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Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

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Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#41

Post by jamesaurichs »

cs702 wrote: post #35

By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party adamantly insists otherwise -- but that's always to be expected from politicians. We ought to consider only the data, not what they say. The data looks and smells really bad. My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push China away…

With numbers like 1.) YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT is somewhere between 20% and 50%, 2.) 95% decrease in FDI https://unherd.com/thepost/foreign-investment-plummets-as-th... 3.) double digit plunge in import and export in July https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-p... 4.) negative CPI

I would call it what it is: China is in a great depression

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#42

Post by tibbydudeza »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #15
cf100clunk wrote: post #13

For some fascinating background on China's present economic troubles check out this 11 August 2023 opinion piece in The Guardian by George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-econo...

The overproduction of housing and other real estate in China has been a clear bubble that must eventually burst for at least 15 years. I’ve been stunned consistently they’ve managed to stave off the inevitable for this long. There are entire sections of cities that are entirely devoid of residents, entire sky scrapers empty - entire blocks upon blocks of empty sky scrapers. It could be waved away as long as growth wa…

Tofu Dreg projects - who wants to live in apartments built like tissue paper ???.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#43

Post by ChatGTP »

14 wrote: post #19

[flagged]

I think this is a bit unfair, evryone in the west has profited incredibly from China, greatly, and while I don't like the CCP at all, I think it's really sad the people of China who basically built the last 30 years, will be on the receiving end of a potential major financial collapse and are less likely to profit from their hard work and sacrifice.

For the world, this is all bad news, China may not have the money to at least clean up some of the toxic waste land and again it might end up costing everyone on earth dearly.

China is also a major trade partner for a lot of countries so they might be heavily impacted by this news too.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#44

Post by nradov »

cs702 wrote: post #35

By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party adamantly insists otherwise -- but that's always to be expected from politicians. We ought to consider only the data, not what they say. The data looks and smells really bad. My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push China away…

Regardless of the political and economic issues, the CCP leadership is well aware that they still lack the amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan's main island. It will take a few more years at least to build that capacity. In the mean time if they choose to make a push it will likely be toward some of the smaller islands closer to the mainland.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#45

Post by unstatusthequo »

jamesaurichs wrote: post #41
cs702 wrote: post #35

By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party adamantly insists otherwise -- but that's always to be expected from politicians. We ought to consider only the data, not what they say. The data looks and smells really bad. My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push China away…

With numbers like 1.) YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT is somewhere between 20% and 50%, 2.) 95% decrease in FDI https://unherd.com/thepost/foreign-investment-plummets-as-th... 3.) double digit plunge in import and export in July https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-p... 4.) negative CPI I would call it what it is: China is in a great depression

And assume any number they provide to the “outside” is also exaggerated in their favor. So I assume any number provided is at least, a best case figure, or total invention.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#46

Post by christkv »

nradov wrote: post #44
cs702 wrote: post #35

By many measures, China looks and smells like it's already in the early stages of a major financial crisis and deep recession.[a] Publicly, the ruling party adamantly insists otherwise -- but that's always to be expected from politicians. We ought to consider only the data, not what they say. The data looks and smells really bad. My biggest hope is that the economic pain will induce soul-searching and push China away…

Regardless of the political and economic issues, the CCP leadership is well aware that they still lack the amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan's main island. It will take a few more years at least to build that capacity. In the mean time if they choose to make a push it will likely be toward some of the smaller islands closer to the mainland.

Any move towards the smaller island will most likely trigger an American buildup of forces on Taiwan itself.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#48

Post by wwtdtgotiatl »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #36
bushbaba wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could say the same about nyc.

NYC vacancy rates are single digit, while Shanghai is around 15% and Nanning is around 25%. It’s incomparable. Imagine if 25% of the apartments in NYC were completely vacant. https://landgeist.com/2021/11/04/housing-vacancy-rate-in-chi...

Sounds absolutely great, since when is having a surplus of basic needs a bad thing? if a country produces too much food, water or electrity everyone thinks its great, but somehow housing is different?

What would majority of NYC residents who rent think of that market?

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#49

Post by CyberDildonics »

wwtdtgotiatl wrote: post #48
fnordpiglet wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NYC vacancy rates are single digit, while Shanghai is around 15% and Nanning is around 25%. It’s incomparable. Imagine if 25% of the apartments in NYC were completely vacant. https://landgeist.com/2021/11/04/housing-vacancy-rate-in-chi...

Sounds absolutely great, since when is having a surplus of basic needs a bad thing? if a country produces too much food, water or electrity everyone thinks its great, but somehow housing is different? What would majority of NYC residents who rent think of that market?

since when is having a surplus of basic needs a bad thing?

When there was economy destroying debt used to create it and people aren't buying.

The problem is debt and you are only looking at the comment you replied to, not what the thread is talking about.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#50

Post by happytiger »

progrus wrote: post #6

Let’s hope that a better system comes out of all of this chaos.

Here here’s This is a key point.

Even without all this, the world’s existing systems of Government have a challenge ahead of them with emerging digital intelligence.

We rarely can predict or even conceive of the next era when the previous era is in retrograde before big changes, though people like to pretend it’s all very linear and predictable in history books.

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