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Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

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11–20 of 73 posts

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#11

Are these "Chinese Trust Companies" like family offices in the US? The description in the article made me think so, just trying to understand what the equivalent is in Western markets.

My understanding is that is that in the Chinese system of commercial paper (corporate depth) not only is the company responsible for paying back the money but anyone who ever held and sold that piece of paper. These trusts are a type of (shadow) bank that manage this risk.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#12

Make business, not war. Not my advice but the advice of Jack Ma. You know, the guy the CCP effectively stripped of most of his influence for warning them about problems with China's banking and regulatory system.

The problem is that Xi hijacked the CCP. He’s now on his way to transitioning China back to socialism and a centrally planned economy.

[dead]

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that Xi hijacked the CCP. He’s now on his way to transitioning China back to socialism and a centrally planned economy.

Did Xi hijack the CCP --- or did the CCP try to hijack capitalism and Xi is just their frontman?

Prior to the most recent National Congress of the CCP, the General Secretary of the CCP and Paramount Leader of the PRC would only serve two terms of 5 years. Xi Jinping is now in his third term. He also made a show of having his immediate predecessor dragged out of the proceedings without explanation, and so Hu Jintao was unable to cast any votes.

When the voting was all said and done, Xi Jinping was retained for a third term as Chairman Winnie the Pooh; and Li Zhanusa who appeared visibly upset and attempted to help Hu Jintao until being pulled back by Wang Huning and Li Keqiang of the Hu faction were not retained for the 20th Central Committee.

In order to show Hu Jintao was not disappeared, he was later appointed to oversee the funeral proceedings of his own immediate predecessor, Jiang Zemin, over 35 other people who were ahead of him on a list of people to oversee the proceedings.

So you tell us, did Chairman Winnie the Pooh here hijack the CCP or is he just their frontman?

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#15

For some fascinating background on China's present economic troubles check out this 11 August 2023 opinion piece in The Guardian by George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-econo...

The overproduction of housing and other real estate in China has been a clear bubble that must eventually burst for at least 15 years. I’ve been stunned consistently they’ve managed to stave off the inevitable for this long. There are entire sections of cities that are entirely devoid of residents, entire sky scrapers empty - entire blocks upon blocks of empty sky scrapers. It could be waved away as long as growth was astronomical. But with weaker global demand, domestic demand waning, and almost every company figuring out their China production exit in some way or another, it’s bound to pop some day soon.

My worry is chinas instability economically leads to political instability leads to wars to distract and focus away from the man behind the curtain.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#16

For some fascinating background on China's present economic troubles check out this 11 August 2023 opinion piece in The Guardian by George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-econo...

The overproduction of housing and other real estate in China has been a clear bubble that must eventually burst for at least 15 years. I’ve been stunned consistently they’ve managed to stave off the inevitable for this long. There are entire sections of cities that are entirely devoid of residents, entire sky scrapers empty - entire blocks upon blocks of empty sky scrapers. It could be waved away as long as growth wa…

One must remember that back in 2015, China established capital controls on the yuan.

That + the pandemic (a massive, epic increase in money supply and cheap credit) helped China keep that going.

AFAIK China's housing bubble began in 2008, after the housing bubbles of the West stopped giving China the growth it needed so much. So yeah, they kept the bubble going for long (and they're still trying to "soft-land" the economy, but I don't believe there's a soft-landing possible that doesn't lead to a Japan situation).

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#17

For some fascinating background on China's present economic troubles check out this 11 August 2023 opinion piece in The Guardian by George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-econo...

The overproduction of housing and other real estate in China has been a clear bubble that must eventually burst for at least 15 years. I’ve been stunned consistently they’ve managed to stave off the inevitable for this long. There are entire sections of cities that are entirely devoid of residents, entire sky scrapers empty - entire blocks upon blocks of empty sky scrapers. It could be waved away as long as growth wa…

Could say the same about nyc.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#18

For some fascinating background on China's present economic troubles check out this 11 August 2023 opinion piece in The Guardian by George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-econo...

Kyle Bass had a great tweet recently on this too:

China's REPORTED GDP 'growth' for 2022 was +2.9%. In a year where Chinese LNG demand was down 22%, their real estate market (which represents 33% of Chinese GDP) was in the midst of a collapse, literally welding Chinese citizens into their apartment buildings, and the WeChat payments flowing through their system were down over 20% yoy. In 2023, YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT is somewhere between 20% and 50%, 48 local governments are in some stage of default on their debt (LGFV debt is approximately $10trillion or just under 60% of GDP), the majority of Chinese property developers are in default of their dollar bonds (71% are in default of over $180 billion in bonds), Xi has ordered all corporate and macro level dat to be severed to the West, and the Chinese government is reporting +5.5% GDP 'GROWTH'?! Reputable economists don't believe these numbers from the CPC

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