants and shops downstairs. It's always been screwed.
Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
They did not of course. China looks to be playing the long game to me. But China's economic issues are the most severe since they began their incredible time of growth and productivity increases. Best in the world ever as far as I know. But now they have terrible unemployment, so bad they stopped reported stats on that and some other areas, plus the shrinking population long term. I think up until now, for the last 3…
Economic troubles in the late 80s were much more severe than today. You need to look at how things are on the ground instead of sensational western media reports. They've preached a permanent collapse of China every single year for the past 20 years. Go back 10 years and it's the same doom and gloom in the media, you just weren't as flooded by those reports as today. If anything causes a war with Taiwan, it's all thi…
I'm not sympathetic to this view that by saying the west cares about Taiwan's independence, we are going to cause China to attack Taiwan, since we talk about how China & Taiwan should be free and we'll push too much on the feelings of China or something. That's ridiculous. China keeps threatening to attack Taiwan, I'm not responsible for their actions. I can only help Taiwan, as an american and a believer in the freedom of democracies. China will attack Taiwan or subvert their democracy slowly or just accept them, but I will support the us defending Taiwan's democracy. I know many people from Taiwan, and from China too through work. They are all just people. They should be free to self determine their future and live in peace, all of them.
It's similar to Russia telling former ussr countries they can't make treaties with NATO or they will attack them, then they go and attack the ones that don't make friends with nato. I just can't accept that type of hysterical behavior. I respect the achievements of china, but they don't have the right to invade people because their feelings are threatened or something. The same is true of the us. The us is not a perfect country of course. But I'm generally in favor of democracies being able to survive.
China is not a democracy and is against the democracy of Taiwan surviving. Yeah, I knows there is a complex history about taiwan the island, and the kmt treated the natives in taiwan terribly, and there was the war for China in the 1950s that the kmt lost and chinese communists won and taiwan wasn't a democracy at the start, until recently. Still I want the democracy of taiwan to persist. I don't care about the historical arguments about one china. Let that democratic country survive. I hope one day mainland China becomes free and the people have self-determination. I've known people who escaped the soviet union and married people in my family even back into the 1980s. It can happen again hopefully the people of China can become free and self-determine their own choices about their lives.
Western media has also predicted that China would be crushing everything in the west for the last 10-20 years, from manufacturing to software engineering to military technology. I work as a software engineer, I've worked with people educated in china for 30 years now. They are smart, as brilliant and capable as anyone I meet. I don't underestimate their capabilities.
Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
Note this isn't merely a Chinese thing. A variation of this is in fact the default way new units get build and sold in the Netherlands, for example. Personal anecdote. I had a mortgage for 2 full years before being able to move in to my apartment because I bought it before a single stone was laid. The way this works here is that the money is held into an escrow account for most of time, with the construction company…
What’s the purpose of doing one of these? I’m not seeing the benefit on your side of paying for 2 years of mortgage but not living in the property.
Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
Greatly appreciate your detailed post. Very interesting! Could I kindly request that you update your post with references? This sounds very plausible, but it's difficult to acertain the veraciy of the claims. Even if the references are anectodal, or based on your experience, it would be really helpful to know where this knolwege is coming from.
Ha. You’re asking for a research paper. Which areas you want citation? You can certainly google on the areas that you're interested. I’ll see what I can do later today when I got the time.
Even just how you think you know this, would be helpful.
Is it what people are saying in social media? Is it a theory you have synthesised from other sources? What are those sources?
Just using the HN referencing style [1] where you are making a factual claim.
Understand it’s a lot of work for a stranger on the internet, hence the friendly request.
[1] like this
Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ha. You’re asking for a research paper. Which areas you want citation? You can certainly google on the areas that you're interested. I’ll see what I can do later today when I got the time.
If a research paper is required, sure. Even just how you think you know this, would be helpful. Is it what people are saying in social media? Is it a theory you have synthesised from other sources? What are those sources? Just using the HN referencing style [1] where you are making a factual claim. Understand it’s a lot of work for a stranger on the internet, hence the friendly request. [1] like this
To be frank, it’s a huge entitled ask. If it's one or two specific points being unclear and you want reference, fine. Not cool for asking references for the whole thing. What have you done to educate yourself in these areas besides asking strangers in the internet to do the work for you?