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Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
151–160 of 233 posts
Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is all unfolding literally right now. It looks like a military base in Moscow is now on fire. Edit… Also reports of fighting between Wagner and russia's national guard on the Rostov-Moscow highway. Wagner are on the move towards Moscow.
Rostov is 1,000 km from Moscow.
> Rostov is 1,000 km from Moscow.
Yeah, but its 1,000 freeway km, with no substantial existing prepared defenses short of the forces deployed in Moscow as part of the emergency plan that’s been activated, not 1,000 km defended like Bakhmut where every meter takes an eternity and extracts a high price. Its maybe a day or so away, which gives no meaningful time for mobilization and defensive deployments that would slow down ang advance.
Prigozhin may have bit off more than he can chew unless there are immediate mass defections to his side (or at least mass refusals to engage against Wagner), but there’s unlikely to be anything meaningful stopping him from reaching Moscow with whatever forces he decides to send.
Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
#153This is absurd. It makes no sense. I'm calling psyop.
It makes perfect sense if you’ve been following the Russian factional infighting, and a lot more sense than it being a psyop does. Whose psyop? To what end?
Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's easy to call something a psyop, but have you got a specific reason why this would be done? It's not like that would confuse their enemy in any way, same areas need reclaiming anyway, same troops can be observed. "There's internal conflict" has been known for a while and unless there's practical impact, it doesn't seem to affect what Ukraine needs to do.
Because announcing a coup in advance is stupendously idiotic? Ina traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings. They announcing a change of government and people turn up to work Monday morning. On Friday evening?! They must be copying the failed Turkey coup that had to move forwards because they were uncovered.
> Because announcing a coup in advance is stupendously idiotic?
There are different kinds of blows directed at leadership that work primarily by surprise seizure or elimonation of key personnel and/or facilities, perhaps the most traditional “military coup”.
There are mass mutinies by military formations, which are essentially armed direct-action protests by troops, often under their established leadership. A sizable formation declaring them and calling on others to join is not at all unheard of. Functionally, they can succeed as a form of coup or half-coup (replacing the top leadership or forcing concessions) while retaining the basic state infrastructure, or end up as a key part of a more complete revolution (or, obviously, just fail). They are a very real historical thing.
Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
> a traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings This is a military coup. The army is in Zaporizhia. Moscow is defended by the FSB and national guard. Prigozhin needs to rally disgruntled forces to his side to enable him to move his troops. Quietly maneuvering would hand the narrative to the regime.
> The army is in Zaporizhia Ah, yes, all 3 regiments, none left in Moscow.
UK MoD estimated earlier in the year that 97% of the Russian Army was deployed to Ukraine.
The 1st Guards Tank Army, which includes the elite units traditionally tasked with Moscow's defense, the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and the 4th Guards Tank Division has been heavily committed in Ukraine for most of the war.
There is a defensive plan activated and deployment of forces in Moscow, sure, but Wagner has a lot of troops and combat experience, and what Russia has kept available at home mostly aren’t regular army troops, but Nationa Guard troops mainly used for intimidating civilians.
Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
#156Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
Prigozhin claims Wagner shot down a helicopter (in Rostov?), but again theres no evidence yet.
What evidence would you accept? I’ve seen a video that appears to support the idea that a helicopter was at least fired at.
Photographic confirmation of the debris on the ground along with verification of the location.
OSINT community has been doing a stellar job with visual confirmation of Russian losses.
Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Prince.
As in… “having read Machiavelli’s The Prince, I am aware that a mercenary army is not reliable?” ?? That’s what keeps occurring to me.
As the general sent to butcher a region and then was executed for doing what he was actually asked for.
His fate was obvious from he beginning but he went there with such impediment that's quite strange he's stil' breathing.
Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
#159Earlier quoted context omitted.
What evidence would you accept? I’ve seen a video that appears to support the idea that a helicopter was at least fired at.
Photographic confirmation of the debris on the ground along with verification of the location. OSINT community has been doing a stellar job with visual confirmation of Russian losses.
That seems pretty unreasonable given it happened less than 24 hours ago, but here’s a video of some smouldering debris.
Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'll say this, the guy is bold as hell. He's an absolute maniac and probably worse than Putin but he sure isn't afraid of anything. One can only hope he wrecks enough chaos make the war in Ukraine untenable. I'll also say this, Putin played his hand as poorly as humanly possible. He spent decades stockpiling loyalty and political capital with an iron fist and spent it all in less two years and has absolutely nothing…
He watched the US disaster with Iraq and was like “oh yeah? hold my vodka…” He even spread lies about Ukrainian bio weapons (WMDs!) in an echo of the Iraq war buildup BS. Someone should have told him that Iraq was a disaster for the US and is now widely regarded as such by most of DC (whether or not they say it in public).
America lost like 4k soldiers over the 8 year war and lost no economic standing. It was expensive and stupid but not really a disaster for us.
Russia has lost over 100k in a year and effectively destroyed their economy and place in the world outside of nukes, all for basically no reason.