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Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

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Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#91

The key way I try to distinguish "Snake Oil" is: Is anyone actually using this routinely , and are the problems it solves self-evident to new non-zealot users after a demo? Take blockchain for example; people spent years and millions of dollars looking for additional usages for the technology beside coins/coin-contracts; and aside from the forementioned usages it didn't really gain routine adoption. That was why the…

Snake oil is about the thing being sold, it's about the sales pitch. It's the people selling the product.

An important snake oil trait is making grand claims which have little basis as fact, particularly with things which are difficult to understand or difficult to verify (if not impossible.) You can say anything about a product if the prospective buyers can't verify the claims. And so, the claims tend to get broader and flashier.

Therefore, a snake oil sales pitch could still be applied to a highly useful product.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#92
post #69
post #65

Great to read this back-to-back with the takedown on the GAN image generation offering also on HN. The point of most critiques/polemics on AI Snake oil isn't on effectiveness of AI in context. It's about mis-application, belief its AGI, belief the answers are right, and belief it has no downsides. It's often mis-applied, It's absolutely not, and not even on the road to AGI, the answers are not always right, and it ha…

Crazy thing is that intelligence doesn't mean you get the right answer. Humans get the answer right fewer times than AI. It's absolutely not AGI, but it's not "not the road to AGI". Every step forward could be the road to AGI.

Humans get the answer right fewer times than AI

Maybe individually but not collectively. Let's not forget that we are the authors of the data AI consumed, although very few of us actually made a difference - myself included. If something like AGI is truly possible it will replace our process of discovery and creativity, arguably one of our best features. We need to know if it's better than ALL of us rather than any of us because arguably all of us will make that sacrifice.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If blockchain did fulfill the claims of it revolutionizing the world of finance, it's still unlikely your kids would have become obsessed and regular users of it. If room temperature and pressure superconducting or nuclear fusion became viable, your kids might also be unlikely to play around with them on their own. Kids apparently love Roblox and most adults think the metaverse is dead. What kids like seems pretty or…

Point taken, but how about these: - My mom cant figure out Blockchain either - My sister (doctor) and brother (3 degrees) cant figure out Blockchain either, because they are too afraid of scanning the wrong QR code and having their balance drained My mom, sister, and brother all use ChatGPT. My brother uses it actively for work.

I don't blame them since the stakes are much higher, but it probably doesn't help to say "they can't figure out blockchain" because that doesn't make any sense.

Which 'blockchain'? Blockchain is a singular noun, that's like saying "they can't figure out phone".

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another test is whether kids use it w/o being forced to. My kids are obsessed with both MidJourney and ChatGPT. They have found use cases w/o any profit motive and w/o any outside pressure. No amount of Blockchain "Webinars" would have convinced my kids to use the blockchain.

If blockchain did fulfill the claims of it revolutionizing the world of finance, it's still unlikely your kids would have become obsessed and regular users of it. If room temperature and pressure superconducting or nuclear fusion became viable, your kids might also be unlikely to play around with them on their own. Kids apparently love Roblox and most adults think the metaverse is dead. What kids like seems pretty or…

> If room temperature and pressure superconducting or nuclear fusion became viable, your kids might also be unlikely to play around with them on their own.

I disagree. Kids will turn anything not too abstract into toys. An improvised radioactive sample (actually some neon indicator bulbs in a box) + Geiger counter brought by my parents = a version of a hide-and-seek game from my own past.

Also, a model maglev train is something so obvious that I am sure such toys will appear immediately once the technology becomes viable.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#96

My washing machine says "Optimized by AI". My clothes washing machine. Hell yes it's gotten out of control.

When TVs switched from standard def, suddenly all sorts of products from makeup to paint to sunglasses were advertising themselves as “HD.” After the iMac became a surprise hit for Apple, every piece of tech junk imaginable was immediately renamed to add a lowercase “i.” Blockchain had a similar, albeit briefer, hypecycle. Marketers love to jump on the latest trend by co-opting buzzwords.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#97

The authors' substack is great. They're sort of like investigative journalists who pick a topic that's got a lot of hype and then dissect it to (often very quickly) find that the hyped up topic was just hot air. Some examples: The claims of "liberal bias" being just a completely bunk study: https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/does-chatgpt-have-a-liberal-bia... No evidence of GPT-4 getting worse over time: https://www.aisnak…

>No evidence of GPT-4 getting worse over time

I read the the article you linked to, and either you're putting words in their mouth and/or making claims that go way beyond the conclusions presented in the article.

The authors choose to distinguish between "capability degradation" and "drastic behavior change." Now, almost no one I've witnessed complaining about past and present results of ChatGPT care one bit about making such a distinction. They often simply complain that their previously good result producing prompts are now spewing garbage.

The authors explicitly admit that "the kind of fine tuning that LLMs regularly undergo can have unintended effects, including drastic behavior changes on some tasks." i.e. Fine tuning may in fact be causing the worse results.

Furthermore, the authors merely make an additional point that such a drastic behavior change shouldn't be assumed to be a "capability degradation." Meaning that, theoretically, if you toy around with your past prompt enough you should be able to eventually find an alternative version of the original prompt that outputs the past result you were looking for. Again, none of the complainers that I've come across really give a shit about this theoretical conclusion. They only care about past prompts now giving different results. In the article, the authors freely admit that this "drastic behavior change" could be objectively occurring due to fine-tuning.

To further prevent readers from making sweeping generalizations from their comments, the author's explicitly state that OpenAI makes it pretty damn difficult to do reproducible research on the LLMs in question, so you should not come to any hasty conclusions regardless ("As we have written before, this underscores how hard it is to do reproducible research that uses these APIs, or to build reliable products on top of them.")

Well, "building reliable products/processes on top of ChatGPT" is all the complainers care about anyway, so we're back to square one. Far from disproving the claim that ChatGPT is becoming more unreliable and producing worse results for the complainers use cases, the authors are in fact saying that their grievances may be justified for the only practical criteria the naysayers actually give a shit about.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#98

My washing machine says "Optimized by AI". My clothes washing machine. Hell yes it's gotten out of control.

When TVs switched from standard def, suddenly all sorts of products from makeup to paint to sunglasses were advertising themselves as “HD.” After the iMac became a surprise hit for Apple, every piece of tech junk imaginable was immediately renamed to add a lowercase “i.” Blockchain had a similar, albeit briefer, hypecycle. Marketers love to jump on the latest trend by co-opting buzzwords.

I liked how in the late 90s everything imaginable was updated to be the Generic Item 2000 to indicate it was the latest and greatest, and then once Y2K came and went they had to one up it and make everything a Generic Item 3000. Gonna confuse the hell out of some future archaeologists.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#99

My washing machine says "Optimized by AI". My clothes washing machine. Hell yes it's gotten out of control.

When TVs switched from standard def, suddenly all sorts of products from makeup to paint to sunglasses were advertising themselves as “HD.” After the iMac became a surprise hit for Apple, every piece of tech junk imaginable was immediately renamed to add a lowercase “i.” Blockchain had a similar, albeit briefer, hypecycle. Marketers love to jump on the latest trend by co-opting buzzwords.

Many of the appliances from the 90s came with a “fuzzy logic” label.

Nobody knew what it meant then, but it was still used to hype up products

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When TVs switched from standard def, suddenly all sorts of products from makeup to paint to sunglasses were advertising themselves as “HD.” After the iMac became a surprise hit for Apple, every piece of tech junk imaginable was immediately renamed to add a lowercase “i.” Blockchain had a similar, albeit briefer, hypecycle. Marketers love to jump on the latest trend by co-opting buzzwords.

Many of the appliances from the 90s came with a “fuzzy logic” label. Nobody knew what it meant then, but it was still used to hype up products

I remember seeing the fuzzy logic label on japanese rice makers.
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