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How long ago was it spotted. That's what I'm curious about, did we have any lead time?
I'm aware that it already passed its closest approach, but what does >3% even mean? 100% is >3%, but 3.000001% is >3% too. Was an impact certain at some point and the probability degraded to a bit above 3% over the course of the asteroid's trajectory? If so, I think I'd like to have a heads up when the probability is still closer to 100%, before it drops?
I'm aware that it already passed its closest approach, but what does >3% even mean? 100% is >3%, but 3.000001% is >3% too. Was an impact certain at some point and the probability degraded to a bit above 3% over the course of the asteroid's trajectory? If so, I think I'd like to have a heads up when the probability is still closer to 100%, before it drops?
Looks pretty bad in this asteroid impact simulator: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/
How accurate is this? I just feel implicitly that a 1mi asteroid would leave a creater bigger than 30mi wide upon direct max impact ;)
Looks pretty bad in this asteroid impact simulator: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/
How accurate is this? I just feel implicitly that a 1mi asteroid would leave a creater bigger than 30mi wide upon direct max impact ;)
I gather that today or yesterday an asteroid ~400m along it's biggest dimension ultimately came within x km of earth, that was close enough there was a nontrivial chance it would hit us? And this is big enough to make a 30 mile crater? And we only found out it was coming a couple days ago? Sounds like a pretty big deal if that's accurate.
Impact time is in the past. Mission accomplished, everyone!
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/ZTm0038
Because it looks like today is the most probable day of impact at 10%, but there is a good 25%+ chance it will impact sometime in the next two weeks.