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Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

arstechnica.com

131–140 of 228 posts

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#131

While there are concerns with the bidding process, I think this is a pretty big "nothing", in the grand scheme. There is some pretty horrific anti-Boeing spin. > Throughout this spring, NASA and Boeing had been working toward a July launch date of the spacecraft, which will carry two astronauts for the first time. > Asked whether Starliner might be able to launch this year, Stich did not offer a concrete timetable. "…

Boeing was awarded the crew contract at the same time as SpaceX in 2014. The first crew mission was Dragon in May 2020. Fast forward 4 years, seven NASA and three private crews have flown on Dragon. None on Starliner. Can you say with a straight face that it isn't a serious delay? A few months, really?

Keep in mind that Boeing was awarded $4.2B, compared to $2.9B for SpaceX, for the same number of flights. Not to mention that NASA was accused of favor treatment for Boeing during the development phase - See What we found section of [0]

> Which is hilarious (ambiguity about launches) as NASA doesn't even know when in 2024 (except that it will be at least Spring) Crew-EIGHT will launch... (and neither NASA nor SpaceX itself has made any communication on Crew-9 launch timeframes.)

Such is an ignorant take. The rotation of ISS mission is currently 6 months, so there are always two missions a year, in the Spring and the Fall, barring extraordinary circumstance such as with Soyuz MS-10. Crew-8 will fly in the Spring, to be followed by the first Starliner operational flight. However if Starliner upcoming test flight continue to be delayed it's entirely possible that Crew 9 will fly instead.

> I also question Ars' framing of this as "losing money"... it's R&D expenditures.

It's not Ars' framing. It's common knowledge - [1], and reported by Boeing itself - [2]

Boeing on Wednesday reported a $257 million charge in the second quarter for its Starliner astronaut spacecraft program, bringing the program’s to-date overrun costs to $1.5 billion as delays continue.

The aerospace giant blamed the charge on its decision last month to indefinitely delay the first crewed Starliner launch.

> and this article just reeks of subjective opinion, more so than objective neutrality.

The article is very short. Everyone should read and judge for themselves. I think it's mostly matter of fact without sensational takes. Can't say the same about your post (horrific anti-Boeing/reeks/hilarious).

[0] - https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-20-005.pdf [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/boeing-has-lost-1point5-bill... [2] - https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2023-07-26-Boeing-Reports-Secon...

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#132
post #8

This comment is your regularly scheduled reminder that they were supposed to be the safe option. The people who'd come in clutch when SpaceX failed (and it was assumed in certain quarters that SpaceX would fail to deliver on time). They were paid 2x more than what NASA paid SpaceX. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/nasa-will-pay-boeing... RIP Boeing.

> They were paid 2x more than what NASA paid SpaceX.

It's worth a case study - why didn't they try to pay Gwynne Shotwell 10x more + CEO role + (M\B)illions worth of stocks? Even if they did, why didn't she accept? She would certainly have turned their fortunes around.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So money claw back and hand it to SpaceX?

Probably blue origin. NASA wants more than one supplier, for as much as possible.

Blue Origin is another company that talks a good game, but they've yet to put anything in orbit. If NASA is casting about for a second supplier, there were other rejected bidders on the current human space transport contracts (e.g., Sierra Space's Dream Chaser, still under development in a cargo variant) which seem less risky.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So many people want to erroneously believe Elon is some child with the mental capacity of a 3 year old with access to billions of dollars because they don't want to like him or give him credit for anything. I think the contrast between Musk's SpaceX and Twitter experiences is largely down to whether the organization grew up around Musk. SpaceX has an immune system built up for the nutty stuff, from Gwynne Shotwell…

I think saying that SpaceX is somehow "containing" the nutty stuff in a way that Twitter is not isn't all that accurate. SpaceX does tons of nutty stuff, some of it turns out to be good, and that's how they have their 10+ year technology lead on most of the world. In the early days this was stuff like using shears to roughly trim an engine bell in the field. Nowadays it's stuff like attempting to catch rockets with g…

There's a vast spectrum of nuttiness available. I don't think you see SpaceX successful without the Gwynne Shotwell sort of characters involved; I think Twitter lacks such a role.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#136
post #127

[flagged]

Elon also said the Falcon 9 would work, said it would be re-usable, said the Falcon 9 heavy would work, said the Model S would be good, said the Model 3 would be great, said the Model Y would be the most popular car in the world, etc. etc. Obviously he's not hitting 100%, but you can't deny his companies are achieving immensely more than anyone ever thought possible. If I could take Elon's ratio of "I said it would w…

sane person here, I would only take Elon's claim that something would work seriously if it relied mostly on newtonian mechanics to verify.

which model S being good, falcon 9 working etc, that is all it takes. basic physics napkin math.

anything with nuance (self driving) or human emotions in play (twitter), and he is the same as any boomer uncle complaining about kids these days

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#137
post #49

Lost, or invested? One imagines if they outright lost it and saw no opportunity to recoup (i.e. no longer an investment) they'd just end the program.

For that investment to work, they need to bring in some revenue as well. The ISS is scheduled to retire by 2030. Let's assume this capsule goes operational in 2025 and flies twice a year, that's 10 flights to recoup well, well over a billion by then. Let's say a 100 million per flight. Not sure what the contract is exactly, but it's not looking great. Pretty sure SpaceX is cheaper, so NASA will be the only customer.

NASA plans to have other places to send astronauts by then. The ISS will almost certainly have its life extended again before that though.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#138
post #8

This comment is your regularly scheduled reminder that they were supposed to be the safe option. The people who'd come in clutch when SpaceX failed (and it was assumed in certain quarters that SpaceX would fail to deliver on time). They were paid 2x more than what NASA paid SpaceX. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/nasa-will-pay-boeing... RIP Boeing.

> They were paid 2x more than what NASA paid SpaceX. It's worth a case study - why didn't they try to pay Gwynne Shotwell 10x more + CEO role + (M\B)illions worth of stocks? Even if they did, why didn't she accept? She would certainly have turned their fortunes around.

Hasn't Gwen's main role at SpaceX been sales? Is she also the main force behind spaceX executing at engineering?

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#139
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon also said the Falcon 9 would work, said it would be re-usable, said the Falcon 9 heavy would work, said the Model S would be good, said the Model 3 would be great, said the Model Y would be the most popular car in the world, etc. etc. Obviously he's not hitting 100%, but you can't deny his companies are achieving immensely more than anyone ever thought possible. If I could take Elon's ratio of "I said it would w…

sane person here, I would only take Elon's claim that something would work seriously if it relied mostly on newtonian mechanics to verify. which model S being good, falcon 9 working etc, that is all it takes. basic physics napkin math. anything with nuance (self driving) or human emotions in play (twitter), and he is the same as any boomer uncle complaining about kids these days

Right, and he ballparks 250-300T in expendable mode here:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1661441658473570304?s=46...

Raptor improved thrust:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1678276840740343808?s=46...

Raptor 2 improved thrust:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1657249739925258240?s=46...

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1661441658473570304?s=46...

Love the guy or hate the guy, but on SpaceX numbers (other than timelines), he’s been spot on.

Re: Boeing has now lost $1.1B on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight

#140
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the regulators have certified SpaceX's Crew Dragon.

Sure. But they are waiting on contracts to do anything.

Yes, that is how Commercial Crew works. They get paid to send people to the ISS
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