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Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

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Re: Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

#51

Post by ChatGTP »

renegade-otter wrote: post #24
myth_drannon wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone knows about Chernobyl. Most likely what they didn't know was where they are. I saw too many videos of soldiers asking locals for directions in the first days of war.

You underestimate Russia's induced ignorance about Chernobyl. Most of these 20-year-olds were from remote, shit-poor areas of Russia, and even if they went to school of some sort, it didn't matter much. You think those textbooks mentioned the incident? No. To this day, Chernobyl is a pain point for Russia - f--k knows why because it didn't even happen there . When HBO's Chernobyl came out, Moscow went into a full-blo…

Do you know the name of the show, I’d like to watch it

Re: Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

#52

Post by DoreenMichele »

dylan604 wrote: post #5
jncfhnb wrote: post #2

> The IAEA sent experts to do a radiological survey in the CEZ in April, but their focus wasn’t on determining the cause of the spikes. Investigators instead wanted to determine if Russian soldiers who dug trenches in a small section of the CEZ had released dangerous levels of radiation in that area that could have sickened the soldiers or anyone else who passed through that area. (The IAEA determined the radiation l…

Being from the West, it is very difficult to think that information black out can be achieved at such a level that younger generations would know nothing of a disaster on the level of Chernobyl.

How much do you know about The Red Scare in the US? I'm American and barely know anything about it.

It's just not really talked about and not, as far as I know, due to fear of being imprisoned for it.

Ugly history is often "forgotten" even when there is no compulsion to "forget" it.

Re: Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

#53

Post by myth_drannon »

newsclues wrote: post #47
myth_drannon wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone knows about Chernobyl. Most likely what they didn't know was where they are. I saw too many videos of soldiers asking locals for directions in the first days of war.

Lots of the Russian soldiers come from regions without widespread indoor plumbing, to put some perspective to how backward and disconnected some people are.

Don't see how a country's infrastructure issues are related to people backwardeness. The same people who use outhouses probably also have smartphones. It's like saying people who live in remote Canadian villages without road access are backward.

Re: Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

#54

Post by defrost »

nullc wrote: post #19
refulgentis wrote: post #3

Interesting until the extended meditations on "why didn't anyone look into this more?????" -- as laid out, IAEA knew and said so publicly, the readings were few and transitory (30m-2h), and if there was a hack, there's 0 real evidence and it's not clear to me it'd be worth disclosing publicly (Russia hacked nuclear radiation in a headline for a schoolboys prank level 'hack' that is completely unprovable)

A bunch of sensors don't just give very high readings at once by chance. There is a reason. If it had just been one sensor that would be another matter (and perhaps it needs to be replaced...) It doesn't make sense as a prank in that it was only a few sensors and not persistent, it's not like they drew a dick with the results or set them to over 9000.

Looking at the reported patterns of the spikes (just a few widely seperated sensors having their stored aggregated data routinely being corrupted at similar times of day) there's another highly probable cause.

Brittle software and data management.

According to the linked third party piece and the Wired reporting things are going wrong at the first aggregate server that collates all the sensor data.

The first port of call for the regular data admin HN crowd would be bad cron jobs, sloppy scripting, glitchy deamon whacking memory, .. a thousand possible causes all of which have happened before in the history of remote sensor data aggregation.

It's likely persisting as ground zero is in a war torn country at a place that likely faces time, resource, and staffing challenges; and it's likely being "ignored" at the higher action levels as the data has been looked at and random spikes are being filtered away and there's a big yellow post it note somewhere to look into the root causes as soon as possible (which may take some time).

Re: Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

#55

Post by 0xDEF »

The Ukrainians played it down and claimed it was because of fires and Russian military vehicles driving around in the area were stirring up the radioactive top layer of soil.

Why would they have faked the sensor data?

Re: Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

#56

Post by LeonB »

If Ukrainian people (whether state sanctioned or independent) manipulated the sensors to amplify concern about Russia’s invasion —- it would not be remarkable.

Deception, misdirection, sabotage, these are all crucial elements in every war.

Re: Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

#58

Post by YeBanKo »

LeonB wrote: post #56

If Ukrainian people (whether state sanctioned or independent) manipulated the sensors to amplify concern about Russia’s invasion —- it would not be remarkable. Deception, misdirection, sabotage, these are all crucial elements in every war.

Agreed, but if would also be self-sabotaging. Their emergency services are stretched thin. And the population does not believe that the government can deal with a nuclear threat. It can cause a panic among population, within and outside of Ukraine and the sentiment might be hard to control.

Re: Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

#59

Post by mannykannot »

defrost wrote: post #54
nullc wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bunch of sensors don't just give very high readings at once by chance. There is a reason. If it had just been one sensor that would be another matter (and perhaps it needs to be replaced...) It doesn't make sense as a prank in that it was only a few sensors and not persistent, it's not like they drew a dick with the results or set them to over 9000.

Looking at the reported patterns of the spikes (just a few widely seperated sensors having their stored aggregated data routinely being corrupted at similar times of day) there's another highly probable cause. Brittle software and data management. According to the linked third party piece and the Wired reporting things are going wrong at the first aggregate server that collates all the sensor data. The first port of…

Any such investigation would also want to look for an upgrade or reconfiguration at the time of the invasion, to explain the prior absence of the phenomena.

Some sort of reconfiguration to work around problems caused by the invasion, maybe?

Re: Radiation Spikes at Chernobyl

#60

Post by mannykannot »

h2odragon wrote: post #22

suspecting the sensors or collection network has been subverted; does it make sense to presume the normal looking signal is the true signal and the abnormal one is false data? would the opposite assumption have testable traces? just letting paranoia run free, if theres some later "dirty bomb" whose signatures match chernobyl debris, can that now be tied to either party or has reasonable doubt been established, anyone…

I imagine that the prior data is consistent with the contamination being distributed by the wind from the reactor fire, and thereafter being subject only to the weather, and to a lesser extent, geological and biological processes. It seems unlikely, however, that the unusual features of the spikes can be explained by natural processes alone.
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