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S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

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Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#471

Post by mparnisari »

dekhn wrote: post #177
Zetice wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exponential growth, several orders of magnitude... these are not what "skyrocketing" means, in actuality. So you are correct, none of those phrases describe the graph here, but none of those phrases matter. It's a sudden, alarming, and seemingly sustained trend, and it's worth writing an article over.

Have you ever looked at the chart of the velocity of a rocket? Rockets accelerate from 0 to 17,000 mph in ~5-6 minutes. the initial phase is exponential. (it's not useful being pedantic here, I think I've captured what people think when they hear the word "skyrocket"; it's intentionally used to frame the discussion)

HN comments have always been weird. This is a peak example. An article says "skyrocket" and you have to look up the acceleration of a rocket. LMFAO.

Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#472

Post by Zanni »

aluminum96 wrote: post #433
dekhn wrote: post #115

"Skyrocket" is a word people use when they don't have the data to support their claim, but want to make it sound as extreme as possible. When I hear "skyrocket" I think "several orders of magnitude in a very short time". But the source of the quote with skyrocket, basically admits that they didn't have any quantitative evidence to support a massive change in incidents. Remember: reality is banal. Things are far bette…

Waymo and Cruise won't actually release comprehensive data. So anecdotes are all we have to go by... and they don't look particularly good. These are egregious driving mistakes that a human driver would almost never make. - https://twitter.com/desertflyer/status/1677464706251128832 - https://twitter.com/flrent/status/1677483882109882368 Everyone needs to experience these things for themselves before unleashing them o…

As a sometime pedestrian, I can tell you that those are the sorts of mistakes human drivers make all the time.

Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#473

Post by hedora »

minwcnt5 wrote: post #349
__loam wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average SF resident probably works for a tech company considering how many natives have been driven out by high housing costs. Tech companies are an enormous source of tax revenue for the city and many public services quite literally depend on that revenue. One of the major issues in the city now is the city government's obstinate refusal to approve more housing development. The idea that tech workers are gentrif…

You might be underestimating the effect of prop 13. There's a large number of older SF residents who aren't techies, but can easily afford to live here because they bought property here 20+ years ago when it was much cheaper and now pay almost zero property tax. To be sure there are a lot of people in tech jobs, but there are lots of other well-paying jobs in the city in areas like finance, law, consulting, etc.

I’m not sympathetic to tax dodgers that set up a pyramid scheme (prop 13) that I (as a California homeowner of working age) am a victim of.

The hypothetical person in your example must be making way under local poverty level income to have trouble living in SF without housing and tax expenses.

They could get a job, or move out and extract rent from a techie.

From my perspective, they are sitting on a winning lottery ticket and whining about how they don’t want to spend it, but want all the other benefits.

Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#474

Post by hedora »

HWR_14 wrote: post #322
__loam wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average SF resident probably works for a tech company considering how many natives have been driven out by high housing costs. Tech companies are an enormous source of tax revenue for the city and many public services quite literally depend on that revenue. One of the major issues in the city now is the city government's obstinate refusal to approve more housing development. The idea that tech workers are gentrif…

A public schoolteacher in San Francisco needs to make 30,000 a year more than they are getting paid now just to be above the poverty level. Maybe it's bad for the teachers and other people not in tech if there are that many people running around spending tons of money. But it's not a question. Most people in SF (let alone those who commute in) do not work for tech companies. Edit: Teachers need to make 25,000 a year…

Note that, if prop 13 were repealed, teachers could be paid more and many houses would become available for purchase for less than current prices.

Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#475

Post by TaylorAlexander »

doktrin wrote: post #470
TaylorAlexander wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the young, healthy people who live in moderate climates with good weather, short commutes, and little need to haul anything The old dutch people riding their bakfietsen around in the snow show this is much more a cultural thing than a hard fact of weather and human nature - and culture can change as the need arises. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQhzEnWCgHA As far as short commutes - that's as much a fact…

You are giving culture an awful lot of credit while completely omitting geography. Culture is locally adapted, and countries that are flat as literal pancakes are particularly logical places for a bike friendly culture to develop.

Parent didn't mention geography. I was mostly replying to the comment about weather, age, and cargo capacity. Obviously the difference between the Netherlands and some other flat cold place is culture, though you are right hills can impact things. One thing we can do to reduce the issue with hills is set better (higher) power limits for ebikes. The current limit in the USA of 750 watts is way too low for cargo bikes. Even for my normal ebike which I run at 1400 watts, I find it feels safer as I can keep up with the flow of traffic on city streets (though I have a lot of lighting, safety gear, and experience and I would support licensing restrictions for higher powers). The power restrictions are even worse in the UK at maximum 250 watts, which is terribly low.

Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#476

Post by askafriend »

lotsoweiners wrote: post #464
jarjoura wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The person the tech is replacing will still need to work and earn a wage to afford the goods the system that replaced them is delivering. It's not replacing a relatively high risk job or allowing that driver to scale themselves and improve their efficiency in any way. It's just eliminating their job, because. As a passenger in a driverless taxi, instead of having someone in the car who might improve the journey sligh…

> As a passenger in a driverless taxi, instead of having someone in the car who might improve the journey slightly by being an interesting person to chat with, I'll likely sit in the car all alone. This sounds like a feature to me. Include a minibar and it’ll be my own personal limo.

I would pay more for this experience. It sounds great.

Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#477

Post by askafriend »

dekhn wrote: post #131
saalweachter wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US rate is 0.57 fatalities per 100 million passenger miles.

Americans drove 3.2 trillion miles in 2021 and 42,795 people died in traffic fatalities (both values are estimates, and likely do not include every single mile driven or fatality that occurred, depending on how you prefer to count). So humans drive average of 74 million miles before a person gets killed, and Waymo's driven somewhere above 20M miles but probably fewer than 74M. At this point, I'd expect no self-drivin…

Most of those miles are highway miles though.

Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#478

Post by breuleux »

xyzzyz wrote: post #376
nerdbert wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They work for the majority of people of all ages who live in cities where the infrastructure has been properly built to accommodate bikes. Most people rarely need to haul anything and can use carshare when they do. I've demoed a multistory house down to the bricks and re-built it from the outside in without a car. Hired someone to haul off a dumpster several times. For major materials deliveries, like beams or window…

I have been driving my children to daycare for past 3 years. I will be driving my children to daycare for at least 3 more years. Bicycle is not a viable replacement for this use case, sorry. My situation is far from unique, raising children is quite universal human experience.

I would argue that the root problem here is: why are there no daycares within walking distance of you? In an ideal world you would neither drive nor bike to it, you would just walk. Surely the large distances that parents have to go to get their children to school are not an inevitability but rather a consequence of bad urban planning.

Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#479

Post by z3ugma »

14u2c wrote: post #323
nerdbert wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They work for the majority of people of all ages who live in cities where the infrastructure has been properly built to accommodate bikes. Most people rarely need to haul anything and can use carshare when they do. I've demoed a multistory house down to the bricks and re-built it from the outside in without a car. Hired someone to haul off a dumpster several times. For major materials deliveries, like beams or window…

I'm guessing you live somewhere that does not get very cold. I love my ebike but sometimes it's just not feasible.

This too is a policy choice. Oulu is colder and snowier than Minneapolis but because they have prioritized a built environment where cold weather cyclists get top priority, more people cycle year round:

Why Canadians Can't Bike in the Winter (but Finnish people can) https://youtu.be/Uhx-26GfCBU via @YouTube

Re: S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’

#480

Post by z3ugma »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #258
Aurornis wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A 60lb e-bike can also transport a 200 lb person whilst using far less resources (both to make the vehicle and to operate it) and space. E-bikes are great for the situations, climates, and people who can use them. E-bikes are not a substitute for the majority of people’s transportation needs. I think the young, healthy people who live in moderate climates with good weather, short commutes, and little need to haul a…

> and little need to haul anything often forget The dutch created the cargo bike for this very reason. But they have the climate and biking infrastructure to support that kind of lifestyle. We (Americans) don't, I wish we did.

That’s false. Watch this video for a good explanation why:

Why Canadians Can't Bike in the Winter (but Finnish people can) https://youtu.be/Uhx-26GfCBU via @YouTube

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