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Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

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Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#41

Post by ars »

didgeoridoo wrote: post #32
chc wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can see, there are very, very few disasters that would render Earth less inhabitable than Mars but not also destroy Mars in the process. Even if Earth were reduced to a cold, lifeless rock with almost no atmosphere or water, high radiation levels and almost all sources of energy gone (including geothermal and wind energy and things as simple as burning wood), that would just put it in the same ballpark as…

The scenario that comes to mind is a massive asteroid impact, but your final sentence sums up the objection nicely: identifying and redirecting a space rock seems at least an order of magnitude less difficult & technologically distant than building a self-sustaining colony on Mars.

Even the worst asteroid impact would not render the planet uninhabitable. It might kill lots of people, but it wouldn't kill all of them.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#42

Post by chc »

ramidarigaz wrote: post #36
chc wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're going to survive on Mars, you already need the ability to sustainably disconnect yourself from the surrounding atmosphere (we don't know of any virus that's as lethal as lack of air), so just apply your putative Mars tech to Earth.

Air is just one of many possible infection pathways. You would also need to quarantine people, food shipments, water supplies, equipment.

Food shipments? Water supplies? We're talking about the kind of technology that would allow you to live on Mars. If you need to rely on those, then 1) Your Martian colony is not really independent and thus doesn't carry any survival benefits, and thus 2) You're wasting resources shipping them to Mars. If you don't need those for your Martian colony, then why would you need them for your Earth colony?

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#43

Post by ars »

ceejayoz wrote: post #15
Cushman wrote: post #11

I'm with Carl Sagan. Visit? Yes. Settle? Not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand. Not that there's anything wrong with wanting to go to Mars as a hobby, as a tourist-- if that's how you want to spend your billions, fine. But I worry that too many impatient sci-fi lovers see space travel as some way to escape from the problems of Earth, which it will never be. If we can't figure ou…

Right now, an asteroid could wipe out humanity with pretty minimal warning. There's something major to be said for at least a small self-sustaining colony somewhere else.

> Right now, an asteroid could wipe out humanity with pretty minimal warning

That isn't true. There are no asteroids big enough to do that, that we haven't seen. The asteroid risk is a regional one, not a global one.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#44

Post by ars »

ceejayoz wrote: post #40
rbanffy wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of them had to take their own air.

Mars colonists won't need to, either.

They might not take it, but they would have to make it. Almost no free oxygen on mars.

But making oxygen (from rocks presumably) uses lots of energy (electricity - it's basically the same process used to make aluminium from ore).

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#45

Post by cpeterso »

rbanffy wrote: post #5

Mars is a very harsh environment - and it's very far from Earth (6 months best case with current propulsion technology). I'd suggest a permanent base on the Moon as a useful first step - it has some water, abundant energy, plenty of Aluminum, Magnesium, Titanium and a lack of atmosphere that makes metallurgy easy. Radiation is worse than Mars, but, in both cases, buried housing structures make sense and the Moon's lo…

The moon may have fewer natural resources than Mars, but it seems strange to not practice building habitats in the Earth's backyard. "Lunarcrete" is one way to build bunkers (using materials already on the moon) that keep out gamma rays and extreme surface temperatures.

The moon is also close enough that I could imagine a private company like Virgin Galactic building lunar resorts in a couple decades. :D

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#46

Post by zeteo »

chc wrote: post #27
ramidarigaz wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insurance for humanity against disaster is a small ROI? Not trying to offend, but how do you define ROI of a colony on Mars?

As far as I can see, there are very, very few disasters that would render Earth less inhabitable than Mars but not also destroy Mars in the process. Even if Earth were reduced to a cold, lifeless rock with almost no atmosphere or water, high radiation levels and almost all sources of energy gone (including geothermal and wind energy and things as simple as burning wood), that would just put it in the same ballpark as…

The concern is not a disaster that necessarily destroys Earth itself - an extinction event for humans is enough. There are plenty of species that have gone extinct before (including some close relatives) and since it's obviously never happened to us we have little idea of its shape or likelihood.

The very distance that makes Mars so hard to reach would be good protection against such an unexpected event (whether it's unintended effects of scientific experiments, novel WMDs, grey goo etc.). There is no way to create a similarly isolated colony on Earth, even if we discount the problem that nobody would want to live in such a place. (As opposed to the many people, reared on SciFi, who would volunteer for Mars quite eagerly.)

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#47

Post by ars »

zerostar07 wrote: post #29

This is remarkable, but is going to Mars really our most challenging goal, our raison d'etre as humanity? Given the choice between being either the First human on mars or the First machine-augmented-human what would you choose?

Is there some reason these are mutually exclusive?

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#48

Post by JoeAltmaier »

Cushman wrote: post #20
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say that with authority. Care to share your reasoning? Folks went as far (in terms of travel time) to desolate places to make a future before. You are likely descended from some of them.

No human being has ever settled in a place which was not previously the habitat of a billion years of successful organic life-- and we have failed to settle in a number of places which are. To think of Mars as just the new New World is a romantic idea, but there is no basis for the comparison. Populating another world will be the most significant undertaking of humanity by orders of magnitude; to assume it can be don…

We're smart. We live almost entirely in structures and cities that are very remote from the idyllic world you describe. When was the last time you saw your food grow?

There are technological hurdles to living on Mars, but not much we already don't know how to handle. Food, water, air - that's the minimum, and thats not all that hard given raw materials and energy, which is abundant on Mars.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#49

Post by JoeAltmaier »

ars wrote: post #44
ceejayoz wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mars colonists won't need to, either.

They might not take it, but they would have to make it. Almost no free oxygen on mars. But making oxygen (from rocks presumably) uses lots of energy (electricity - it's basically the same process used to make aluminium from ore).

Which is abundant on Mars as solar energy, with its thin atmosphere.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#50

Post by JoeAltmaier »

zerostar07 wrote: post #29

This is remarkable, but is going to Mars really our most challenging goal, our raison d'etre as humanity? Given the choice between being either the First human on mars or the First machine-augmented-human what would you choose?

Let's not choose between artificial dilemmas. Do them all.
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