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Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

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Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#121
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your example of the Go AI being programmed to learn is not all that accurate for what has been achieved here. I didn't keep the link for the discussion on the confounding of the Go AI system. What the discussion covered though was that there were simple Go configurations that the GO AI failed abysmally on when playing a human - it didn't learn here. I have spent forty years dealing with all sorts of computer systems…

> Your example of the Go AI being programmed to learn is not all that accurate for what has been achieved here. What do you mean? AlphaZero was trained entirely on self-play, and is a generic reinforcement learning algorithm. All it starts with are the rules (Chess, Go, Shogi) and a few million games later it beats — so far as I can see from a quick Google — all the humans, and most matches against AlphaGo Zero which…

> What do you mean?

Whose intelligence programmed this system?

> Do you remember the name of the AI?

If I recall correctly - Go AI.

They used a simple regular pattern and the system failed to beat the human. It didn't [learn] from this.

All such systems use a set of rules (whether specific or pattern based or mathematically based - there is some form of logic involved, even when using probabilistic functions), you and I can make choices based on illogical decisions - irrational decisions if you like. No computational system is capable of irrational decisions, the decisions may be surprising but of you look at the code then that option was always there somewhere, It cannot take a path that does not exist.

We can create a completely new path not previously available.

Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make a claim here with "Each answer displayed astonishing understanding of what occurs." and the question you fail to ask is: Whose understanding? The responses are based on the accumulated knowledge of humans and not machines. The systems have not thought through anything and understand nothing. A process of analysing or pattern matching the input question with the data stored retrieves an answer. But that data…

> You make a claim here with "Each answer displayed astonishing understanding of what occurs." and the question you fail to ask is: Whose understanding? The answer is obvious. The LLM is understanding the concepts. The last question was unique. The resulting answer was also unique. It was not a "retrieved" answer. It was a unique answer. A correct composition of several underlying concepts. A correct composition can…

> The answer is obvious. The LLM is understanding the concepts

Who created the LLM? Whose understanding underpins the LLM?

Certainly not the LLM.

> This thing understands you.

Does it? Or is this a result of the intelligence of the human beings involved in building the LLM?

> I had the LLM invent 6 regions and heat the cup of coffee to plasma levels of heat.

Did the LLM actually invent anything? Or was this result directly based on you and your intelligence with the recorded knowledge of all the human sources involved in the solution?

> You're calling it a parlor trick because of subtle errors?

I haven't called it a parlour trick. All I am saying is that there is no intelligence in these systems. Human intelligence built them, but these systems in and of themselves have no intelligence.

We do of course build many intelligent systems all the time, they are called children.

Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#123
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your example of the Go AI being programmed to learn is not all that accurate for what has been achieved here. What do you mean? AlphaZero was trained entirely on self-play, and is a generic reinforcement learning algorithm. All it starts with are the rules (Chess, Go, Shogi) and a few million games later it beats — so far as I can see from a quick Google — all the humans, and most matches against AlphaGo Zero which…

> What do you mean? Whose intelligence programmed this system? > Do you remember the name of the AI? If I recall correctly - Go AI. They used a simple regular pattern and the system failed to beat the human. It didn't [learn] from this. All such systems use a set of rules (whether specific or pattern based or mathematically based - there is some form of logic involved, even when using probabilistic functions), you an…

> If I recall correctly - Go AI.

I see.

Well, that's too generic to even be searchable.

> They used a simple regular pattern and the system failed to beat the human. It didn't [learn] from this.

Anything written like that would struggle against an amateur.

The machine learning based Go AI don't do that, and do beat humans.

> All such systems use a set of rules (whether specific or pattern based or mathematically based - there is some form of logic involved, even when using probabilistic functions), you and I can make choices based on illogical decisions - irrational decisions if you like. No computational system is capable of irrational decisions, the decisions may be surprising but of you look at the code then that option was always there somewhere, It cannot take a path that does not exist. We can create a completely new path not previously available.

Whatever standard I use for logical or illogical decisions, wherever I put that line, humans and AI seem to be on the same side.

We have electrical impulses flowing though messy networks, crossing tiny chemical barriers where they can be influenced by neurotransmitters; to me, that's not different enough from information flowing through an artificial neural network with weights and biases that have been automatically modified through feedback after winning and losing millions of games to say that the machine "isn't learning" — or that humans and machines aren't on the same side of "logical", at the fundamental lowest level we can't violate chemistry any more than transistors can violate physics, at the highest level the real logic of each can be random.

AI are inhuman, certainly, but still learning.

Just to check, you are aware that the weights and biases of an artificial neural network are basically never set by humans? That this process has to be automated?

Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#124
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All artificial computing systems are limited in ways we are not. Your "Turing Machine" example is one such case. The Halting Problem being a class example. You appear to be asserting that humans can tell if a loop will end, when that loop is defined so that if it does it doesn't and if it doesn't it does. > Even my old buck of a goat demonstrates capabilities far, far in excess of anything we have created in all of…

> You appear to be asserting that humans can tell if a loop will end, when that loop is defined so that if it does it doesn't and if it doesn't it does We can determine by looking at certain problems (The Halting Problem is one such example) what the outcome will be without actually having to execute that code. The Halting Problem is one of the simpler problems that cannot be solved by computational means, which incl…

> We can determine by looking at certain problems (The Halting Problem is one such example) what the outcome will be without actually having to execute that code.

No, we definitely can't do that in general, and that lack of generality is the halting problem.

> Take time to observe the interactions that occur and think about how little [training] is involved here.

Apart from "all of evolutionary history", (though everyone agrees AI are slow learners when counting how many examples they need if that's your point?), there's continuous feedback from pleasure and pain and probably a lot more emotions that don't necessarily map onto any human qualia.

> I think that when you think about how we program our various artificial stupidity systems that we are still at the caveman stage in our computational systems. We have barely discovered fire so to speak.

I'd use a different analogy; dinosaur perhaps.

> As for [GPT-3 is about as complex as the brain of a rodent], I don't think GPT-3 has even reached a single bacterium cell state of intelligence.

I think my Roomba-clone does that: touch an obstacle, back off, rotate a few degrees, go forward again.

Now that, I'm fairly sure was programmed rather than learned (in the robot; still learned in the bacteria via evolution).

> I would like you to try the following: Using your index finger on your left hand, touch the tip of your nose.

> Now think about this: How did you do that very simple task? When did you learn and how did you learn to do that simple task?

How: a network of neurons, if I remember right about 40 deep, integrating mostly proprioceptor input as it's continuously updated when my muscles move.

When: unclear, either as an infant before and autobiographical memories, or genetic (which is arguably "not me").

I'm not sure this matters, either way though, as we do have robots which are navigating entirely by proprioception, and which again learned by training rather than being programmed.

> What programming do we need to do to achieve this task?

basically:

""" from FooLibrary import AiModel

model = AiModel()

model.learn(input, expected_output) """

With a lot of optional parameters in the constructor for different hyperparameters like "learning rate" and neurons/layers…

> We can build very useful tools that we can use to good purpose. But no tool is ever more than a tool for us.

When tools stops being mere tools — regards of this is mere perception, or when peasants and slaves revolt, or when (Australia) pest-control animals themselves become pests — we generally have big problems.

I agree the world is more fragile; I don't know if AI will help or not.

Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You make a claim here with "Each answer displayed astonishing understanding of what occurs." and the question you fail to ask is: Whose understanding? The answer is obvious. The LLM is understanding the concepts. The last question was unique. The resulting answer was also unique. It was not a "retrieved" answer. It was a unique answer. A correct composition of several underlying concepts. A correct composition can…

> The answer is obvious. The LLM is understanding the concepts Who created the LLM? Whose understanding underpins the LLM? Certainly not the LLM. > This thing understands you. Does it? Or is this a result of the intelligence of the human beings involved in building the LLM? > I had the LLM invent 6 regions and heat the cup of coffee to plasma levels of heat. Did the LLM actually invent anything? Or was this result di…

>Who created the LLM? Whose understanding underpins the LLM?

Who created you? Whose understanding underpins you? Asking these questions about you is as irrelevant as asking it about the LLM.

Just because books, educations your teachers, the internet and your parents and the environment shaped everything you know doesn't preclude your membership into the category of things that are capable of understanding.

>Does it? Or is this a result of the intelligence of the human beings involved in building the LLM?

It does understand you. The intelligence of human beings who built it aren't directly involved as it was trained on external data.

>Did the LLM actually invent anything? Or was this result directly based on you and your intelligence with the recorded knowledge of all the human sources involved in the solution?

Does a human actually invent something or is it directly based on recorded knowledge?

You're asking irrelevant questions. Humans do not create things out of thin air either. Humans also invent things by composing existing knowledge to form concepts. The inventing that LLMs can do is equivalent in totality to our understanding of the word "invent"

>I haven't called it a parlour trick. All I am saying is that there is no intelligence in these systems. Human intelligence built them, but these systems in and of themselves have no intelligence.

Totally false. Not only are you wrong but experts in AI including the father of modern AI disagree with you completely and utterly.

If I copied your brain and replicated exactly that brain is "from human intelligence" but that copy of your brain is still an intelligence independent of it's origins and where it got it's knowledge.

>We do of course build many intelligent systems all the time, they are called children.

It's like you're eating your own logic. We also build intelligent systems called LLMs. Same concept.

Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#126
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't agree with your definition at all. 2 people want to kill each other. The one taking the first step is the intelligent one because according to your definition he was better at predicting an outcome than his opponent. The real world is more complex than that and there are multiple options where both survive, or letting your opponent live and killing yourself because his life is more beneficial to humanity and…

Maybe I wasn't clear enough. The definition of intelligence I propose is wholly distinct from human prosocial values like cooperation. This makes it useful for judging these properties across living and non-living intelligent processes, such as bacteria, ants, plants, dogs, LLMs, etc. It is not a useful definition for judging the value or "goodness" of human beings within society. I'm arguing that intelligence (as pr…

I'm not coming from a moral standpoint either, just giving an example of how correct prediction may lead to consequences we would call retarded. Predicting resources being scarce may lead to over-consumption which leads to the extinction of everything. You could argue an intelligent organism would predict that and adapt but we're still trying ourselves.

There are plants that slow their own growth to share resources if their neighbor is of the same species, and vice-versa if it's a different species. That could be called intelligence in a sense, but it's not as simple as just prediction there's a social aspect and a long-term goal. But is it even conscious and aware of what it's doing or is it just the traits favored by evolution. Is agency part of your definition of prediction or is it enough to just react to the surroundings?

Intelligence is much more complex than a single trait. Being good at prediction is just that, being good at prediction.

Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sensory appearance not being equivalent to reality does not have any relevance to the question of AI and humans ultimately being the same kind of information-processing system. Just handwaving "that's X philosophical position and it has problems" does not strike me as a good argument either unless you manage to explain how these problems pertain to the question at hand.

Unless AI becomes indistinguishable from human beings on a cellular level, yes, it’s entirely relevant and is the single most relevant thing. A lot of people seem to think that if an AI can simulate the appearance of a human being, that makes them equivalent to one. It might introduce some problems WRT to determining if an entity is human or not, but this doesn’t somehow prove they humans are just a “parlor trick.” T…

> Unless AI becomes indistinguishable from human beings on a cellular level, yes, it’s entirely relevant and is the single most relevant thing.

I disagree.

Thought experiment: design a circuit which has as many inputs and outputs as a biological neurone, such that it always maps inputs to outputs in the same way (including the observation that this isn't a static map but one which changes over time), then connect them as neurons are in one of us.

While clearly nothing like an natural brain on a cellular level, I believe this is a sufficient similarity to be "the same parlour tricks".

The question then is: how close does the design actually need to be, while not losing anything of importance?

Perceptrons were only ever a toy model, so they may well be insufficient; but on the other hand, for a sense of scale, GPT-3 is about the complexity of a rodent brain rather than a human brain — and that suggests that humans could learn to be simultaneous experts in many dozens of fields and languages with a mere tenth of a percentage point of our brains if only we lived long enough to read the entire internet.

Which matters most — neurons, connective structure, learning environment, or something else — is, I think, still an open question. But even between all the differences, AI collectively are general purpose enough to at least suspect these things have got a lot of similarities where it matters.

Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#128
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's what ultimately depresses me about AI. It's still just a parlor trick. We haven't actually taught computers to think, to reason, to be innovative. And what do you feel when we make these parlor tricks more capable than us at the majority of tasks? And what do you feel when we understand it well enough to realize we're the same type of parlor tricks? To me it seems like you're most interested in a magic 'aha'…

Computers are already better than humans at a wide variety of tasks. Text generation just happens to now be one of those tasks. But if you look at the prompt -> output -> prompt feedback loop, it's clear that the human submitting the prompts is still doing all the thinking. We're not yet at the point where the AI can prompt itself and improve its output in a logical manner.

> We're not yet at the point where the AI can prompt itself and improve its output in a logical manner.

Self-play is widely used to train game AI, and is the "A" in "GAN"; is there any point doing it on an LLM? Especially on the ones being sold as services where people get upset if they change over time?

Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In actual tests it is beyond human level. Humans actually mishear about 1 in 20 words during transcription tests; whisper does better.

But we don’t solely rely on how well we hear since we have knowledge that allows us to correct for poor hearing based on what is being said rather than forging ahead with a nonsense transcription. Machine transcription is definitely faster and cheaper but the end product isn’t “better,” and anyone who has read it can attest to that.

> But we don’t solely rely on how well we hear since we have knowledge that allows us to correct for poor hearing based on what is being said rather than forging ahead with a nonsense transcription.

Good voice transcription AI already do that too; that's why they work best if they know which language they're operating in, as that means they can use the language to create a model of the most likely words.

I think the most recent WWDC from Apple even has a video about adding custom vocabulary for their speech engine to pick up on that covered some details in this exact topic, though I can't search right now.

Re: Jeff Bezos on AI (1998) [video]

#130
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we don’t solely rely on how well we hear since we have knowledge that allows us to correct for poor hearing based on what is being said rather than forging ahead with a nonsense transcription. Machine transcription is definitely faster and cheaper but the end product isn’t “better,” and anyone who has read it can attest to that.

> But we don’t solely rely on how well we hear since we have knowledge that allows us to correct for poor hearing based on what is being said rather than forging ahead with a nonsense transcription. Good voice transcription AI already do that too; that's why they work best if they know which language they're operating in, as that means they can use the language to create a model of the most likely words. I think the…

Undoubtedly so but I have yet to see one that doesn't make mistakes a human would be unlikely to. It is not an easy capability to reproduce and wouldn't have been my first choice if I wanted to talk about things it can do better than people.
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