It's been a long process, 2 years ago people were already talking about Evergrande falling
China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
141–150 of 395 posts
Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
#142I’m never sure if news about China’s upcoming economic problems is written because such an event is actually coming or if the media writes it just for the clicks.
I see China in 2023 where Japan was in 1991. Real Estate is falling apart. But in the end, the are the workbench of the world. They have Billions of people that can potentially work. Some of them are well educated and highly industrious. Japan survived so will China.
Average people in 1991 Japan were much wealthier than average people in China today.
The question is: do average people matter?
It doesn't seems so.
Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
#143Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why does China need 1.5 billion people?
Future generations have to pay off the debt generated by the current generation. Same as everywhere. You can either grow the population or make the economy more efficient, China still has the latter lever available to pull.
China has a gross savings rate of 45-50%. Current gen has saved for their future.
Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some bold claims with little evidence. GDP capita flattened at 13k is hardly “escaped the middle income trap”. IPs can be harmful to growth but then again China has never shown any intent to enforce IPs of western origin. There are no evidence of the US wanting to “keep asians down” - many of USAs asian trading partners enjoy less trade regulation. The “trade war” might be counterproductive but was a, imo mild, respo…
There are enormous economic differences within China and given the scale of the country it is much harder to make these kinds of broad-stroke arguments. Looking at gdp per region [0], the main tier one cities are already clearly a cut above middle income countries, even a province like Jiansu with 23k$ in GDP per capita has a higher GDP/capita than Poland and a larger population than Germany or the UK. [0] https://en…
The problem with GDP per capita is that it doesn't necessarily correlate with wages (which is what we're talking about with middle income trap).
You can look at Singapore or Ireland for another example. They have higher GDP per capita than the US, but a lot of it's due to multi-nationals storing IP in those countries, and funneling cash through for tax purposes. It's not GDP that gets converted to local wages.
And in the case of certain Chinese regions, if you have companies headquartered there (with multiple sites at satellite cities), GDP measures are going to assign national GDP to that one region, so again, it doesn't necessarily reflect local wages.
Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the US sure, where its blasphemous to slit the throats of the leisure classes for their excesses. In China they made Jack Ma disappear. Through out history when it gets time for the Kings & Queens to waive the debt of the plebs away, cause they have nothing left to pay, the Rentier classes take the haircut. In the US the rentiers have owned the Kings & Queens for a long time. To the point where any American instit…
Well, start with the first 10, then remaining ones will emigrate and simply assign bounty for any head of CCP member based on the rank - until the Party is eliminated. How about that? Don't underestimate the money - it goes the long way.
> then remaining ones will emigrate and simply assign bounty for any head of CCP member based on the rank
This is a fantasy.
Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
#146Earlier quoted context omitted.
You think Jack Ma didnt try that?
Still, human history shows us that money always wins. People have natural instinct to acquire wealth. No political regime has remained viable for a long time if it tried to go against this instinct. Authoritarianism works fine; in fact i am even in a bit of doubt about democracy being the better social order, in any case our empirical data to confirm that is insufficient - but even authoritarian society should exploi…
> Still, human history shows us that money always wins.
Human history has shown us that whomever controls the army usually wins.
Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
Government control over reproduction leads to unintended consequences? Who would've seen that coming?
This is a crisis happening everywhere in the developed world. A stable practical fertility rate is 2.1. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world, below 0.8, and there was no government meddling there. The US fertility rate is also plummeting and now down to below 1.7 and heavily biased by income. The birth rate for households earning $200,000 [1] with a near perfect linear relationship for incomes in be…
> Systems of social security, healthcare, and the general economy will just collapse under that sort of pressure.
Maybe we could buttress them by all the 4x to 10x productivity gains that automation has brought us. [1] Maybe we could cut back on all the useless, extraneous, low-to-negative ROI shit we're doing. We have options, here, that don't require a population ponzi scheme.
(Also, you can't be blaming this situation in China on demographic collapse, when it allegedly has massive youth unemployment.)
[1] Remember, just a few decades, when somehow, a single working adult could comfortably provide for a whole family? Why can't he, anymore? What has changed? We are more productive per worker, we have more workers participating in the economy, but somehow, you think we can't provide for everyone.
Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
You think Jack Ma didnt try that?
Still, human history shows us that money always wins. People have natural instinct to acquire wealth. No political regime has remained viable for a long time if it tried to go against this instinct. Authoritarianism works fine; in fact i am even in a bit of doubt about democracy being the better social order, in any case our empirical data to confirm that is insufficient - but even authoritarian society should exploi…
> Still, human history shows us that money always wins.
Are you aware of what happened to the landlords in China or do you mean the landlords weren't human?
Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
> it was all about keeping asians down and dependent. Probably because of this. The US is allied to several prosperous Asian countries.
The US is chasing hegemonial "interests overseas". Every other country, that tries to develop a sovereign position in too many industrial sectors contradicts that. Thats how the US justify their industrial/political espionage on basically all their "allies".
LOL at accusing the US of industrial espionage in a discussion about China :-))
Nota bene, I'm convinced the US is spying. It's just what China is doing in terms of spying and forced industrial transfer makes the US stuff look kiddie play.
Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
> it was all about keeping asians down and dependent. Probably because of this. The US is allied to several prosperous Asian countries.
Yes, prosperous. But as prosperous as the US? And being prosperous doesn't mean not being dependent. Japan agreed to the Plaza accords https://youtu.be/pU_yyadYgG8 Other Asian countries probably are going to be careful before signing up for something equivalent.
Is the US supposed to make these countries as prosperous as itself?
Please do list all the prosperous Chinese or Russian allies.
I'll wait.