Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

cnbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 395 posts

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#21

Post by jsiepkes »

dragonelite wrote: post #11
ipnon wrote: post #5

There are many real estate giants and so-called "trust" companies who are incapable of repaying debt right now. Some of these companies have trillions in RMB on their balance sheets. The central bank can bail them out but at the expense of the assets of the middle and lower class. This would only further incentivize cash hoarding, and tighten the middle income trap. It is not an enviable situation.

China will not be captured by the middle income trap because it has already escaped the middle income trap. The middle income in my opinion has a different reason countries get stuck there and its by design. Because the road to high income is protected by western IP protection. Patents are way for the west to forever license fees for their high end technology, China is beating the west in new IP generation and hence…

> It was never about money or trade it was all about keeping asians down and dependent.

Thats way too much simplification. For starters there isn't a level playing field. Any Chinese company can start a company in the west but if a western company wants to start a company in China you can either start a "second class" entity (a WFOE) or if you want a level playing field with the locals you can use a joint venture but then a Chinese national must have 50+% stake in your business.

Just ask ARM what can happen if you go for a joint venture.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#22

Post by FpUser »

acyou wrote: post #9

There is a sort of balance where one market going down makes another go up. For example, real estate assets everywhere but China now look better in the long term. Bank crashing = money printing = asset values go back up. Can't lose.

>"real estate assets everywhere but China now look better in the long term."

They do not look better. They look inflated and unaffordable. If not fixed this will have social consequences at some point and it won't be pretty.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#23

Post by cscurmudgeon »

greesil wrote: post #14
cscurmudgeon wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under "Good ol' capitalism" companies like Evergrande won't exist in the first place. Edit: CCP imposing market restrictions causing average folks to invest only in real estate is not "Good ol' capitalism".

Capitalism, like socialism, or postmodernism, or the labels conservative or liberal are almost devoid of meaning. But please, both the parent commenter and you keep arguing what the true meaning of capitalism is. Meanwhile I will head to the market and barter some of my guns for butter.

> Meanwhile I will head to the market and barter some of my guns for butter.

vs

> Meanwhile I will head to the local apparatchik and request permission to barter some of my guns for butter while paying homage to dear leader.

Those are two distinct experiences.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#24

Post by AnthonyMouse »

greesil wrote: post #14
cscurmudgeon wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under "Good ol' capitalism" companies like Evergrande won't exist in the first place. Edit: CCP imposing market restrictions causing average folks to invest only in real estate is not "Good ol' capitalism".

Capitalism, like socialism, or postmodernism, or the labels conservative or liberal are almost devoid of meaning. But please, both the parent commenter and you keep arguing what the true meaning of capitalism is. Meanwhile I will head to the market and barter some of my guns for butter.

The problem with these terms is not that they have no meaning, it's that they have no context-free virtue. Prohibiting leaded gasoline is good and prohibiting housing construction is bad, even if they're both government regulations. Competitive markets are good and concentrated markets are bad, even if they're both markets.

But people want to assign a label to the category instead of the instance, and then they fight with people whose instance doesn't fit the label -- or whose instance does fit the label but they refuse to accept it because they assigned a different label to the category.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#25

Post by whimsicalism »

jamesaurichs wrote: post #18

Some real estate related news from China: - Country garden, China's second biggest property company after Evergrande, missed a mere 22.5M payments for dollar denominated bonds. It is trying to restructure a $340B debt owned. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-... - Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale - One of China's bigges…

Yes, it is not looking good for their outlook.

That said, nobody is seriously claiming Chinese youth unemployment at 50% unless you are looking at something like labor force participation rate, which is then a similar number for the US as well.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#27

Post by [deleted] »

jamesaurichs wrote: post #18

Some real estate related news from China: - Country garden, China's second biggest property company after Evergrande, missed a mere 22.5M payments for dollar denominated bonds. It is trying to restructure a $340B debt owned. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-... - Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale - One of China's bigges…

[deleted]

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#28

Post by CamperBob2 »

jamesaurichs wrote: post #18

Some real estate related news from China: - Country garden, China's second biggest property company after Evergrande, missed a mere 22.5M payments for dollar denominated bonds. It is trying to restructure a $340B debt owned. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-... - Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale - One of China's bigges…

Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong

Talk about nominative determinism...

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#29

Post by AnthonyMouse »

ipnon wrote: post #5

There are many real estate giants and so-called "trust" companies who are incapable of repaying debt right now. Some of these companies have trillions in RMB on their balance sheets. The central bank can bail them out but at the expense of the assets of the middle and lower class. This would only further incentivize cash hoarding, and tighten the middle income trap. It is not an enviable situation.

Are they actually underwater or do they just have higher loan payments than rental income? If it's the latter, let them sell some properties or transfer them to the bank in lieu of loan payments.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#30

Post by CamperBob2 »

irjustin wrote: post #12
csomar wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chinese stock market (Shanghai index) has been through lots of boom and busts. It didn't affect western market in the slightest. I'd not expect otherwise. The only difference is that if the Chinese economy tanks hard (great depression style), this might be contagious to the rest of Asia and eventually to the rest of the world. But any guess is good if that happens.

Agreed a crash in China would have fallout but not 08/09. The Chinese housing market was fueled by the familial need to own a house. Which led people to lead no matter what people would buy property, basically "stocks always go up"... "housing always goes up"... We can never run out of buyers!

If the comment above regarding a fertility rate of 1.09 is correct, then yes, you can run out of buyers, and are well on the way to doing so.
Post reply on HN