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LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

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Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#631

Post by seppel »

tinco wrote: post #198
seppel wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's been shown that teams of such researchers consistently beat prediction markets on these sorts of topics. This sounds like free money.

Running prediction markets is probably more free money than that. Building and maintaining research teams like that is not easy or cheap, if it would be then Good Judgment Inc. would be rolling in cash. Edit for context: Good Judgement Inc. is a sort of consultancy firm formed based on the results of an experiment called "The good judgment project" where psychologists challenged a community to predict (geopolitical)…

> Running prediction markets is probably more free money than that. Building and maintaining research teams like that is not easy or cheap, if it would be then Good Judgment Inc. would be rolling in cash.

You get your money from the prediction market if you are better at predicting.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#632

Post by andrepd »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #162
cmilton wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At what cost though? Surely the wealthy will continue on like nothing ever happened while the rest of us are here holding the bag. Markets seem to benefit some much more than others. Not everyone wants to play this game.

I was there and know all the details what happened and you nailed the key point, they used fear to have you believe what you wrote. I remember Paulson talking about how ATMs would fail. AIG won’t pay it’s policies. The US equities would crash even further. I hate to tell you but ALL lies, blatant “misinformation” as the new term is. They needed you to be terrified to save their own skins. Blackrock became the largest…

It's really funny that you're essentially saying "true capitalism has never been tried, we need to give it another shot, it will work this time I promise" without even realising the irony.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#633

Post by andrepd »

bitshiftfaced wrote: post #232
tomjen3 wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prediction markets got Donald Trump wrong on the election night and Brexit too[0]. Given such a huge failure why should we care what they say? [0]: https://archive.li/7m8s6

Weren't they still much better than what many media experts were forecasting? Iirc, CNN put Clinton at 97%.

Serious analysis, like 538 (not just poll aggregators like CNN), put Clinton at ~65%.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#634

Post by andrepd »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #103
mellosouls wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is always a subtle anti-markets theme on many HN debates, likely from highly educated ans literate posters. I believe we still in this age simply don’t provide proper education on the massive benefits that markets bring to so mang problems I think we are all too aware of markets and their benefits and disbenefits. It's not clear why you think the "education" is missing only in one direction.

You don’t observe a frequent knee jerk like anti-markets reaction from comments across HN? What are good examples of their “disbenefits”?

>What are good examples of their “disbenefits”?

The fact that you are asking this with a straight face tells me everything I need to know. Even the most rabidly capitalist person recognises that there are many severe problems with capitalism (they usually argue that it's simply better than the alternatives).

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#635

Post by andrepd »

jjoonathan wrote: post #314
alchemist1e9 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For what it’s worth, not much, but me personal believe that you believe that without evidence and primary due to the propaganda governments have fed you to scapegoat the evil “capitalists” and markets as a way to deflect blame for serious problems away from themselves. Governments need to regulate to prevent harm, we all agree. Yet they claim it’s the markets doing it! No, markets do what is most efficient and optima…

Funny, I think that you believe what you do without evidence primarily due to the propaganda spread by the wealthy elite that own and control the system and want to deflect blame for serious problems away from themselves by blaming the government. The private sector is bigger than the public sector, both in terms of dollar expenditure and in terms of political power. Politicians have to be vetted by rich people (the…

That's the most thorough smack-down I've ever seen on this forum. Great read.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#636

Post by andrepd »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #254
RedCondor wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All so-called "capital returns" are in reality produced by working people, and therefore people get to democratically decide what they do with them, through whatever decision-making forms they politically choose and consent to organize themselves under. Insofar as there are disagreements, because capitalist "geniuses" don't think their riches should be subject to democracy, we have a struggle between socialism and ca…

Except history shows us that in 100% of the cases that working people seize the production and allocate the gains they do a unbelievable bad job. Socialism is the single most failed idea in human history, yet we refuse to properly teach that in our education system. I suspect in the future it will be view a bit like refusing to teach other scientific subjects, like evolution. In reality a mob of people end up produci…

>There is a joke that the IQ of a mob is roughly the highest IQ in the mob divided by the size of the mob.

How can you possibly be saying this and "the wisdom of the crowd in markets is all-knowing" in the same thread?? Did you forget to say "and multiplied by the wealth of the mob"? :)

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#637

Post by MayeulC »

oneshtein wrote: post #630
jacquesm wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why you think that they cannot boost it further? That's not how this works. Why do you think it can ?

I have not tried, but my idea (more than 10 years ago, before the war) was to cover the lattice with atom-thin blanket of depleted Uranium, then to shine at it with radiation from hot mix of radioactive isotopes, with hope that lattice will boost performance of Uranium by 1k-10k. The obvious problem for practical use of this idea is small cross-section of the Uranium blanket, so maybe thousands of thin layers of Nick…

Your comment makes it sound like you don't understand the physics of it at all.

What does Uranium have to do with this? What does "performance of uranium" means? What do you think will happen when you bombard it with "radiation"? What kind of "radiation"?

Uranium is most commonly used in fission devices, not fusion ones. Fusing Uranium would absorb energy, not liberate energy, this is why we split it. https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/170716/is-there-...

For heating, you'd be better off using a heat pump. Or I guess you could take some radioactive material and shield it. Or even a breeder reactor, but that's fission.

I do not want to come across as disrespectful, but what you're saying sounds like alchemy, or the kind of "science" they show in superhero movies.

I could understand using a layer of metal to produce x-rays, and concentrate these to heat a sample (a bit similar to H-bombs, BTW), but I am not a nuclear physicist either. Real physicists have thought about this much more than we did, and if there was a simple pathway to practical fusion, we'd know about it by now. I think you underestimate the complexity of all this (kind of a "Dunning-Kruger" effect), go watch the "MIT's pathway to fusion[1]" videos for an introduction to the problem and modern approaches :)

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0KuAx1COEk

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#638

Post by junon »

ssijak wrote: post #140
junon wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where? I just see bandwagoning from a shitpost account.

start here then go to comments for branching out https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1685960703658860544

This is silly and reads like a thriller rather than a recounting of real events.

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#639

Post by oneshtein »

MayeulC wrote: post #637
oneshtein wrote: post #630

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have not tried, but my idea (more than 10 years ago, before the war) was to cover the lattice with atom-thin blanket of depleted Uranium, then to shine at it with radiation from hot mix of radioactive isotopes, with hope that lattice will boost performance of Uranium by 1k-10k. The obvious problem for practical use of this idea is small cross-section of the Uranium blanket, so maybe thousands of thin layers of Nick…

Your comment makes it sound like you don't understand the physics of it at all. What does Uranium have to do with this? What does "performance of uranium" means? What do you think will happen when you bombard it with "radiation"? What kind of "radiation"? Uranium is most commonly used in fission devices, not fusion ones. Fusing Uranium would absorb energy, not liberate energy, this is why we split it. https://physics…

Do you know how LENR works? Basically, deuterium is dissolved in palladium or nickel (the lattice), until metal starts to crack, to create high concentration of deuterium. Then muons are used[0] to start some fusion. Higher concentration of deuterium means that single muon can accelerate more nuclear fusions, so yield is better. However, artificial muons are expensive to produce, while cosmic muons are rare, so reactor may run fine on one day and fail on other just because of bad or good cosmic weather. If we will have cheap source of muons, then LENR will be practical.

My idea is to try to accelerate fusion by banging Uranium in the lattice, instead of bombarding it with muons. It's just an idea with little chance that it will actually work as-is. Many iterations of research and fine tuning are required to make it work.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon-catalyzed_fusion

Re: LK-99: The live online race for a room-temperature superconductor

#640

Post by jjk166 »

postalrat wrote: post #541
jjk166 wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Researchers were already working under the assumption such a thing can actually exist.

What if I told you stimulating a universe like ours is also possible.

I would ask what that means.
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