Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink • Hacker News Board

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#51

Post by happytiger » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 6:39 PM UTC

ChatGTP wrote: post #43

14 wrote: post #19

[flagged]

I think this is a bit unfair, evryone in the west has profited incredibly from China, greatly, and while I don't like the CCP at all, I think it's really sad the people of China who basically built the last 30 years, will be on the receiving end of a potential major financial collapse and are less likely to profit from their hard work and sacrifice. For the world, this is all bad news, China may not have the money to…

A fine road was extended, and it became a one way street.

As always the people pay the price for the governments inabilities.

Hence why, in general principle, governments should always be accountable to the people.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#52

Post by proxiful-wash » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 6:40 PM UTC

cs702 wrote: post #35

By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party adamantly insists otherwise -- but that's always to be expected from politicians. We ought to consider only the data, not what they say. The data looks and smells really bad. My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push China away…

I mean this would be good for the whole planet, if only we got stop the 10 cent army today instead of 40 years from now when they have poisoned discourse for the whole planet.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#53

Post by porkbeer » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 6:47 PM UTC

bushbaba wrote: post #17

fnordpiglet wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The overproduction of housing and other real estate in China has been a clear bubble that must eventually burst for at least 15 years. I’ve been stunned consistently they’ve managed to stave off the inevitable for this long. There are entire sections of cities that are entirely devoid of residents, entire sky scrapers empty - entire blocks upon blocks of empty sky scrapers. It could be waved away as long as growth wa…

Could say the same about nyc.

Nyc is a bubble of a different sort, and seems to be managed better and with more long-term focus, no matter how over-leveraged it is.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#54

Post by porkbeer » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 6:51 PM UTC

meiraleal wrote: post #24

undefinedland wrote: post #23

[flagged]

I'm wondering if you are a hateful CCP supporter or a troll pretending to be a hateful CCP supporter.

Past comments should make it obvious. Although I did expect the wumao to show up by now.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#55

Post by thedudeabides5 » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 7:10 PM UTC

DrDroop wrote: post #11

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #7

Are these "Chinese Trust Companies" like family offices in the US? The description in the article made me think so, just trying to understand what the equivalent is in Western markets.

My understanding is that is that in the Chinese system of commercial paper (corporate depth) not only is the company responsible for paying back the money but anyone who ever held and sold that piece of paper. These trusts are a type of (shadow) bank that manage this risk.

Yes, a trust is a non-bank financial institution that is responsible for packaging risk or directly extending credit to for example, local real estate / development projects.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#56

Post by nonrepeating » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 7:22 PM UTC

SllX wrote: post #14

jqpabc123 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did Xi hijack the CCP --- or did the CCP try to hijack capitalism and Xi is just their frontman?

Prior to the most recent National Congress of the CCP, the General Secretary of the CCP and Paramount Leader of the PRC would only serve two terms of 5 years. Xi Jinping is now in his third term. He also made a show of having his immediate predecessor dragged out of the proceedings without explanation, and so Hu Jintao was unable to cast any votes. When the voting was all said and done, Xi Jinping was retained for a…

That's an interesting question. The Economist attempted to answer it with their series "The Prince" (https://www.economist.com/theprincepod), and I believe their conclusion is that Xi has indeed consolidated power around himself and is nearly an autocrat at this point. Two provisos on this, however:

- The author, Sue-Lin Wong, is something of an outsider, and outsider reporting on China typically misses some subtleties of the real situation in the country.

- Given the nature of China, there will never be a fully autocratic leader there, though it may appear that way to some, and the would-be autocrat might be deluded into thinking they are.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#57

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 7:50 PM UTC

cs702 wrote: post #35

By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party adamantly insists otherwise -- but that's always to be expected from politicians. We ought to consider only the data, not what they say. The data looks and smells really bad. My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push China away…

[deleted]

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#58

Post by dirtyid » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 7:50 PM UTC

IIT PRC collapcist think some how CCP proactively managing economic risks with 5% growth is a sign of collapse, almost every other major economy is in recession by that standard. Like tech crackdown, three redlines on real estate, local gov deleveraging, cracking down on bad banks (henan), and now Trust drama - they're problems PRC regulators has been seeking out to manage because they have the economic and political headroom to do so. And they can do so relatively responsibly, i.e. actual deleverage, and punish bad actors, not just print dollars/bail out like US (due to dollar privilege), precisely because CCP has political power to push unpopular interventions without breaking the economy. They don't always take, but they're more powerful levers/tools than what democracy offers. The very fact that this article is about Trust Companies trying to circumvent regulators means PRC still needs more authoritarianism, not less.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#59

Post by hero_antagonist » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 8:00 PM UTC

I would not trust anything written about China. They’ve become masterful at deception. They want to have this image that they are weak and limping as they slowly take over the West.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#60

Post by kwere » Sat, Aug 12, 2023, 8:03 PM UTC

wwtdtgotiatl wrote: post #48

fnordpiglet wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NYC vacancy rates are single digit, while Shanghai is around 15% and Nanning is around 25%. It’s incomparable. Imagine if 25% of the apartments in NYC were completely vacant. https://landgeist.com/2021/11/04/housing-vacancy-rate-in-chi...

Sounds absolutely great, since when is having a surplus of basic needs a bad thing? if a country produces too much food, water or electrity everyone thinks its great, but somehow housing is different? What would majority of NYC residents who rent think of that market?

that overcapacity is built on credit to developers and home buyers. Most of these loans extimate a bubble level price of decades of earnings of average household (should be 2-5 times your income), justified by the old speculative rush to flip the property to the next speculator few years down the line. The toy is broken and a lot of families cant even afford the interest on the loan. Banks and regulators are freaking out. Developers are also overleveraged, sold a lot of offplans properties that the bank cant even seize bcs these projects never got built/finished.