Anyone else think that all these predictions are going to happen sooner rather than later in terms of the given prediction range? I can't help but think that a study focussing on a specific area like this one, antarctic sea ice, wildfire predictions etc must only be able to take so many variables into account and that second order effects, third order, fourth order and beyond from other climate subsystems are going to compound and significantly accelerate the timeline.
A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#12> Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of…
If nothing else, the UK would more closely resemble central Europe, as I understand it - colder winters, hotter summers
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#13If the authors of the paper are reading this forum I bet them €10,000 (in 2023 money) that this event (collapse of the AMOC) will not occur this century.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#14An article from livescience.com that may be worth a read. TLDR: if slowdown occurs, temperatures could drop by 5C in Europe and North America. What a 5C drop actually looks like they don't say. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf...
So if this continues it will result in a 5C drop in temprature across North America and Europe? Am I understanding this correctly. Which for reference a 5C drop should mean that New York is covered in glacier according to this source https://xkcd.com/1732/
NYC was covered in a glacier the last time the global average temperature was 5C cooler.
That's not the same thing as Europe and NA cooling by 5C.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#15Anyone else think that all these predictions are going to happen sooner rather than later in terms of the given prediction range? I can't help but think that a study focussing on a specific area like this one, antarctic sea ice, wildfire predictions etc must only be able to take so many variables into account and that second order effects, third order, fourth order and beyond from other climate subsystems are going t…
There is some P that all those unknown variables act in opposite directions, rather than the same direction.
My guess is it's pretty close to 50% - otherwise they probably would've studied those variables.
But predicting the future is basically impossible. So who knows.
We're all basically guessing.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
So if this continues it will result in a 5C drop in temprature across North America and Europe? Am I understanding this correctly. Which for reference a 5C drop should mean that New York is covered in glacier according to this source https://xkcd.com/1732/
NYC was covered in a glacier the last time the global average temperature was 5C cooler. That's not the same thing as Europe and NA cooling by 5C.
While strictly true, that doesn't mean 5C cooling wouldn't eventually result in NYC under ice.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#17Anyone else think that all these predictions are going to happen sooner rather than later in terms of the given prediction range? I can't help but think that a study focussing on a specific area like this one, antarctic sea ice, wildfire predictions etc must only be able to take so many variables into account and that second order effects, third order, fourth order and beyond from other climate subsystems are going t…
Oh absolutely. Environmental scientists are very conservative and anti-alarmist with their predictions, and every successive generation of derived data skews towards the more conservative end.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#18An article from livescience.com that may be worth a read. TLDR: if slowdown occurs, temperatures could drop by 5C in Europe and North America. What a 5C drop actually looks like they don't say. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf...
How does that 5C drop interact with the rise that we're currently concerned about? (Heatwave, wildfires in the med etc).
I'm guessing it's hopelessly naive to assume it'll just... kinda cancel each other out?
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#19Anyone else think that all these predictions are going to happen sooner rather than later in terms of the given prediction range? I can't help but think that a study focussing on a specific area like this one, antarctic sea ice, wildfire predictions etc must only be able to take so many variables into account and that second order effects, third order, fourth order and beyond from other climate subsystems are going t…
Yes. We're not sleepwalking to an uninhabitable dystopia, we're sprinting towards it. We may all be in for some serious problems in 5 to 10 years. I'm not a climate scientist, this is just an uninformed opinion, but everything I'm reading has me very worried.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#20If the authors of the paper are reading this forum I bet them €10,000 (in 2023 money) that this event (collapse of the AMOC) will not occur this century.
https://xkcd.com/1132/
When the AMOC collapses, they may not have much use for your €10,000.