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Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

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Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#21

Post by ssabev »

jamesaurichs wrote: post #18
cf100clunk wrote: post #13

For some fascinating background on China's present economic troubles check out this 11 August 2023 opinion piece in The Guardian by George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-econo...

Kyle Bass had a great tweet recently on this too: China's REPORTED GDP 'growth' for 2022 was +2.9%. In a year where Chinese LNG demand was down 22%, their real estate market (which represents 33% of Chinese GDP) was in the midst of a collapse, literally welding Chinese citizens into their apartment buildings, and the WeChat payments flowing through their system were down over 20% yoy. In 2023, YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT is s…

Seems legit to me. 11/10 investment opportunity. /s

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#25

Post by meiraleal »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #20
14 wrote: post #19

[flagged]

I really wish I could enjoy China. But the downsides of being a Western in China are too big and since it's somewhat rooted in the culture by now ( arbitrary laws), I shouldn't go... Ever

There are millions of Americans doing business in China, 2 Michael's in jail isn't something that can be considered an arbitrary law as much as Canada keeping a Chinese citizen in jail.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#27

Post by mrweasel »

14 wrote: post #19

[flagged]

> China is their own worst enemy

They truly are. They could make anything, yet they choose to make junk and attempt to scam everyone at any opportunity. It's a surprising immoral country for someone who view themselves as being on the moral high horse. And they know that they are a nation of scammers, because what do they buy when visiting Europe? Baby formula and designer brands, because they don't trust the stores in China. Seems like a weird way to run a country.

China continues to insist that the rest of the world respect it and its culture, while making zero effort into understanding or respecting any other culture. Why we keep listing to the CCP is beyond me, the west should have cut it's loses more than a decade ago.

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#28

Post by yorwba »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #3

Make business, not war. Not my advice but the advice of Jack Ma. You know, the guy the CCP effectively stripped of most of his influence for warning them about problems with China's banking and regulatory system.

Jack Ma said that China should "not worry about financial systemic risks" and warned about "Collateralization with a pawnshop mentality" https://interconnected.blog/jack-ma-bund-finance-summit-spee... because Ant Financial was making uncollateralized loans on a huge scale, something they were only able to do because they weren't subject to the same regulations as established financial institutions, and this was about to change.

With Ant Financial being just another regulated lender, there was no way to justify their inflated valuation and by proxy the valuation of parent company Alibaba. Hence the sharp decrease in stock price.

So I think you have your causality backwards: Alibaba didn't lose value because of Jack Ma's warning, rather the "problem" with China's regulatory system he was warning about was that it was going to make Alibaba lose value.

(And invoking his advice when another financial systemic risk is rearing its head might not be the most appropriate.)

Re: Chinese Trust Companies on the Brink

#29

Post by meiraleal »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #15
cf100clunk wrote: post #13

For some fascinating background on China's present economic troubles check out this 11 August 2023 opinion piece in The Guardian by George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/11/china-econo...

The overproduction of housing and other real estate in China has been a clear bubble that must eventually burst for at least 15 years. I’ve been stunned consistently they’ve managed to stave off the inevitable for this long. There are entire sections of cities that are entirely devoid of residents, entire sky scrapers empty - entire blocks upon blocks of empty sky scrapers. It could be waved away as long as growth wa…

[flagged]
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