A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Post by xg15 » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:23 PM UTC

pphysch wrote: post #38

rcarr wrote: post #11

Anyone else think that all these predictions are going to happen sooner rather than later in terms of the given prediction range? I can't help but think that a study focussing on a specific area like this one, antarctic sea ice, wildfire predictions etc must only be able to take so many variables into account and that second order effects, third order, fourth order and beyond from other climate subsystems are going t…

> compound and significantly accelerate the timeline There's a misconception that the biosphere is a delicate machine that will have a catastrophic internal failure if we don't follow the maintenance bibl^H^H^H^Hmanual, which apparently some experts have access to. In reality, it is a highly dynamic, self-repairing living organism, which we are a part of. There are at least as many negative feedback loops as positive…

Post by stoneman24 » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:24 PM UTC

aport wrote: post #5

ridgeguy wrote: post #4

Last sentence in the Abstract: "We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions."

Further in the paper "The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time is 〈tc〉 = 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095."

Post by whinenot » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:26 PM UTC

rcarr wrote: post #11

Anyone else think that all these predictions are going to happen sooner rather than later in terms of the given prediction range? I can't help but think that a study focussing on a specific area like this one, antarctic sea ice, wildfire predictions etc must only be able to take so many variables into account and that second order effects, third order, fourth order and beyond from other climate subsystems are going t…

Post by rolph » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:27 PM UTC

Daishiman wrote: post #27

malermeister wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does that 5C drop interact with the rise that we're currently concerned about? (Heatwave, wildfires in the med etc). I'm guessing it's hopelessly naive to assume it'll just... kinda cancel each other out?

The net energy of the system will remain the same, just distributed somewhere else.

Post by dkarl » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:27 PM UTC

PeterStuer wrote: post #59

braaannigan wrote: post #50

I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…

We've been very surprised as to which studies made it to nature over the past decade. I can't help but conclude that the influence of (politial) bias has been steadily growing over the years. (Fwiw, i'm personally taking the climate change subject extremely serious).