Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures • Hacker News Board

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#131

Post by delecti » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:10 AM UTC

taftster wrote: post #59

dmbche wrote: post #2

Related article from 2018 if anyone wants to read more : https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/01/22/67402/were-about...

Thank you. I honestly had no context for the discussion, the linked tweet didn't really much help. This article helped clear up the concept and I appreciate the link.

The first tweet has a picture (graph) that shows the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly data over the past few decades, and the data for so far in 2023 is significantly higher than any previous year. That's the context.

The linked tweet was also the first in a thread which went on to establish the rest of what people are discussing. Twitter only shows the first tweet if you're not logged in though, so you may have reasonably thought it didn't continue beyond that.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#132

Post by raggi » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:11 AM UTC

brutusborn wrote: post #116

raggi wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/community-projects/lens2

It doesn’t sound like their sulphate correction was due to policy changes. Do you know how this model went with this years predictions?

I do not, this is not my area of expertise. Cross integrations are ongoing, for example the model presented in https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/11707/2011/acp-11-117... (among others) was cross integrated for CESM2 by relatively recent contributions: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/8669/2022/ (the latter incidentally explains some of the challenges)

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#133

Post by joecool1029 » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:16 AM UTC

https://nitter.net/hankgreen/status/1687535525169930241 (working link for those without account)

It's an interesting observation but I would want to know if bunker emissions from ships matched coal emissions from high sulfur coal or diesel emissions prior to the around year 2007 transition from low sulfur diesel to ultra low sulfur diesel had as much of an impact. Remember there was a huge concern for acid rain in the 1980's and 1990's and cutting atmospheric SO2 pretty much eliminated it.

Not discounting that coal is terrible for lots of reasons but there's a ton of variability on types of coal. One of the core reasons the coal industry pulled out of Appalachia is there were lower-sulfur deposits out in Wyoming... Some gov data: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37752

EDIT: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/emissions-of-... Transportation is a small % of emissions compared to energy generation. There's been a regional shift though as North America moved to sulfur controls earlier for energy generation (1990) than Europe, and Asia has begun to climb as these regions went into decline.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#134

Post by RandomLensman » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:17 AM UTC

coffeebeqn wrote: post #128

RandomLensman wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In order to break the planet a lot more is necessary. We created some problems but the planet is far from broken.

The planet will be fine. People, animals, plants in many countries will be fucked though.

I don't share that pessimistic outlook. Lots of things already happening.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#135

Post by lostlogin » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:18 AM UTC

BenFranklin100 wrote: post #23

Either the world accepts that nuclear energy along with wind and solar is part of the solution to climate change, or we will be forced into geoengineering solutions. We may have already reached that point.

Based on the tweet (is that what we call them?), wouldn’t super crappy oil burning power stations be a temporary solution?

What a time to be alive.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#136

Post by epivosism » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:24 AM UTC

uxamanda wrote: post #60

For anyone interested in a near-future sci-fi look at how sulfur as a form of geoengineering might play out, check out out Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson[0]. The title[1] refers to what happens when you suddenly stop an effort like that... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Termination_Shock_(novel) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering#Maintenan...

Read counts:

  Snow Crash (3) 
  The Diamond Age (1) 
  Anathem (2) 
  Cryptonomicon (3/4) 
  Baroque cycle (2/3) 
  Seveneves (2) 
  Reamde (2) 
  The rise and fall of D.O.D.O (9/10) 
  Fall or Dodge in hell (1/2) 
  Termination shock (1/3)

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#137

Post by epivosism » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:25 AM UTC

zwily wrote: post #119

siwatanejo wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still kinda surprised that no novel from Neal have become films or TV shows yet.

There’s been talk of a Seveneves movie or mini series for years….

The final 1/3 of the book would be an amazing role-playing scenario. When you think about it, it's almost designed that way. The underground area, the floaters, the various "classes" of people we meet, their interesting combinations...

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#138

Post by ericjmorey » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:26 AM UTC

HardlyCurious wrote: post #84

montalbano wrote: post #77

A better wording for the title: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships has reduced masking of global warming The word 'cause' in current title seems wrong.

In terms of total global heat content sure. In terms of surface ocean temp, I'm not so sure you have a point. It's a pretty indirect path for greenhouse gasses to heat the ocean, and they can't push the water above the temp of their air. Less shade however can cause solar heating well above air temperatures.

I don't know that you've considered the effects of more vs less ice covering the ocean.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#139

Post by epivosism » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:27 AM UTC

mdekkers wrote: post #120

forgetfreeman wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Global overpopulation is absolutely a part of the equation, and everyone is deeply uncomfortable talking about it because there are no palatable solutions to that specific problem. Humans, as a species, exhibit all the damaging properties of a cancerous growth, and our habitat can no longer support us. As George Carlin said: the planet will be fine, it’s the humans that are fucked!

This seems a bit out of date. I think you need to mention how you feel about below replacement TFR in most of the world to make this position understandable.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#140

Post by Vecr » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 5:32 AM UTC

epivosism wrote: post #137

zwily wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s been talk of a Seveneves movie or mini series for years….

The final 1/3 of the book would be an amazing role-playing scenario. When you think about it, it's almost designed that way. The underground area, the floaters, the various "classes" of people we meet, their interesting combinations...

I think the final 1/3rd of that book is actually a horrible situation to actually be in. "Someone else's dream" for sure.