31–40 of 252 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://www.quora.com/Would-an-asteroid-measuring-400-metres... I googled your question :)
Quora is pretty much unreadable now. Is the main answer just chat gpt? That's how it seems from mobile view. The page is too noisy to navigate for me.
I'm aware that it already passed its closest approach, but what does >3% even mean? 100% is >3%, but 3.000001% is >3% too. Was an impact certain at some point and the probability degraded to a bit above 3% over the course of the asteroid's trajectory? If so, I think I'd like to have a heads up when the probability is still closer to 100%, before it drops?
Impact probability 0.034
Edit: Not familiar with the site, but I get the sense that this probability reflects the latest run. The probability hopefully gets more accurate as observations rise?
I couldn't readily figure out how to see the probability at each of the 8 observations for this one (perhaps this is the first run it's included in--all 8 observations predate this run?), but the page for actual impactors (https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys2/NEOScan/index_past_imp.h...) at least implies that accuracy may improves with each (and then maybe flip to 0/100?)
I plugged this into neal.fun/asteroid-launcher. I'm not sure if I did it right (I used the 15.84 km/s as impact speed, picked 45 deg impact, and an iron asteroid). It's certainly serious - millions dead - especially if it hits Manhattan as neal.fun seems to invite you doing, but not world-ending.
https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/cgi-bin/crater.cgi?dist=100&diam...
4 mile crater, 2300 MT of TNT equiv. so about 45 Tsar Bombas.
I plugged this into neal.fun/asteroid-launcher. I'm not sure if I did it right (I used the 15.84 km/s as impact speed, picked 45 deg impact, and an iron asteroid). It's certainly serious - millions dead - especially if it hits Manhattan as neal.fun seems to invite you doing, but not world-ending.
Looks pretty bad in this asteroid impact simulator: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/
I'm aware that it already passed its closest approach, but what does >3% even mean? 100% is >3%, but 3.000001% is >3% too. Was an impact certain at some point and the probability degraded to a bit above 3% over the course of the asteroid's trajectory? If so, I think I'd like to have a heads up when the probability is still closer to 100%, before it drops?
So it was just an odd choice of title by the poster.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://www.quora.com/Would-an-asteroid-measuring-400-metres... I googled your question :)
Quora is pretty much unreadable now. Is the main answer just chat gpt? That's how it seems from mobile view. The page is too noisy to navigate for me.
I'm aware that it already passed its closest approach, but what does >3% even mean? 100% is >3%, but 3.000001% is >3% too. Was an impact certain at some point and the probability degraded to a bit above 3% over the course of the asteroid's trajectory? If so, I think I'd like to have a heads up when the probability is still closer to 100%, before it drops?
I guess OP decided to abbreviate to >3% instead of writing 3.4%
Personally I would’ve written ~3%
I'm aware that it already passed its closest approach, but what does >3% even mean? 100% is >3%, but 3.000001% is >3% too. Was an impact certain at some point and the probability degraded to a bit above 3% over the course of the asteroid's trajectory? If so, I think I'd like to have a heads up when the probability is still closer to 100%, before it drops?