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Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

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Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#181

Post by [deleted] »

licebmi__at__ wrote: post #179
barkingcat wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

of course, but the central government is all about seeming to be in control, not objectively in control. mass arrest -> leads to questions about why 1000's of young couples are being arrested due to them not wanting to pay mortgages on houses they can't move into for years, and has no construction progress (the construction is abandoned), and this is a contagion that will lead to another city starting to rebel, leadi…

I know that this comment will seem as pro china, but really your comment is really weird and almost funny. The way you portray the two perspectives sounds like a good Chinese government action being spun like a bad thing because actually "China bad".

[deleted]

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#182

Post by quickthrower2 »

slv77 wrote: post #146
Sakos wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is the term "bankruptcy". Colloquially people seem to think a company is just out of money. All you need to file for bankruptcy is to be unable to service debts at a specific time. It might even just be a transitory state.

A company is insolvent when liabilities exceed assets. Companies can remain insolvent indefinitely unless they miss a payment at which point a creditor can force them into bankruptcy where a court oversees liquidation. Evergrande is insolvent and is now bankrupt. There is no reasonable scenario here where the company continues to operate as a growing concern.

TIL, more than one time of insolvency: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insolvency

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#183

Post by r00fus »

nradov wrote: post #151
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The end game is a political crisis. Chinese peopple tolerated the semi-dictatorship of the CCP while the economy appeared to be booming. If the economy collapses there's going to be a very unpleasant - likely violent - crisis of legitimacy. It's one reason China is pushing a BRICs currency. If China can print its way out of this disaster there's some hope of mitigation - messy, but not fatal. If that doesn't happen t…

China is not pushing a new BRICS currency. They want the BRICS and others to use their existing currency, the yuan, for international trade. Of course this is never going to happen beyond token amounts, especially not in India.

Lula, leader of Brazil (ie, the "B" in BRICS) is calling for a common currency.

"I am in favor of creating, within the BRICS, a trading currency between our countries, just like the Europeans created the euro"

This does not sound like just using the Yuan, and is more likely to gain support of the bloc. I'm pretty sure Lula and Modi do not want to trade one devil (US) for another (China).

https://www.reuters.com/article/spain-brazil-lula/update-1-b...

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#184

Post by rnk »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #177
rnk wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know that it's happening now, I was making a suggestion that it could happen. If you're having economic troubles in a country, especially in an authoritarian country, blaming the outside world for your troubles can be a smart thing. No one can really argue with you in a dictatorship - if anyone is powerful enough to contest with you, you just kick them out of the ruling party, just like what actually happened…

It "could" happen. On the other hand, it could also not happen. This is pure speculation on your part. Whatever happened to looking at evidence? This isn't the first time China has had economic trouble.

The thing that makes it much more likely than could is it is the official goal of the communist party to unify with Taiwan, and they say they will do it by force if necessary. That makes it a matter of time, waiting for some weakness in Taiwan or the lack of will in the countries supporting them.

If a much more powerful country says that they will take you over by force if you don't surrender, that's a pretty concerning position to be in.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#185

Post by FooBarWidget »

rnk wrote: post #184
FooBarWidget wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It "could" happen. On the other hand, it could also not happen. This is pure speculation on your part. Whatever happened to looking at evidence? This isn't the first time China has had economic trouble.

The thing that makes it much more likely than could is it is the official goal of the communist party to unify with Taiwan, and they say they will do it by force if necessary. That makes it a matter of time, waiting for some weakness in Taiwan or the lack of will in the countries supporting them. If a much more powerful country says that they will take you over by force if you don't surrender, that's a pretty concern…

China's goal of unifying with Taiwan also existed the last few times they had economic troubles. Did they went to war with Taiwan do deflect economic trouble back then?

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#186

Post by irjustin »

machina_ex_deus wrote: post #135
irjustin wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Thing is, all four of these can not possibly be right. It’s a little too insane. Whoever is on the other side of all those mortgages should have abandoned ship a long time ago otherwise. Why can't all 4 of these be right? "A little too insane" defines every bubble in hindsight. Point to a bubble w/ a collapse and I'll give you a set of statements that are "a little too insane" such that fundamentals don't hold up.…

GameStop? that wasn't a bubble, everyone buying it knew fully well that there are no fundamentals and that they are buying it to cause a short squeeze on hedge funds who shorted too much stock. Some of them got huge gains, others kept chasing the trade after it was over. But it definitely wasn't a bubble. It was a good trade and there were some FOMO losers who kept chasing it more than they should.

i can agree w/ this.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#187

Post by onetokeoverthe »

agilob wrote: post #66

Why would they resume trading NOW, right after Longfor was mixed with mud? https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-b... It's not going to make people feel positive about their mortgages

[dead]

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#188

Post by rnk »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #185
rnk wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that makes it much more likely than could is it is the official goal of the communist party to unify with Taiwan, and they say they will do it by force if necessary. That makes it a matter of time, waiting for some weakness in Taiwan or the lack of will in the countries supporting them. If a much more powerful country says that they will take you over by force if you don't surrender, that's a pretty concern…

China's goal of unifying with Taiwan also existed the last few times they had economic troubles. Did they went to war with Taiwan do deflect economic trouble back then?

They did not of course. China looks to be playing the long game to me. But China's economic issues are the most severe since they began their incredible time of growth and productivity increases. Best in the world ever as far as I know. But now they have terrible unemployment, so bad they stopped reported stats on that and some other areas, plus the shrinking population long term.

I think up until now, for the last 30 years (?) they were on the upswing and they looked better and better. Now they are strong, but having serious economic challenges, more than past few years. The unneeded infrastructure will start to matter more. I really hope they can keep it together and not start a war. But it's such an incredible temptation for countries in this position. They are close to their maximum power, in 10 years I expect the worker shortage to really start to hurt.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#189

Post by FooBarWidget »

rnk wrote: post #188
FooBarWidget wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's goal of unifying with Taiwan also existed the last few times they had economic troubles. Did they went to war with Taiwan do deflect economic trouble back then?

They did not of course. China looks to be playing the long game to me. But China's economic issues are the most severe since they began their incredible time of growth and productivity increases. Best in the world ever as far as I know. But now they have terrible unemployment, so bad they stopped reported stats on that and some other areas, plus the shrinking population long term. I think up until now, for the last 3…

Economic troubles in the late 80s were much more severe than today. You need to look at how things are on the ground instead of sensational western media reports. They've preached a permanent collapse of China every single year for the past 20 years. Go back 10 years and it's the same doom and gloom in the media, you just weren't as flooded by those reports as today.

If anything causes a war with Taiwan, it's all this talk about how they are going to start a war with Taiwan and subsequently sending military support to Taiwan "to defend them". China can accept (and has accepted, for decades) the status quo but not deviations from it. Taiwanese polls say that stunts like Pelosi's visit made the situation more dangerous. This is literally a self-fulfilling prophecy here. Wise leaders from the past came up with the One China Principle as a way to keep the peace, which it has for decades, but the US is rapidly breaking that construct while gaslighting the other party.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#190

Post by bobthepanda »

arthur2e5 wrote: post #132
jamesaurichs wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.) "The demand side is mostly people buying second and third units as investments." that is incorrect. Most purchases are first purchases from couples that want to get married, and a home purchase is a required dowry from men that they need in order to get approved for marriage from the parents. There are famous online videos from newlyweds that purchased a condo from a few years ago, and have been documenting their…

Note that recent low birthrate i.e. (2) does not immediately map to shrinking real estate demands: young people born 20-30 years ago are still moving to cities, looking for a job, and a place to sleep in, hopefully with not-too-long commutes. There will still be a bunch of young couples trying to get a home and being ruined by unfinished construction like you've mentioned.

Youth unemployment stopped being published after it skyrocketed to 20+% this year. They also no longer have the means.
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