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A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

nature.com

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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#271

Post by pphysch »

Tiktaalik wrote: post #191
pphysch wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biosphere is composed of countless suborganisms that have become highly stable over eons of evolutionary pressure.

they are evolved to the current climate. Climate change is the sort of disruptive pressure that will wipe the slate clean and enable new creatures to evolve in the aftermath new normal (see: dinosaurs being replaced by mammals). That the earth "will survive" is not in question. What is relevant is ensuring the survival of all the creatures that are evolved to the current status quo, which includes us and our current…

Dinosaurs were replaced by a meteor (external event), not by climate mismanagement.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#272

Post by pphysch »

xg15 wrote: post #71
pphysch wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> compound and significantly accelerate the timeline There's a misconception that the biosphere is a delicate machine that will have a catastrophic internal failure if we don't follow the maintenance bibl^H^H^H^Hmanual, which apparently some experts have access to. In reality, it is a highly dynamic, self-repairing living organism, which we are a part of. There are at least as many negative feedback loops as positive…

What would be examples of negative feedback loops of comparable size?

Photosynthesis (carbon) cycle

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151188/a-massive-se...

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#273

Post by pvaldes »

thumbuddy wrote: post #169
oceanthrowaway wrote: post #32

I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…

So say it does collapse, in layman's terms what does that mean?

Hurricane season on steroids for example if all this warm water accumulate in Florida instead to move to France.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#274

Post by rekabis »

braaannigan wrote: post #50

I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…

A lot of publicly-published forecasts of climate change have been ridiculously - and I would emphasize hilariously so - conservative on their numbers and predictions. Pretty much every “worst case scenario” morphs into a “best case scenario” over a year or three, before being dropped wholesale for being unrealistically optimistic due to how fast climate change is accelerating.

So can this happen “sooner than expected”, along with the massive raft of climate change outcomes that are cropping up 20, 50, and even 100 years “earlier than expected”?

Let’s just say that if climate change was on the stock exchange, I’d be dumping serious money into its futures. Nothing seems to be truly “off the table” anymore, even the truly outlandish outcomes are becoming terrifyingly prescient.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#275

Post by boondoggle16 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #149
boondoggle16 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What specific problems have historically been made better by "hanging all the journalists"?

I'll leave that as an exercise to the reader. Imagine how our society would change if these liars and grifters were not constantly brainwashing our friends and family on the topics of:

- Economics - Climate - Health - Social wellbeing

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#276

Post by boondoggle16 »

californical wrote: post #192
boondoggle16 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, the earth is subject to evolutionary pressure in a sense. This is the only planet that supports life (that we know of). That's because it's natural properties endured through billions of years to support life. It's not exactly an arms race. And it's a different, but similar mechanism. But I think the underlying principles are the same. In this case, evolution won't look like the earth changing over time. It…

It’s definitely not subject to evolutionary pressure of any sort, because the earth is completely indifferent to life.

I'm not understanding, your statement reads like a non-sequitur to me. Evolution has nothing to do with life.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#277

Post by hackzzz »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #84
braaannigan wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for pointing this out, I missed that

This is becoming a perennial refrain in HN stories based on scientific papers. ("Oh, wait, this dubious study or lazy meta-analysis isn't really appearing in Nature , it's some other publication to which Nature has whored out their name and credibility.") It sounds like the 150-year-old scientific journal of record has been taken over by private equity, or by MBAs with KPIs to optimize.

[flagged]

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#278

Post by hackerzzzz »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #84
braaannigan wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for pointing this out, I missed that

This is becoming a perennial refrain in HN stories based on scientific papers. ("Oh, wait, this dubious study or lazy meta-analysis isn't really appearing in Nature , it's some other publication to which Nature has whored out their name and credibility.") It sounds like the 150-year-old scientific journal of record has been taken over by private equity, or by MBAs with KPIs to optimize.

Hackers news literally exists to perform lazy meta analysis

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#279

Post by mistermann »

marketerinland wrote: post #188
DanHulton wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If appeal to authority is a valid argument Well, thankfully it is not. There's no need for one side or the other to "win," especially at this point. Instead, likely, debate will continue until a more-nuanced view is better understood and accurately disseminated. (Not necessarily a view "in the middle." Sometimes one side is just Right, Full Stop. But a more-nuanced view when there's strong disagreement on both side…

Appeal to authority is only a fallacy where the authority is not actually an authority.

Mother nature decides such things ultimately, including whether the actions your and your Experts take are enough to carry the day.

Maybe best not to put all your eggs in one basket, or bet your future on one strategy!

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#280

Post by xg15 »

pphysch wrote: post #272
xg15 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would be examples of negative feedback loops of comparable size?

Photosynthesis (carbon) cycle https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151188/a-massive-se...

From what I get, yeah, there are several projects that try to use use seaweed on the open ocean to sequester CO2. [1] The yield seems to be mediocre though [2, 3].

For all seaweed that washes up on the shore, the effect reverses: It rots and releases CO2 and methane into the atmosphere. [4]

So if it's a negative feedback loop, then a very weak one, if at all: CO2 emissions cause increased seaweed growth, but increased seaweed coverage doesn't meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas concentrations and in fact can even increase them.

[1] https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/06/09/245935...

[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00489...

[3] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22837-2

[4] https://nsuworks.nova.edu/hcas_etd_all/113/

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