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China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

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Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#131

Post by ksey3 »

anovikov wrote: post #125
ksey3 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US sure, where its blasphemous to slit the throats of the leisure classes for their excesses. In China they made Jack Ma disappear. Through out history when it gets time for the Kings & Queens to waive the debt of the plebs away, cause they have nothing left to pay, the Rentier classes take the haircut. In the US the rentiers have owned the Kings & Queens for a long time. To the point where any American instit…

Well, start with the first 10, then remaining ones will emigrate and simply assign bounty for any head of CCP member based on the rank - until the Party is eliminated. How about that? Don't underestimate the money - it goes the long way.

You think Jack Ma didnt try that?

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#132

Post by jsemrau »

meowtimemania wrote: post #103

I’m never sure if news about China’s upcoming economic problems is written because such an event is actually coming or if the media writes it just for the clicks.

I see China in 2023 where Japan was in 1991. Real Estate is falling apart. But in the end, the are the workbench of the world. They have Billions of people that can potentially work. Some of them are well educated and highly industrious. Japan survived so will China.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#133

Post by iancmceachern »

jsemrau wrote: post #132
meowtimemania wrote: post #103

I’m never sure if news about China’s upcoming economic problems is written because such an event is actually coming or if the media writes it just for the clicks.

I see China in 2023 where Japan was in 1991. Real Estate is falling apart. But in the end, the are the workbench of the world. They have Billions of people that can potentially work. Some of them are well educated and highly industrious. Japan survived so will China.

Where can I read more about Japan's experience at that time?

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#134

Post by raincole »

hulitu wrote: post #108

> China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan If it is "China’s property giant" why does it "files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan" ? Why not in China ?

Bankruptcy is just you admitting to the court/gov you're not going to pay your creditors, and you're ready to face the legal consequence (like reconstruction).

They filed bankruptcy in Manhattan because they are not going to pay their creditors in the US. That's it.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#135

Post by anovikov »

ksey3 wrote: post #131
anovikov wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, start with the first 10, then remaining ones will emigrate and simply assign bounty for any head of CCP member based on the rank - until the Party is eliminated. How about that? Don't underestimate the money - it goes the long way.

You think Jack Ma didnt try that?

Still, human history shows us that money always wins. People have natural instinct to acquire wealth. No political regime has remained viable for a long time if it tried to go against this instinct. Authoritarianism works fine; in fact i am even in a bit of doubt about democracy being the better social order, in any case our empirical data to confirm that is insufficient - but even authoritarian society should exploit, rather that try to suppress, this basic motivator of the people.

So far we can't see CCP making this mistake - which sort of confirms that Party has a healthy self-preservation instinct. Let's say, they are trying to do everything to avoid collapse of real estate prices because that will hit retirement savings of too many people, and they seem to accept lower rates of economic growth if that will be necessary to achieve that.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#136

Post by NovaDudely »

dmix wrote: post #126
meowtimemania wrote: post #103

I’m never sure if news about China’s upcoming economic problems is written because such an event is actually coming or if the media writes it just for the clicks.

No one else can be certain either. It's always very difficult to tell whether the numbers coming out of China are real and how "real" certain markets are. But personally I wouldn't buy into the "China is doomed" narratives that the internet loves to bring up yearly. Reality is usually far more boring and the issues (especially central gov ones) are usually far more deep rooted and survive long term like cockroaches.…

Their problems always seem to look worse than it should be but functions better than expected.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#137

Post by NovaDudely »

ricardo81 wrote: post #130
meowtimemania wrote: post #103

I’m never sure if news about China’s upcoming economic problems is written because such an event is actually coming or if the media writes it just for the clicks.

Agree, it's so hard to tell nowadays and consensus of different media outlets maybe helps. FWIW on Evergrande, I always find Patrick Boyle's channel educational and insightful. He has a few videos on the topic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXCpis_Mlwk&list=PLHC72UlhAt...

China has been tipped to fail any time now for the last 25 years. They have long term issues but they will play out over long term results. A whimper rather than a boom!

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#138

Post by Cthulhu_ »

jsemrau wrote: post #132
meowtimemania wrote: post #103

I’m never sure if news about China’s upcoming economic problems is written because such an event is actually coming or if the media writes it just for the clicks.

I see China in 2023 where Japan was in 1991. Real Estate is falling apart. But in the end, the are the workbench of the world. They have Billions of people that can potentially work. Some of them are well educated and highly industrious. Japan survived so will China.

I mean economic crashes rarely cause a country to "die", but it will have a major setback in its economy and the individual people will suffer, if they aren't already. I mean I know lots of people are suffering in the west as well, despite there being plenty of jobs available and the economy being very good.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#139

Post by throwaway4good »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #97
throwaway4good wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. 13K is technically the point where a country goes from middle to high income. 2. The Chinese economy is still growing more than most countries. 3. The US is clearly engaged in zero/negative sum economic warfare against China at the moment - for example read this article and the quoted views by admistration officials therein: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/magazine/semiconductor-ch... ‘An Act of War’: Inside Am…

The US is clearly engaged in zero/negative sum economic warfare against China I suggest that you read the history of post war trade relations between US and Japan. It was a bumpy ride! One big difference: General adherence to IP laws (China does whatever they want), plus both are democracies. Related: Do you think China can catch-up to developed world in fab tech? I do not. They are hopelessly behind.

Yes. I know the history; the US is absolutely ruthless against friend and foe in keeping its hegemony. And it has a long history of having its natsec apparatus integrated into its largest corporations.

As for China "catching up":

1. China is indeed far far behind the US-controlled West if the criteria is purely Chinese designed and manufactured semiconductors using purely Chinese designed and manufactured equipment.

2. The extreme nature of the US semiconductor blockade has surprised even me (and I was kinda expecting the worst).

However:

3. China is developing along a path already throtten by Western companies; far easier than developing on the leading edge.

4. The Chinese market (plus Russia, Iran whoever is on the US shit list) is massive. It can sponsor a lot of technological development.

In the end there is no magic in tech.

Whatever company is at the top seemingly untouchable is there because of a "natural monopoly" created by massive fixed cost and little marginal cost. History is full of tech companies that were at one point dominant but no longer is: Digital, Microsoft, Intel, Google ...

The companies that are used as chokeholds today: NVDIA, ASML, TSMC will at one point join that list. In fact using them as chokeholds probably makes it happen faster.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#140

Post by contravert »

hurril wrote: post #95
throwaway2037 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of these companies have trillions in RMB on their balance sheets. I don't understand this sentence. It is nonsensical to use balance in this way. You wrote "trillions in RMB". Let's assume (your hand-wavy use of the term) balance sheet means: outstanding debt. Further, each 1T RMB is 137B USD. How many companies in the whole world carry more than this much debt? Let alone Chine property developers? Wildly overst…

Moral hazard and inflation. If I know that I will be bailed out with a certain probability, then my actual cost of capital is much lower (since I am not expected to pay the entire volume of interest.) For instance: why not make the investors whole again instead by giving them the "printed money" instead of going through the middle-man of propping up these failed giants?

You definitely won't see anything like this in the US: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-tells-evergrande-found...

Like in 2008, bankers made a killing selling toxic products and socialized all the losses when everything came crashing down.

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