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Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

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Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#121

Post by api »

tootie wrote: post #59
rdtsc wrote: post #23

Wagner leader Prigozhin is gambling and betting everything on red (or black?). The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians see Prigozhin as a hero. If they kill him, he'll become a martyr. For all I care both sides are war criminals and should answer for their atrocities in Ukraine. If they can kill each other without also killing civilians, don't think we should stand in their way t…

I'll say this, the guy is bold as hell. He's an absolute maniac and probably worse than Putin but he sure isn't afraid of anything. One can only hope he wrecks enough chaos make the war in Ukraine untenable. I'll also say this, Putin played his hand as poorly as humanly possible. He spent decades stockpiling loyalty and political capital with an iron fist and spent it all in less two years and has absolutely nothing…

He watched the US disaster with Iraq and was like “oh yeah? hold my vodka…”

He even spread lies about Ukrainian bio weapons (WMDs!) in an echo of the Iraq war buildup BS.

Someone should have told him that Iraq was a disaster for the US and is now widely regarded as such by most of DC (whether or not they say it in public).

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#123

Post by everyone »

ptero wrote: post #107
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they kill him, he'll become a martyr Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.

Totally an armchair opinion, but I think Prigozhin is a toast and he knows it. He cannot fight (troops hated, plus ranks decimated in Bakhmut) and cannot hide (no one will take him). He may be just trying to go down with a bang. My 2c.

Wagner are actualy the coup masters, that was like their main job. Wagner's bread and butter before the war was getting control of small countries and especially gold and diamond mines and other valuable resources in Africa. Maybe Prygozhyn reckons russia is about as weak as one of those countries now and he can take it. He has some popular support. Sure russia has the nukes, but they cant use them to stop a coup, are they gonna nuke themselves?

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#125

Post by mcphage »

baybal2 wrote: post #89
Youden wrote: post #37

Better known source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-...

An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties. Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian. The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highsch…

> Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself.

> Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler?

I’m not sure I follow you here. You’re saying that Westerners don’t understand things even known to high schoolers in Russia. I believe you.

But then you say it’s because we try and find the best source for our information, and that also seems true. But it also seems like you’re saying that that’s the wrong course of action?

It reads like you’re telling us that our sources aren’t good enough, but also complaining that we’re trying to find good sources.

At any rate, I don’t happen to know any Russian high schoolers, so I have no way of asking them directly what it is that they talk about at the watercooler. I’d ask you, but that would just be me instinctively reaching for another “best known source”.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#126

Post by everyone »

dbsights wrote: post #100

My guess: its a tactic designed to embolden the enemy and keep them committed to a failing strategy. Bakhmut was a meat grinder, but as long as the hope of victory could be kept alive in the Ukrainian army, they would keep sending their troops to slaughter. So we got all of these videos about chaos & ammo running out on the Russian side. And the Ukrainians obligingly poured manpower into an almost-perfectly-surrounde…

Ukraine was defending in an urban area. They were trading casualties favourably with Russian the entire time.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#127

Post by justsomehnguy »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82
psychphysic wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because announcing a coup in advance is stupendously idiotic? Ina traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings. They announcing a change of government and people turn up to work Monday morning. On Friday evening?! They must be copying the failed Turkey coup that had to move forwards because they were uncovered.

> a traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings This is a military coup. The army is in Zaporizhia. Moscow is defended by the FSB and national guard. Prigozhin needs to rally disgruntled forces to his side to enable him to move his troops. Quietly maneuvering would hand the narrative to the regime.

> The army is in Zaporizhia

Ah, yes, all 3 regiments, none left in Moscow.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#128

Post by yreg »

yakshaving_jgt wrote: post #56
5e92cb50239222b wrote: post #5

There has been a lot of talk, but no concrete actions yet. No marches anywhere, no clashes between regular armed forces and the PMC, nothing. Some armored vehicles were put on the streets of Moscow and Rostov (which is located near the border with Ukraine), but that's about it. https://t.me/svtvnews/31224 https://t.me/svtvnews/31232

This is all unfolding literally right now. It looks like a military base in Moscow is now on fire. Edit… Also reports of fighting between Wagner and russia's national guard on the Rostov-Moscow highway. Wagner are on the move towards Moscow.

Prigozhin claims Wagner shot down a helicopter (in Rostov?), but again theres no evidence yet.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#129

Post by treis »

ptero wrote: post #107
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they kill him, he'll become a martyr Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.

Totally an armchair opinion, but I think Prigozhin is a toast and he knows it. He cannot fight (troops hated, plus ranks decimated in Bakhmut) and cannot hide (no one will take him). He may be just trying to go down with a bang. My 2c.

Wagner definitely can fight and I think this is a real danger for Putin. The invasion did not go well and he's vulnerable to more hawkish members of the military who wish to escalate the war.

It's not guaranteed that units will agree to deploy against other Russians. Not guaranteed that if they deploy they will fight. Not guaranteed that if they fight they will win.

Wagner has crossed the Rubicon and now it's do or die for them. They'll fight hard and are probably the most capable individual fighting force in Russia right now. Biggest challenge they face is air strikes. But if they brought SAMs with them or the air force won't bomb things will get dicey quickly.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#130

Post by jareds »

baybal2 wrote: post #89
Youden wrote: post #37

Better known source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-...

An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties. Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian. The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highsch…

"the best known source" is specific to each individual. I've never scene the referenced site before the post today so am unlikely to take what it says at face value with out more research. As someone who follows the news on the war by reading understandingwar.org I'm not surprised this has happened.
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