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AI isn’t good enough

skventures.substack.com

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Re: AI isn’t good enough

#51

Post by dclowd9901 »

ryoshu wrote: post #47
user3939382 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I asked ChatGPT how to add a JSDoc type to a Vue 2 prop and it gave me a wrong answer. There have been several times where I’ve asked it questions and it sprinkles in well disguised misinformation. These tools are impressive but they definitely have limitations.

True. I can't do a full table scan on an non-indexed column in a RDBMS with billions of rows on a single machine without it grinding to a halt. Tools have limitations.

Disingenuous: given the proper processing, you’d get a 100% deterministic and reliable answer.

How do you get that out of an LLM? What tool is any good if it doesn’t work 100% of the time predictably?

Re: AI isn’t good enough

#52

Post by WillPostForFood »

paulpauper wrote: post #25

The absence of human workers has become a limiting factor on economic growth in the U.S. the problem is real GDP growth is flat or negative due to high inflation. having more labor would make this worse, if anything. job creation tends to be inflationary. from 2010-2021 saw strong economic growth and low inflation, but now things suddenly changed due to too much inflation, not a lack of growth.

The jobs are already created, unfilled. The lack of workers causes wages to go up which adds to inflation (e.g., the $1000 McDonalds bonus). But if you add more workers, you increase productivity, and reduce wage inflation.

Re: AI isn’t good enough

#53

Post by solumunus »

borissk wrote: post #11

Very interesting article. IMHO a key factor in how the world changes in the next 10-20 years will be how far the current wave of AI, based on neural networks can go. If scientists and engineers manage to implement autonomous cars and robots that can do basic human tasks like clean, wait and take care of the sick and elderly we will wake up in a brand new world. It will put a lot of stress on the basics of society, su…

The human-like robot dream is a complete non starter for me, total science fiction. Unless economic reality changes radically it will always be cheaper to simply pay a human to do these jobs. There are already many jobs that could be replaced by robots but by and large they haven’t been because buying, maintaining and powering robots costs more than paying humans minimum wage, and this fact isn’t changing any time soon. The type of robots you’re envisioning are even more complex and expensive… Do you really think a human-like robot with some level of useful general AI is going to be cheaper to build, maintain and run then low skilled workers?

Re: AI isn’t good enough

#54

Post by _xivi »

ryanklee wrote: post #2

"We are quickly reaching the limits of current AI" So many words in this piece, but nothing to back up this primary assertion.

> nothing to back up this primary assertion.

Well, he's making a prediction, a speculation, a claim.

If it was as simple as `x->y` it would no longer be valuable.

Re: AI isn’t good enough

#55

Post by astrange »

Tanjreeve wrote: post #46
astrange wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely not. You wouldn't like the food, cars and home appliances of 1969, and you really wouldn't like the healthcare.

Why do you think there is a zero sum choice between real terms purchasing power increases and the technology we have today? (Also worth noting I'd happily take a lot of goods from a time where they were built to last)

There isn't a choice, the original post is incorrect.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96

Re: AI isn’t good enough

#56

Post by borissk »

solumunus wrote: post #53
borissk wrote: post #11

Very interesting article. IMHO a key factor in how the world changes in the next 10-20 years will be how far the current wave of AI, based on neural networks can go. If scientists and engineers manage to implement autonomous cars and robots that can do basic human tasks like clean, wait and take care of the sick and elderly we will wake up in a brand new world. It will put a lot of stress on the basics of society, su…

The human-like robot dream is a complete non starter for me, total science fiction. Unless economic reality changes radically it will always be cheaper to simply pay a human to do these jobs. There are already many jobs that could be replaced by robots but by and large they haven’t been because buying, maintaining and powering robots costs more than paying humans minimum wage, and this fact isn’t changing any time so…

If not anything else there's a shortage of human workers. Yes, it will be easier to manufacture and power robots, than to increase the number of human workers.

Re: AI isn’t good enough

#57

Post by dontupvoteme »

coldtea wrote: post #38
ambrozk wrote: post #18

This entire piece is based on one massive, unsupported assertion, which is that LLM progress will cease. Or, as the author puts it, "we are at the tail end of the first wave of large language model-based AI... [it] ends somewhere in the next year or two with the kinds of limits people are running up against." I want to know only one thing, which is what gives him the confidence necessary to say that. If that one stat…

> This entire piece is based on one massive, unsupported assertion, which is that LLM progress will cease. Sounds like a pretty good guesstimation. Well, not cease, just fizzle out.

It hasn't even begun to get good, we only got yesterday decent local code generation models, we haven't even begun on the fine tuning and tooling for using them.

Re: AI isn’t good enough

#58

Post by dontupvoteme »

coldtea wrote: post #43
jasfi wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you using GPT-4? If not, it's understandable. If you don't pay for ChatGPT, you get GPT-3.5. You can also get access to GPT-4 if you use the playground.

I'm using GTP-4 and it makes trivial errors all the time. I asked it (actual names changed): "I run the Linux command line program "foo". When I use the flags -xyz, I get results, but when I use -txyz I get nothing. What could this mean?" And it told me: "The lack of results is because you didn't use the -t flag". Or I ask it some very basic music theory questions and it gets stuff wrong all the time, giving impossib…

They definitely nerfed the hell out of GPT4 via the webUI at least.

Do you have API access? the old model there still gives me very good results.

Re: AI isn’t good enough

#59

Post by dontupvoteme »

dclowd9901 wrote: post #51
ryoshu wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. I can't do a full table scan on an non-indexed column in a RDBMS with billions of rows on a single machine without it grinding to a halt. Tools have limitations.

Disingenuous: given the proper processing, you’d get a 100% deterministic and reliable answer. How do you get that out of an LLM? What tool is any good if it doesn’t work 100% of the time predictably?

Right now one generation is expensive on these big mainframe models.

Query many times on the right model(s) for the question and the correct answer will be there 99.999% of the time as the other hallucinations will be thrown out.

Re: AI isn’t good enough

#60

Post by astrange »

intended wrote: post #42
astrange wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely not. You wouldn't like the food, cars and home appliances of 1969, and you really wouldn't like the healthcare.

Apples and oranges. You would like a home from 1969. You would like the salary saved from 1969.

> You would like a home from 1969.

As I live in California, I've seen 'em. They're not all Eichlers.

> You would like the salary saved from 1969.

A tech worker makes more than 5 times the median 2023 personal income and their industry didn't exist then, so I mean, I wouldn't even if I could afford the house in Palo Alto.

And you wouldn't want to say this to a racial minority or even someone in Appalachia.

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