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Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

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Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#11

Post by Cushman »

I'm with Carl Sagan.

Visit? Yes. Settle? Not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand.

Not that there's anything wrong with wanting to go to Mars as a hobby, as a tourist-- if that's how you want to spend your billions, fine. But I worry that too many impatient sci-fi lovers see space travel as some way to escape from the problems of Earth, which it will never be. If we can't figure out how to live sustainably on Earth, humanity will perish long before we have any realistic possibility of emigrating.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#12

Post by jpdoctor »

Shivetya wrote: post #7
nathanbarry wrote: post #2

I love the last line: “I would definitely like to go to Mars. I think it would be cool to be born on Earth and die on Mars,” he said as the night wrapped. “Hopefully, not at the point of impact.”

I will take his grandest adventure line coupled with the part about, there will always be problems on Earth and waiting for a time there isn't will never come. Far too many people criticize lavish dreams such as what Musk has but that is what separates the watchers from the doers.

> lavish dreams such as what Musk has but that is what separates the watchers from the doers.

?? Not sure of your meaning: Dreams are usually the domain of the watchers, expertise and hard work are usually the domain of the doers. Musk has demonstrated expertise and hard work, but in a different area; here he is a dreamer. Is that what you meant?

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#13

Post by JoeAltmaier »

Cushman wrote: post #11

I'm with Carl Sagan. Visit? Yes. Settle? Not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand. Not that there's anything wrong with wanting to go to Mars as a hobby, as a tourist-- if that's how you want to spend your billions, fine. But I worry that too many impatient sci-fi lovers see space travel as some way to escape from the problems of Earth, which it will never be. If we can't figure ou…

You say that with authority. Care to share your reasoning? Folks went as far (in terms of travel time) to desolate places to make a future before. You are likely descended from some of them.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#14

Post by JoeAltmaier »

ceejayoz wrote: post #6
rbanffy wrote: post #5

Mars is a very harsh environment - and it's very far from Earth (6 months best case with current propulsion technology). I'd suggest a permanent base on the Moon as a useful first step - it has some water, abundant energy, plenty of Aluminum, Magnesium, Titanium and a lack of atmosphere that makes metallurgy easy. Radiation is worse than Mars, but, in both cases, buried housing structures make sense and the Moon's lo…

> If someone on Mars manages to, say, contaminate the colony's water supply, all we can do is record farewell messages for loved ones and deal with the bad publicity for decades. I wouldn't like that. The same is true for a major disaster at the South Pole in winter, though. There's a several month period in which vehicles cannot reach the pole due to the temperatures and weather involved. We still go there.

Or in an African village. It doesn't take distance to maroon someone with no means.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#15

Post by ceejayoz »

Cushman wrote: post #11

I'm with Carl Sagan. Visit? Yes. Settle? Not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand. Not that there's anything wrong with wanting to go to Mars as a hobby, as a tourist-- if that's how you want to spend your billions, fine. But I worry that too many impatient sci-fi lovers see space travel as some way to escape from the problems of Earth, which it will never be. If we can't figure ou…

Right now, an asteroid could wipe out humanity with pretty minimal warning. There's something major to be said for at least a small self-sustaining colony somewhere else.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#16

Post by stevear »

A good leader sets a goal that is outside of our comfort zone and little by little works towards achieving those goals. Along the way, as steady progress is made, that once lofty goal starts to become more reasonable and others start to buy in. This seems to be the approach Elon has taken with Tesla and SpaceX. From personal experience I can tell you that simply making these lofty goals has attracted a lot of young, idealistic folk that are willing to put in a lot of sweat to show that this kind of stuff is within our reach.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#17

Post by troymc »

rbanffy wrote: post #5

Mars is a very harsh environment - and it's very far from Earth (6 months best case with current propulsion technology). I'd suggest a permanent base on the Moon as a useful first step - it has some water, abundant energy, plenty of Aluminum, Magnesium, Titanium and a lack of atmosphere that makes metallurgy easy. Radiation is worse than Mars, but, in both cases, buried housing structures make sense and the Moon's lo…

The Aldrin cycler requires fuel to keep it going around the sun (with periodic flybys of Earth and Mars).

In principle, each Earth flyby is used to rotate the orbit so that it goes to Mars, but the problem with the Aldrin cycler is that the required flyby distance is too close to Earth: it's smaller than Earth's radius! As a result, rocket fuel is required to give it the required extra kick.

But there are other Earth-Mars cycler trajectories! One of my projects in grad school was to investigate them, and there are some that really can keep going without spending fuel (except for minor adjustments). In particular, the so-called "Ballistic S1L1" cycler is very promising. Here's a paper about it:

McConaghy, T. Troy, Landau, Damon F., Yam, Chit Hong, and Longuski, James, M., “Notable Two-Synodic-Period Earth-Mars Cycler,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 43, No. 2, March–April 2006, pp. 456–465.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#18

Post by rbanffy »

arethuza wrote: post #9
rbanffy wrote: post #5

Mars is a very harsh environment - and it's very far from Earth (6 months best case with current propulsion technology). I'd suggest a permanent base on the Moon as a useful first step - it has some water, abundant energy, plenty of Aluminum, Magnesium, Titanium and a lack of atmosphere that makes metallurgy easy. Radiation is worse than Mars, but, in both cases, buried housing structures make sense and the Moon's lo…

If you compare it with 19th century polar expeditions, a trip to Mars doesn't look that bad. They sometimes took multiple years, with men trapped in iced up ships, usually with no chance of rescue or even communication - at least we know how to prevent scurvy now! Have a read of the book "Barrow's Boys: A Stirring Story of Daring, Fortitude, and Outright Lunacy": http://www.amazon.com/Barrows-Boys-Stirring-Fortitude-…

An expedition to Mars would cost a lot more, with a much smaller expected ROI. I too would love the idea of going to Mars, but, in order to build a sustainable colony, you'd need to put in place a whole lot of infrastructure to make interplanetary travel cheaper. And, right now, it's not even feasible.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#19

Post by rbanffy »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #13
Cushman wrote: post #11

I'm with Carl Sagan. Visit? Yes. Settle? Not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand. Not that there's anything wrong with wanting to go to Mars as a hobby, as a tourist-- if that's how you want to spend your billions, fine. But I worry that too many impatient sci-fi lovers see space travel as some way to escape from the problems of Earth, which it will never be. If we can't figure ou…

You say that with authority. Care to share your reasoning? Folks went as far (in terms of travel time) to desolate places to make a future before. You are likely descended from some of them.

None of them had to take their own air.

Re: Why Elon Musk Wants To Bring People to Mars—and Go There Himself

#20

Post by Cushman »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #13
Cushman wrote: post #11

I'm with Carl Sagan. Visit? Yes. Settle? Not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand. Not that there's anything wrong with wanting to go to Mars as a hobby, as a tourist-- if that's how you want to spend your billions, fine. But I worry that too many impatient sci-fi lovers see space travel as some way to escape from the problems of Earth, which it will never be. If we can't figure ou…

You say that with authority. Care to share your reasoning? Folks went as far (in terms of travel time) to desolate places to make a future before. You are likely descended from some of them.

No human being has ever settled in a place which was not previously the habitat of a billion years of successful organic life-- and we have failed to settle in a number of places which are.

To think of Mars as just the new New World is a romantic idea, but there is no basis for the comparison. Populating another world will be the most significant undertaking of humanity by orders of magnitude; to assume it can be done while it remains to be seen whether we can survive as a species on a planet with an atmosphere which is exactly what we breathe, which is made of as much water as we are, of the same phase ours is, where food grows in the ground all by itself and we are nearly completely protected from debris large and small, and with a legacy of billions of years to prove it can be done-- well, I'd ask to know your reasoning.

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