This article makes no mention of and has me wondering if this model contemplates undersea hydrate and permafrost methane release and its effects on the climate slope? Or is it limited to what's already taken place and excluding potential accellerant events?
A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
111–120 of 324 posts
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…
To me this is the great utility of the IPCC reports. If you look at the full report you can find subsections on many aspects of climate change and a discussion of the state of the field complete with citations compiled by an expert.
How would a layperson like myself judge what's in the IPCC report? The predictions are so dramatic that we have to act now and can't wait and see how it turns out. How is it different from this submission here?
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes. We're not sleepwalking to an uninhabitable dystopia, we're sprinting towards it. We may all be in for some serious problems in 5 to 10 years. I'm not a climate scientist, this is just an uninformed opinion, but everything I'm reading has me very worried.
There are challenges to overcome but thinking of the future as dystopia can be counterproductive.
Only if it crushes our spirit. A hopeful counterpoint would be it incentives us to push back (of course easier said than done).
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
Oh absolutely. Environmental scientists are very conservative and anti-alarmist with their predictions, and every successive generation of derived data skews towards the more conservative end.
You are saying there are no scientists that predicted we would have more sea level rise than we actually do by now?
If you're asking if you can disprove the previous statement by finding a single example of a scientist who predicted wild rises in sea level that haven't happened, the answer is 'no'.
Most scientists can still have historically been overly conservative even if you can find a few that made over the top predictions. It should be perfectly obvious that the presence of a few outliers doesn't invalidate the median of the sample.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#115So what would the consequences be? ~3-5 degree drop in temperature at the coasts?
youtube has some great visual references for understanding the size and significance of this circulation.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnV9oq_AewI
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2ETr6X1lOk
suffice to say the implications of this system changing will be felt globally.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#116I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…
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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#117I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…
As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…
Welcoming nuance, reading the whole thing, and not venturing conclusions as a laymen.
This thread is a good example: the person you're replying to isn't saying it's bad work, or that the work claims certitude. In fact, it disclaims it, it's a statistical model. It's just that pop "scientists" may overestimate it its in Nature and people don't read.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#118So, the current stops and things get colder in Europe, but they have been having serious heat wave issues each summer. Will things be worse in the winters, but better in the summers if the current did stop?
The climate is an extremely complicated system. The first order effect of AMOC collapse might be cooler European summers, but eventual build-up of ice could effect atmospheric systems leading to hotter summers.
Of course, more or less comfortable summers might not matter much with half of Europe starving to death from crop failure.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes. We're not sleepwalking to an uninhabitable dystopia, we're sprinting towards it. We may all be in for some serious problems in 5 to 10 years. I'm not a climate scientist, this is just an uninformed opinion, but everything I'm reading has me very worried.
What's happening right now could still be a very unlikely anomaly and everything may change back to "normal" soon. Or it isn't. Hard to judge for me, I'm not an expert.
Yeah, everything that's been predicted for decades is happening but it could just be a total coincidence.
And if it isn't I'm sure they'll just magically figure out economically viable fusion or spray some aerosols into the atmosphere or somehow just magically fix everything.
I'm sure everything will be fine. That's why I'm not having kids.
/s
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#120I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…
The publication is in Nature Communications , which is a bit of a different (lesser) beast than Nature .
Like TedX diluted TED.