Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

worldbulletin.net

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 233 posts

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#131

Post by jareds »

tootie wrote: post #59
rdtsc wrote: post #23

Wagner leader Prigozhin is gambling and betting everything on red (or black?). The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians see Prigozhin as a hero. If they kill him, he'll become a martyr. For all I care both sides are war criminals and should answer for their atrocities in Ukraine. If they can kill each other without also killing civilians, don't think we should stand in their way t…

I'll say this, the guy is bold as hell. He's an absolute maniac and probably worse than Putin but he sure isn't afraid of anything. One can only hope he wrecks enough chaos make the war in Ukraine untenable. I'll also say this, Putin played his hand as poorly as humanly possible. He spent decades stockpiling loyalty and political capital with an iron fist and spent it all in less two years and has absolutely nothing…

Is he bold and unafraid? My thought is he believes he has a 0% chance of living to this time next year given the current way things are going. If rebelling increases his odds to 0.5% and he doesn't care about the lives of anyone else it's the logical thing to do.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#132

Post by wrp »

mcphage wrote: post #125
baybal2 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties. Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian. The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highsch…

> Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself. > Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler? I’m not sure I follow you here. You’re saying…

He is complaining that the West does a poor job of elevating well-informed commenters to prominence. Having close association to the Soviet/Russia watching community since the 1980s, I agree. The problem is that the kind of people who get the on-the-ground experience you need are not the type who play politics well and rise in organizations.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#135

Post by [deleted] »

baybal2 wrote: post #89
Youden wrote: post #37

Better known source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-...

An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties. Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian. The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highsch…

[deleted]

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#136

Post by [deleted] »

baybal2 wrote: post #89
Youden wrote: post #37

Better known source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-...

An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties. Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian. The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highsch…

[deleted]

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#137

Post by credit_guy »

baybal2 wrote: post #89
Youden wrote: post #37

Better known source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-...

An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties. Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian. The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highsch…

Maybe you missed this blog post of Timothy Snyder [1] from October last year:

  Is it a stretch to suppose that Prigozhin is sparing whatever valuable men and material he has left?  He has been openly recruiting Russian prisoners to fight for Wagner in Ukraine; I would venture the supposition that he is sending them to die and keeping back the men and equipment who might have a future in some other endeavor. [...] In the overall logic that I am describing, rivals would seek to conserve whatever fighting forces they have, either to protect their own personal interests during an unpredictable time, or to make a play for Moscow.
[1] https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-w...

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#138

Post by JumpCrisscross »

justsomehnguy wrote: post #127
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings This is a military coup. The army is in Zaporizhia. Moscow is defended by the FSB and national guard. Prigozhin needs to rally disgruntled forces to his side to enable him to move his troops. Quietly maneuvering would hand the narrative to the regime.

> The army is in Zaporizhia Ah, yes, all 3 regiments, none left in Moscow.

> yes, all 3 regiments, none left in Moscow

Nobody said Moscow is undefended. Just less able to defend itself than usual. Much of the Russian Western military district is deployed towards Ukraine. Sensibly, Putin’s most loyal should have been held back. But the war is going terribly. If his loyalists were forward deployed, that changes the calculus.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#139

Post by hindsightbias »

baybal2 wrote: post #89
Youden wrote: post #37

Better known source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-...

An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties. Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian. The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highsch…

> while this exact scenario

And of course, no citation ever given. Every Russian is woke and we’re just ignorant.

Every western expert everywhere has been saying forever that Putin wasn’t going anywhere until someone in the defense arena had enough to take on the security state. And it won’t matter how it turns out, as the new Vlad will be the same as the old Vlad.

We know all we need to know abput Russia. A people without agency looking for a new daddy.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#140

Post by roncesvalles »

tootie wrote: post #59
rdtsc wrote: post #23

Wagner leader Prigozhin is gambling and betting everything on red (or black?). The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians see Prigozhin as a hero. If they kill him, he'll become a martyr. For all I care both sides are war criminals and should answer for their atrocities in Ukraine. If they can kill each other without also killing civilians, don't think we should stand in their way t…

I'll say this, the guy is bold as hell. He's an absolute maniac and probably worse than Putin but he sure isn't afraid of anything. One can only hope he wrecks enough chaos make the war in Ukraine untenable. I'll also say this, Putin played his hand as poorly as humanly possible. He spent decades stockpiling loyalty and political capital with an iron fist and spent it all in less two years and has absolutely nothing…

In every single video I've seen of him he looks drunk.
Post reply on HN