Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

duskos.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 152 posts

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#101

Post by mc32 »

jacquesm wrote: post #89
jdlshore wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DuskOS is specifically for the interregnum period before full collapse, when microchips are still readily accessible, but can no longer be produced. (I think the author’s predictions about the collapse of civilization are overblown, but still, if you’re going to engage in a middlebrow dismissal, at least do us the courtesy of reading and understanding what you’re dismissing.)

> (I think the author’s predictions about the collapse of civilization are overblown, but still, if you’re going to engage in a middlebrow dismissal, at least do us the courtesy of reading and understanding what you’re dismissing.) You should probably do me the courtesy to not make assumptions about what I've read and understood. This is such a common trope on HN that it made it into the guidelines. The whole idea th…

Economic war, if it were to become full-blown, could result in locally constrained availability of microchips while civilizations still go on, no? Pandemic x5 or so. What if India and China decide to trade some nukes? It's not likely, but it's a possible scenario.

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#102

Post by jacquesm »

Gordonjcp wrote: post #68
lsp_trw wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lithium batteries will be dead within a decade. Solar panels within 3. Think about that the next time you cheer on a huge solar installation as a win for the planet.

I'm currently using equipment that's working perfectly well running on NiCads and solar panels that are only a little younger than I am. I expect in another 50 years they'll be a bit on the tired side, but it won't be my problem.

It won't be your problem but I'd expect whoever inherits it from you to still be able to get between 20 and 30% or so of the original capacity out of it. Which is likely ample to run simple stuff, assuming the simple stuff itself survives that long.

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#103

Post by jacquesm »

mc32 wrote: post #101
jacquesm wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (I think the author’s predictions about the collapse of civilization are overblown, but still, if you’re going to engage in a middlebrow dismissal, at least do us the courtesy of reading and understanding what you’re dismissing.) You should probably do me the courtesy to not make assumptions about what I've read and understood. This is such a common trope on HN that it made it into the guidelines. The whole idea th…

Economic war, if it were to become full-blown, could result in locally constrained availability of microchips while civilizations still go on, no? Pandemic x5 or so. What if India and China decide to trade some nukes? It's not likely, but it's a possible scenario.

It's a possibility. But in that case an all out effort to recreate a competition free fab in the west would be able to put something usable together in a few years. I don't see that as a scenario where you'd need to go for scavenged hardware, any old cellphone has enough power to deal with factory automation at that level and well beyond it.

We know exactly what to build and how to tie it all together, the reason we currently do not is economics, not because we could not.

Personally I think the degree to which the Western world is making itself dependent on supply chains like that is irresponsible, but I also think that to some degree it is the same kind of thinking that went on in Germany to make itself dependent on Russian gas. It goes something like 'let's tie ourselves together at the hip in an economic way so that a shooting war is no longer an option'. This presumes rational actors on both sides. Which was a giant mistake in the case of Russia and which may well be a giant mistake in the case of China and Taiwan. But then there is still Korea and possibly Japan.

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#104

Post by KerrAvon »

uoaei wrote: post #76
jacquesm wrote: post #19

After civilizational collapse you won't need computers, you'll need bows, arrows and basic agricultural tools that don't require motors. Forget about electricity or anything requiring it, that will be the least of your problems. Assuming there is still sunlight enough to keep photosynthesis running. If not, you may want to find some place high. And if you are going to do something like this then you really should mak…

I'd bet the US national grid would be back up in some capacity within a year. People tend to assemble in times of crisis.

Have you been in a coma during the past decade? I can’t fathom how you could possibly come to this conclusion after COVID.

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#105

Post by overboard2 »

jacquesm wrote: post #19

After civilizational collapse you won't need computers, you'll need bows, arrows and basic agricultural tools that don't require motors. Forget about electricity or anything requiring it, that will be the least of your problems. Assuming there is still sunlight enough to keep photosynthesis running. If not, you may want to find some place high. And if you are going to do something like this then you really should mak…

You're assuming a sudden collapse, rather than a gradual deterioration of society

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#106

Post by jacquesm »

overboard2 wrote: post #105
jacquesm wrote: post #19

After civilizational collapse you won't need computers, you'll need bows, arrows and basic agricultural tools that don't require motors. Forget about electricity or anything requiring it, that will be the least of your problems. Assuming there is still sunlight enough to keep photosynthesis running. If not, you may want to find some place high. And if you are going to do something like this then you really should mak…

You're assuming a sudden collapse, rather than a gradual deterioration of society

Yes, because that is (1) more likely and (2) much harder to recover from. A slow and gradual collapse of society can be slowly and gradually reversed and is as long as you can't point at something catastrophic going to stretch the definition of collapse unless it is so slow that it is indistinguishable from change.

'slow collapse' is a bit of a contradiction in terms, all collapses that I'm aware of are sudden, they are events on the timescales that we normally care about, even though if you zoomed in on them enough they would show plenty of detail. Once started they will run their course. Gradual deterioration of society isn't something you need to make contingency plans for. It will happen, or it won't but your FORTH based OS isn't going to make a meaningful difference. For the aftermath of an EMP it will be useless and for a deterioration that takes a year, a decade, a century or even longer there will be other, far more effective mitigation strategies.

But fine, if that's the pretext the OP needed to build their thing I'm perfectly OK with it, I just don't think that's in any way a realistic premise. See also: preppers and shelter fanatics.

The people that are best positioned to deal with all of this are the Mennonites.

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#107

Post by nullc »

jacquesm wrote: post #19

After civilizational collapse you won't need computers, you'll need bows, arrows and basic agricultural tools that don't require motors. Forget about electricity or anything requiring it, that will be the least of your problems. Assuming there is still sunlight enough to keep photosynthesis running. If not, you may want to find some place high. And if you are going to do something like this then you really should mak…

My solar powered encrypted radios let me take your basic agricultural tools without worrying too much about your bows and arrows. :D

> hope your USB sticks will be EMP proof.

You don't keep your spare computers in a steel and copper clad safe?

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#108

Post by actionfromafar »

jacquesm wrote: post #89
jdlshore wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DuskOS is specifically for the interregnum period before full collapse, when microchips are still readily accessible, but can no longer be produced. (I think the author’s predictions about the collapse of civilization are overblown, but still, if you’re going to engage in a middlebrow dismissal, at least do us the courtesy of reading and understanding what you’re dismissing.)

> (I think the author’s predictions about the collapse of civilization are overblown, but still, if you’re going to engage in a middlebrow dismissal, at least do us the courtesy of reading and understanding what you’re dismissing.) You should probably do me the courtesy to not make assumptions about what I've read and understood. This is such a common trope on HN that it made it into the guidelines. The whole idea th…

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35046551

"easy to imagine - a large enough collapse that making new ones is very very hard, especially compared to scrounging and repurposing the huge amount of existing ones. Imagine a huge population decline, and search parties looking through the ruins for useful tech, like computers, decades later.

Such a society could probably make new computers, but the cost of making new, much worse specced computers, may not be cost effective for a long time as long as old computers can be found and repaired.

Edit: such a movie or novel would make for great Fallout-ish world-building. Imagine for instance a large hotel in a big city running the booking system on an old laptop in a central secure location, and new 8-bit computers used as terminals at the front desk. Public access 8-bit computer terminals at public libraries connected to copies of WikiPedia running on some old gaming rig and such things. :-) "

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#109

Post by actionfromafar »

jacquesm wrote: post #37
anon7725 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Light at night to work was a major achievement for humanity and there are still many lacking it reliably today. It would continue to be useful post collapse. Portable solar panels + lithium battery banks would be quite useful indeed.

They will last a few hundred cycles and then you're done. Anything that you rely on in a situation like that should be 100% maintenance free and should not rely on technology more complex than what you can make today in your garage with hand tools. Go over that level and it will just buy you a little bit of comfort but it won't last. Candles: yes. Solar panels+batteries+inverters: forget it. Even a basic charge contr…

Windmills with simple generators and no (or very simple) batteries could work.

Some electricity some of the time is very useful compared to no electricity, ever.

Re: Dusk OS: 32-bit Forth OS. Useful during first stage of civilizational collapse

#110

Post by nullc »

MagicMoonlight wrote: post #15
I_am_uncreative wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is an interesting project, but the author's belief that society is going to completely collapse by 2030 is... odd.

And he's removed all the updates where he said the collapse was happening and then turned out to be wrong. He's basically just another doomsday cultist.

"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man."

Pretty much by definition the first people to prepare for any disaster will be people who are or at least appear to be unreasonable.

We benefit from a diversity of opinions, even when some of the opinions are wrong.

Post reply on HN