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China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

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371–380 of 395 posts

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#371

The Chinese government's approach to dealing with failing real-estate companies, including Evergrande, is distinct from typical Western bailouts. In China, the strategy often involves allowing such companies to default in a controlled manner. Given that the major lenders and banks are state-owned , this essentially means that the government bears the loss through these institutions (what else can happen anyway??) . A…

It’s interesting we hear the terms “bail out” when connected with how the US managed major institutional collapse. However from what I experienced on the street during these “bail outs,” Lehman, Bear, SVB, First Republic no longer exist. Their assets were salvaged and remaining functional assets acquired. The fed, treasury, and other institutions involved in the bailout ended up making handsome profits from the reper…

> Tax payers” paid nothing, and benefited from the recovery from the disorderly Lehman collapse and the credit squeeze that caused. There’s a lot of speculation that the relatively mild inflation the US experienced post pandemic was due to all the QE and other moves the government and governmental bodies did, as well as pandemic stimulus

This is completely wrong and naive, please let us know what agency you work for.

You say stuff like that with an references, for the record everytime the money printer is run the tax payers, aka bag holders, pay out the ass.

Saying the inflation is mild is not agreed with, where are you getting that from?

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#372
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said allies. Those people you tell, in writing, signed by your highest authorities: if your people start dying at the hands of another country, our people will start dying with them. Talk is cheap.

China does not have allies in that manner.

China does have one such alliance:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-North_Korean_Treaty_of_Fr...

Of course "talk is cheap" is an hyperbole, since there can be a lot of mutually beneficial agreements that don't involve military sacrifice

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Sino-Russian_Treaty_of_Fr...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisat...

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#373
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean oligarchs. I mean everyday men and women. People don't want to be politically active because they know that Putin allows and wants them to acquire wealth (and even has no problem with them exporting that wealth abroad); and they also know that the masses don't want them to be allowed that, and if Putin is out, most probably masses will have it their way.

Everyday men and women, which I take to mean middle class, aren't a threat or power base in modern Russia. They don't have voting power. They don't have demonstration power. They don't have access to broadcast their free speech via mass media. Short of outright rioting, there's little they can do that matters to the Russian government. Which means than in a trade-off between {what the people want} and {what those wit…

Ironically, today the idea of reintroducing capital controls was rejected, officially, "because it was obvious that people will quickly find ways around it anyway". Simply put, there is no need to further increase already terrible level of corruption by introducing another useless but corruption-inducing regulation.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you think those local authorities spent their money? They knew the local housing market was no good. Even the things that did get built were Tofu-dreg projects. The bought real estate in the US and Canada.

Real estate in Canada? Just the way it's outlined makes it sound like some foreign led fraud as opposed to a mostly home grown corrupt practices. A similar thing happens in American suburbs where they expand cities with business malls and suburban development to enlarge the tax base but ignore O&M on infrastructure then sell more development to compensate. But in china, they were selling development with ever buildin…

You must not be familiar with what happened to the real estate market in Vancouver as a result of majority foreign investing from China...

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#375
post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The simple truth is China would not have been able to achieve the scale of productivity and growth that it has In plan economy, controlled corruption is a feature not a bug

Can you explain more? What's the theory or practice behind corruption adding benefit to the extent that you want to work it in?

It lets entrepreneurs bypass bureaucracy

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain more? What's the theory or practice behind corruption adding benefit to the extent that you want to work it in?

It lets entrepreneurs bypass bureaucracy

Good point. Makes sense. Doesn't that mean West will need to either: loosen regulations, or permit corruption to, if it's going to compete?

Maybe the whole "VC industry" is essentially a form of "organized corruption" ha! sometimes I guess I think so... :) haha

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#377

The Chinese government's approach to dealing with failing real-estate companies, including Evergrande, is distinct from typical Western bailouts. In China, the strategy often involves allowing such companies to default in a controlled manner. Given that the major lenders and banks are state-owned , this essentially means that the government bears the loss through these institutions (what else can happen anyway??) . A…

They also trade it in the market, and anyone who tried to raise warning bells early is censored. Andrew Left got banned from trading in HK in 2016 because he said the company was doomed. We’ve known for a long time that Evergrande was in serious trouble, that was 7 years ago, and the Chinese government’s solution was to look for suckers who would listen to them rather than look at the numbers.

The story that somehow the Chinese government tried to censor somebody in Hong Kong (pre-2019) for saying a non-state-owned-enterprise was doomed didn't seem quite right.

So I looked it up.

https://apps.sfc.hk/edistributionWeb/gateway/EN/news-and-ann...

It looks like this Andrew Left claimed Evergrande was insolvent in *2012*. This seems more specific than "the company was doomed". I suspect the claims in 2012 was at least a bit of a hyperbole, since you'd have to hide it pretty well to keep being insolvent for 10 years. From what I read the trigger of the Evergrande blowup was over leveraged loans and a slowing property market, the situation would have been a bit different in 2012.

This seems like a case of "predicted the last 9 of the 5 recessions". I'm not sure a company blowing up 10 years after he said it was doomed is much vindication except to the extent that maybe it was really a crappy company after all.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#378
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism, like socialism, or postmodernism, or the labels conservative or liberal are almost devoid of meaning. But please, both the parent commenter and you keep arguing what the true meaning of capitalism is. Meanwhile I will head to the market and barter some of my guns for butter.

The problem with these terms is not that they have no meaning, it's that they have no context-free virtue. Prohibiting leaded gasoline is good and prohibiting housing construction is bad, even if they're both government regulations. Competitive markets are good and concentrated markets are bad, even if they're both markets. But people want to assign a label to the category instead of the instance, and then they fight…

> Prohibiting leaded gasoline is good and prohibiting housing construction

Leaded gasoline an issue when govt bans density leading to sprawl.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#379
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism, like socialism, or postmodernism, or the labels conservative or liberal are almost devoid of meaning. But please, both the parent commenter and you keep arguing what the true meaning of capitalism is. Meanwhile I will head to the market and barter some of my guns for butter.

The problem with these terms is not that they have no meaning, it's that they have no context-free virtue. Prohibiting leaded gasoline is good and prohibiting housing construction is bad, even if they're both government regulations. Competitive markets are good and concentrated markets are bad, even if they're both markets. But people want to assign a label to the category instead of the instance, and then they fight…

> Prohibiting leaded gasoline is good and prohibiting housing construction

Leaded gasoline an issue when govt prohibits housing construction leading to sprawl.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds ponzi schemic.

That’s because it is. China lacks a safe financial system that the ordinary person can invest in, the way that an American can park funds in an index fund and expect a reasonable rate of return. (The Shanghai and Hong Kong indices are not as healthy as the general economy.) It also lacks generous pension schemes like those in Europe. So part of the reason this is so bad is because most Chinese citizens put their nest…

If you think the S&P500 and NASDAQ in recent years merely gives a "reasonable rate of return" you'll realize that there really aren't any other economies with a "safe financial system". Most markets don't have that level of growth.

The Chinese predisposition to invest in real property is much more cultural (and irrational) than what you suggest. The Chinese stock market is actually much more rational in this regard as for quite a while you could buy Chinese real estate stocks with pennies on the dollar, price to book ratios much less than one. Traders know the real estate bubble is going to burst sooner or later and the stock market priced this in. The real estate market which mostly consists of individual buyers didn't quite get the memo until recently.

Speaking personally, in Chinese circles, the social pressure buy an expensive apartment is honestly overwhelming, and it's not because people knew that the property market was a good investment, it was just something they thought a respectable person should do once they earned some money. Family members without any financial literacy kept thinking I was an idiot for holding FAANG stocks instead of buying an apartment. AFAICT I'm the only person in my social circle (including people who should have known better) that has avoided the recent property slump (in Hong Kong) by steadfastly refusing to enter the property market at its height a couple years ago. It's nice to not have people nagging me about it now.

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