161–170 of 659 posts
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You don’t observe a frequent knee jerk like anti-markets reaction from comments across HN? I find HN one of the most balanced online forums on most subjects. What are good examples of their “disbenefits”? The race to the bottom is all around us.
> The race to the bottom is all around us. Isn't this more a side effect of corporations, advertising and corruption rather than markets themselves?
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More like governments aren’t as clever as claimed. The markets would have put all the bad actors out of business permanently and redistributed the resources (like shinny new buildings and engineers) to areas where they would better be utilized. Instead it was turned into an opportunity to launder money at planetary scale. This likely hints to why the truth about the benefits of brutally efficient free markets is dist…
At what cost though? Surely the wealthy will continue on like nothing ever happened while the rest of us are here holding the bag. Markets seem to benefit some much more than others. Not everyone wants to play this game.
I remember Paulson talking about how ATMs would fail. AIG won’t pay it’s policies. The US equities would crash even further. I hate to tell you but ALL lies, blatant “misinformation” as the new term is.
They needed you to be terrified to save their own skins. Blackrock became the largest landlord in the country afterwards. The very companies that facilitated and promoted and literally caused the bubble and crash were rewarded.
The waitress and mechanic couple with a baby who had carefully saved up $30K never got the opportunity to buy that house down the street from their parents for $90K at foreclosure from the bankrupt banks. Nope, Blackrock exchanged their bad paper, worth, 20c for $1 to your very government for new fresh cash, bought it instead at $120K, down from $150K.
Go crony capitalism! Which isn’t what markets are about.
I've been live following this thread: https://twitter.com/iris_igb/status/1685731177523449856
I want this material to be real so badly.
Saw some people hyping up markets where people are betting on prediction markets whether or not LK-99 will replicate. Can't help but feel like that money would be better spent just paying off some labs to actually try to replicate the process. The response I got from a predictions market enthusiast was that having a sufficiently large market would motivate people to attempt to have the process replicated and buy opti…
This type of instictive negative reaction to prediction markets is, unfortunately, common, but, I think, misguided. Prediction markets are one of the (or just, the?) best ways of aggregating knowledge from multiple sources and producing the best predictions. Having good legible predictions of impactful events such as LK-99 replication is extremely useful for society - it would be an invaluable input for a savvy polic…
E.g. if you invest in technology around LK-99, and then use prediction market to prevent going bankrupt in case you were wrong.
THUS: it doesn't mean that prediction markets give good predictions.
By the way. Do you have some data on that? I.e., statistics of prediction markets being right vs wrong?
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The base prior (the market price) is that this will not replicate. This scenario is a way to make a quick buck claiming the opposite without doing any actual hard work. In regular markets you can't just say "we increased our sales 1000%" and a week later "oops, sorry, misplaced decimal dot". You can do that in prediction markets.
If you are participating in a prediction market and blindly believe random claims, yes, you will lose your money. As you should. I don’t understand what you think is different with other markets. Information must be assessed for it’s accuracy and acted on by participants. In this case I’d even argue the prediction market helped focus attention and resulted in rapid counter analysis that questioned the claims. Perhaps…
The history of financial markets is rich in examples.
Or more recently, the endless supply of scamming in sports betting where athletes collude to fix games.
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> The race to the bottom is all around us. You live in SF by chance? Because globally and historically that’s absolutely not what the data says about markets.
Marketers take a lot of credit for achievements that don't belong to them. Take, for example, Hayek's rather more honest commentary on vacations and human rights generally: > [The 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights] is admittedly an attempt to fuse the rights of the Western liberal tradition with the altogether different concept deriving from the Marxist Russian Revolution. It adds to the list of the classica…
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LK-99 is a brand new material that almost nobody knows anything about. The market is not a knowledge aggregate, it is vibes based.
You are severely underestimating how good vibes from a lot of people are at giving good estimates.
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LK-99 is a brand new material that almost nobody knows anything about. The market is not a knowledge aggregate, it is vibes based.
You are severely underestimating how good vibes from a lot of people are at giving good estimates.
Anyone else remembers how people were selling and buying doge coin at 70 cents based on good vibes? No? Ok.
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Basically theft. > This is (initially) a copy of Guderian2nd’s table on the discussion thread on Spacebattles with a bit of cleanup. I’ve rewritten most of the notes to be more concise as I track the updates myself, where I can.
How is it theft? The original source is prominently cited, the author of the blog post is an active participant to the original discussion, the whole point of the post is to collect and summarize various sources in one place.
Also, this person just copied the initial work but isn’t as committed to keeping things up to date. Much better to use the original source.
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You don’t observe a frequent knee jerk like anti-markets reaction from comments across HN? I find HN one of the most balanced online forums on most subjects. What are good examples of their “disbenefits”? The race to the bottom is all around us.
> The race to the bottom is all around us. You live in SF by chance? Because globally and historically that’s absolutely not what the data says about markets.