Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#141

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 12:43 PM UTC

mkl wrote: post #121

ggm wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as he sticks to extrasolar but otherwise normal matter, I don't have a beef. The Oort cloud (as I understand it) is about as close to the edge of Solar you can get before it stops being our local region. Quite why you'd go beyond there, when its a) huge b) essentially uncharted waters and c) perfectly capable of providing novel chemical/isotopic materials in cometary form... His other news presence went to pr…

The sensible non-woo-woo reason is the speeds of the objects and the paths they're following; they don't match things in orbit around the sun, so aren't from the solar system. The Oort cloud reaches out more than half the distance to Alpha Centauri [1], so yes, it's distant for being in orbit around the sun, and there may be all kinds of strange materials out there and elsewhere in the solar system, but those things…

But if it's more than halfway to Alpha Centauri, then 1) it shouldn't be gravitationally bound to the sun at all, at least not in the direction of Alpha Centauri, and 2) Alpha Centauri may have its own Oort cloud, which means that this stuff would be continuous from near Sol to near Alpha Centauri.

How strong is the data that the Oort cloud ends at 3 light years? Is it possible that it is just part of the interstellar medium instead?

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#142

Post by wfvr » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 12:51 PM UTC

RetroTechie wrote: post #126

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean the measurements themselves may be fine, but the conclusions will require scrutiny.

Yep. Imho this doesn't pass Occam's razor. Finding: "Objects with chemical composition that's unknown on Earth". Conclusion: "Likely originated from outside our solar system". Simpler explanations: "Formed on Earth through previously unknown process". "Formed elsewhere inside our solar system". How many extraterrestrial (but inside solar system) substances do we really know? How much extraterrestrial substances have…

The extrasolar origin hypothesis is based on the reentry velocity, which is known and would have completely vaporized any other known type of meteor. That's what made this one special, the fact that an object with such velocity could survive reentry and impact the surface, and that's why the expedition to find remains (the spherules) was launched.

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#143

Post by pfdietz » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 12:56 PM UTC

civilitty wrote: post #20

botanical wrote: post #16

The first author is Avi Loeb, who thinks this: > In 2018, he suggested that alien space craft may be in the Solar System, using ʻOumuamua as an example. In 2023, he claimed to have recovered material from an interstellar meteor that could be evidence of an alien starship, claims some experts criticized as hasty and sensational. > On August 24, 2023, The New York Times published an article about Loeb and his search fo…

The Chief Scientist of US Space Operations Command "confirmed that the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory" [1] using "additional data available to the Department of Defense" which I assume is classified. As far as I can tell this paper isn't making any extraordinary claims about extraterrestrial intelligence [2] (which Loeb is infamous for), it's just co…

Another possibility is that these iron spherules have a terrestrial technological origin. For example, metallic iron can be formed in coal ash, and coal ash was regularly dumped at sea when coal was used as a fuel for ships.

Stable isotope evidence is needed to really justify an ET origin (there is no good reason for the isotope abundances in a different stellar system to be the same as in our own, with the exception of the ~10K stars that formed in the Sun's natal cluster), but skimming the iron isotope data I'm not convinced.

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#144

Post by prirun » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 1:09 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98

jonathanlb wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I watched the hearing and had a different takeaway: There are UAP interfering with military training exercises and in American airspace, and there doesn't exist a reliable mechanism to report these or to address them given the stigma around UAP, and there should be one for safety reasons. At the very least, I felt the pilots made a compelling case here. Now, if somehow there were indeed crashed alien crafts, I wouldn…

I mean if these hearings mean that the first-person accounts can come forward and testify themselves or more solid physical evidence, then great, job done. But given the Snowden leaks and the ones where someone posted Ukranian intelligence on their Discord server or the ones where complete service manuals for military hardware are posted on the War Thunder forums... if there was more truth to it, people would've done…

> But given the Snowden leaks ... if there was more truth to it, people would've done the whistleblowing already.

People would have said the same thing the day before Snowden went public.

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#145

Post by uptie » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 1:22 PM UTC

botanical wrote: post #16

The first author is Avi Loeb, who thinks this: > In 2018, he suggested that alien space craft may be in the Solar System, using ʻOumuamua as an example. In 2023, he claimed to have recovered material from an interstellar meteor that could be evidence of an alien starship, claims some experts criticized as hasty and sensational. > On August 24, 2023, The New York Times published an article about Loeb and his search fo…

You're poisoning the well for what reason?

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#146

Post by uptie » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 1:24 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #23

Mystery-Machine wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for pointing that out! What are your thoughts on the latest UFO congressional hearing? Do you think these people just turned their careers and image to shambles because they just wanted some sensationalism or do you give people any benefit of the doubt?

Some things to keep in mind about these UFO hearings: 1. The reports are all second- and third- hand. To my knowledge, no DoD employee has testified to anybody in Congress that they personally witnessed extraterrestrial technology or "biologics". 2. The exception here is a "Jonathan Grey", who hasn't testified before Congress, or, for that matter, been identified; he's one of David Grusch's sources, under a pseudonym…

There are interesting stories about a device allowing the user - the Vatican - to peer back through time. Called the Chronovisor. Curious times.

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#147

Post by wredue » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 1:37 PM UTC

Mystery-Machine wrote: post #17

botanical wrote: post #16

The first author is Avi Loeb, who thinks this: > In 2018, he suggested that alien space craft may be in the Solar System, using ʻOumuamua as an example. In 2023, he claimed to have recovered material from an interstellar meteor that could be evidence of an alien starship, claims some experts criticized as hasty and sensational. > On August 24, 2023, The New York Times published an article about Loeb and his search fo…

Thanks for pointing that out! What are your thoughts on the latest UFO congressional hearing? Do you think these people just turned their careers and image to shambles because they just wanted some sensationalism or do you give people any benefit of the doubt?

Since when has personal risk ever stopped people from doing things, especially clearly mentally ill people.

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#148

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 1:38 PM UTC

eesmith wrote: post #100

spaceywilly wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me what’s cool about this is he came up with this theory about IM1, went out and figured out how to test his theory, and found exactly what he was expecting to find on the ocean floor. This is how you do science, kids.

Where's the control? If you go elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, are you likely to find a similar pattern? From my reading, they went to one area, did two tracks outside that area, and compared the results. Is that enough statistics? Are there runs inside of the area which are similar to runs outside the area? If you did the same search pattern elsewhere, what are the odds of finding something similar? Even if this were…

[deleted]

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#149

Post by adolph » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 1:40 PM UTC

uptie wrote: post #145

botanical wrote: post #16

The first author is Avi Loeb, who thinks this: > In 2018, he suggested that alien space craft may be in the Solar System, using ʻOumuamua as an example. In 2023, he claimed to have recovered material from an interstellar meteor that could be evidence of an alien starship, claims some experts criticized as hasty and sensational. > On August 24, 2023, The New York Times published an article about Loeb and his search fo…

You're poisoning the well for what reason?

There's poisoning the well and there's tempering expectations. I think the parent comment is more of the latter in that is speaks to the author's other works that are announced with great hype but haven't played out as definitively as the early hype claimed. This is a problem everywhere and acknowledging that this author in particular is a standout isn't a terrible thing--they just might be right this time.

Re: Discovery of spherules of likely extrasolar composition in the Pacific Ocean [pdf]

#150

Post by adolph » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 1:45 PM UTC

spondylosaurus wrote: post #28

sixstringtheory wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the person that you asked but I think they’re full of it. Maybe they like to believe that the American government is powerful enough to control beings in possession of technology capable of interstellar travel. I don’t buy it. Or the cheese is just sliding off their cracker. Happens to many otherwise very bright folks.

I always think about how Ben Carson was one of the most skilled (if not the most skilled) neurosurgeons in the world, so knowledgeable about the human brain and so deft at operating on it that he was able to separate conjoined twins in a then-unprecedented procedure... and is also a creationist who believes that the Egyptian pyramids were biblical grain silos.

> . . . Ben Carson was one of the most skilled (if not the most skilled) neurosurgeons in the world . . . and is also a creationist who believes that the Egyptian pyramids were biblical grain silos.

There is something to be said about applying Gell-Mann amnesia more broadly than journalism alone.

In a speech in 2002, Crichton coined the term "Gell-Mann amnesia effect", after physicist Murray Gell-Mann. He used this term to describe the phenomenon of experts believing news articles written on topics outside of their fields of expertise, yet acknowledging that articles written in the same publication within their fields of expertise are error-ridden and full of misunderstanding. . .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#GellMannAmnes...