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Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

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Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#111

Post by myshpa »

goatlover wrote: post #66
jackmott42 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You remember that time "The media" tried to communicate nuance, and it worked? The reason you don't is because you can't. People are not equipped to receive that. The real issue here is industry is destroying our planet, and you nitpick the media because you can't handle the real problem. Bike shedding.

That's an extremely reductive take. Industry provides the economic activity for billions of people and our modern lifestyle. Clean energy will still be provided by industry, as will carbon capture and other mitigating solutions. What do you propose, going back to a preindustrial lifestyle? Do you have something better than we do that or we all die message that I'm criticizing? Bike shedding my ass.

> Industry provides the economic activity for billions of people

Bullshit jobs 40-75%, transport & cars to those bullshit jobs, too much stuff produced we don't need, ...

> as will carbon capture

Not soon, no. Lookup how much is already in the air and how much is the technology able to capture. We'd need tens of thousands of such factories. We have the technology - we have trees.

> going back to a preindustrial lifestyle

Living sustainably != preindustrial lifestyle.

> something better than we do that or we all die

Doing what we've done before (= more of the bad stuff that got us where we are) will get us to the "we all die" part.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#112

Post by FuckButtons »

marstall wrote: post #76
retrac wrote: post #2

The current sea temperature anomaly is extreme. You can see it plotted since 1980 here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ The dark black line that diverges in March is this year to date.

it may indeed be unprecedented - but this type of chart could do a better job of showing that. here's what I mean: we know that temperature has been increasing steadily for 140 years. So we expect each year can be higher than the previous one. And in an El Niño year, higher even. This chart shows that happening. What it doesn't show (clearly) is how high this year is vs. the previous year - and, importantly, whether…

You’re assuming that the ocean temperature relative to the previous year is meaningful. I don’t think that’s true, absolute difference from normal is what matters for ocean ecology.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#113

Post by GeoAtreides »

marstall wrote: post #76
retrac wrote: post #2

The current sea temperature anomaly is extreme. You can see it plotted since 1980 here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ The dark black line that diverges in March is this year to date.

it may indeed be unprecedented - but this type of chart could do a better job of showing that. here's what I mean: we know that temperature has been increasing steadily for 140 years. So we expect each year can be higher than the previous one. And in an El Niño year, higher even. This chart shows that happening. What it doesn't show (clearly) is how high this year is vs. the previous year - and, importantly, whether…

The black line is the current year, the orange line is the last year, in my opinion you can see very clearly the difference between the two. There are also three dotted lines: a mean (1982-2011) and a +-2sigma interval from the mean.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#114

Post by twojacobtwo »

FuckButtons wrote: post #112
marstall wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it may indeed be unprecedented - but this type of chart could do a better job of showing that. here's what I mean: we know that temperature has been increasing steadily for 140 years. So we expect each year can be higher than the previous one. And in an El Niño year, higher even. This chart shows that happening. What it doesn't show (clearly) is how high this year is vs. the previous year - and, importantly, whether…

You’re assuming that the ocean temperature relative to the previous year is meaningful. I don’t think that’s true, absolute difference from normal is what matters for ocean ecology.

I had the same thought as the parent poster. It may not be the most meaningful metric scientifically, but it would be great for showing average people that climate change won't necessarily be a smooth, linear, predictable climb.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#115

Post by ABCLAW »

magicalist wrote: post #73
IAmGraydon wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The worldwide anomaly in 2023 is about 0.9 degrees C from the mean since 1979, not 2.x. Furthermore, the 2023 anomaly from the last decade mean is about 0.3 degrees C. The 2023 anomaly from 2022 is 0.18 degrees, which is close to what they predicted the Tonga eruption would cause. One of the best ways to fight climate change is to not make up numbers out of thin air. There has to be trust for people to begin to chang…

> One of the best ways to fight climate change is to not make up numbers out of thin air I can tell you one of the best ways to fight climate change is not to spend 0 time reading someone's source to see what's going on with their numbers and accusing them of purposefully exaggerating instead. That's just using the guise of Wikipedia expertise to be lazy and stop a conversation before it starts From their article, th…

Not the poster you're replying to, but despite the fact that I think you're right, the mistake you've highlighted on is pretty reasonable given that there's people from many countries here and plenty of people default to C vs. F. No need to go on the attack to make a helpful correction. :)

I'll be over here cooking an egg on the sidewalk if you need me.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#116

Post by pvaldes »

goatlover wrote: post #60
pvaldes wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course that climate change will increase volcanism. Is the most logical outcome. Well, I'll self-correct myself: Replace "will increase" by "has been increasing".

Volcanism isn't caused by the climate, it's caused by magma seeping up from the Earth's core through cracks in the mantle.

> Volcanism isn't caused by the climate, it's caused by magma seeping up from the Earth's core through cracks in the mantle.

And this cracks (in the crust) are normally created by...

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#117

Post by pvaldes »

pvaldes wrote: post #116
goatlover wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volcanism isn't caused by the climate, it's caused by magma seeping up from the Earth's core through cracks in the mantle.

> Volcanism isn't caused by the climate, it's caused by magma seeping up from the Earth's core through cracks in the mantle. And this cracks (in the crust) are normally created by...

A redistribution in the equilibrium of the forces acting locally over crust and upper mantle called isostasy

And breaking the isostasy is directly related with...

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#118

Post by xyzelement »

WeylandYutani wrote: post #101
pier25 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These anomalies will become more common and more extreme over the coming decades.

It will happen just slow enough for people to get used to it and not panic. And then it will be the new normal. Humans can adapt to terrible situations. Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids.

// Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids.

When I came to the US in the 90s, one of my teachers was freaking out about peak oil and about how people shouldn't have kids because that would exacerbate the problem and those kids would have a bad life.

Joke's on him I guess. I suspect that at every single point of human history, someone was dismal about something and using it as a reason to not have kids.

If I had to bet, people having kids now are not going to regret it ever.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#119

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

xyzelement wrote: post #118
WeylandYutani wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will happen just slow enough for people to get used to it and not panic. And then it will be the new normal. Humans can adapt to terrible situations. Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids.

// Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids. When I came to the US in the 90s, one of my teachers was freaking out about peak oil and about how people shouldn't have kids because that would exacerbate the problem and those kids would have a bad life. Joke's on him I guess. I suspect that at every single point of human history, someone was dismal about something and using it as a reason to not…

Of course, it is obviously inevitable that at some point the doomsayers will be correct (and, to note, there are also many times they've been right in the past - I wouldn't have wanted to be born in Europe just before the Black Death, or in Rome just before it fell, or in 510 or so just to be in prime age during what is often called "the worst year in history" in 536, ...)

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#120

Post by pier25 »

WeylandYutani wrote: post #101
pier25 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These anomalies will become more common and more extreme over the coming decades.

It will happen just slow enough for people to get used to it and not panic. And then it will be the new normal. Humans can adapt to terrible situations. Honestly I'll ride it out but I do feel bad for people with kids.

That's what I used to think 10 years ago. Now I'm not so sure. Everything is happening way sooner and more dramatically than expected.
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