Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes • Hacker News Board

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#161

Post by dmead » Fri, Jun 16, 2023, 11:59 PM UTC

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #40

amelius wrote: post #5

> He emphasizes that the Earth’s magnetic field, a result of eddy currents in our planet’s liquid core, alters the trajectory of primary cosmic radiation’s charged particles. > Therefore, any substantial earthquakes linked to disturbances in the Earth’s dynamo flows would alter the magnetic field, thus impacting the path of primary cosmic radiation. The fallout of these alterations would be apparent in the changes in…

Well a confounding variable would be that we already know tectonic movements change the magnetic field. In fact that's the thing that triggers alarms for me here. Haven't they just found that we detect more cosmic rays when there's tectonic movement? Cosmic rays are influenced by the magnetic field and the magnetic field is influenced by tectonic movement. Why are they pushing the line that cosmic rays cause earthqua…

That was my thought as well. I'd bet money that these people are wackjobs and need to be seen as insightful.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#162

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 12:01 AM UTC

idlewords wrote: post #16

olivermarks wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is 'sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that then kick off earthquakes' a loopy idea? We are hours away from coronal mass ejection catastrophe right now as solar cycle 20 builds in intensity. It seems reasonable to me that the complex relationship between the moon's gravitational pull and massive sun activity could affect our tiny little planet

The idea is loopy because the energy that reaches the earth from even a massive solar flare is orders of magnitude less than the energy released by a major earthquake, and that is orders of magnitudes less than the energies that drive the dynamo in the Earth's core. It's possible for a falling leaf to hit a mountain in just such a way that it dislodges a boulder balanced on top, but you need to tell a pretty compelli…

[deleted]

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#163

Post by refibrillator » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 12:03 AM UTC

mjhay wrote: post #135

refibrillator wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you regarding p-values. But why are you appealing to credentials and dismissing the idea with your own boldly unsupported claim? > The causality they're claiming just does not have any physical plausibility. Survey the literature and you’ll find plenty of evidence that there is some credence to the idea.

Geomagnetism is easily measurable and has been monitored for a long time. The central claim is that changes in cosmic ray frequencies can predict earthquakes. The proposed causal mechanism is changes in the geodynamo affecting the propagation of cosmic rays. The effect on cosmic rays is secondary to the changes in geomagnetism. Despite decades of people looking for evidence, changes in geomagnetism are not associated…

You're incorrect or confused on several aspects so let me break it down for you.

Frequency of detection of secondary cosmic radiation is very sensitive to geomagnetic conditions. That is not up for dispute.

The paper in question provides statistical evidence that "variations of secondary cosmic ray detection rates are periodically correlated with future global earthquake magnitude sum".

The paper contains no claims about precisely predicting seismic activity in terms of geographic location or time of occurrence. The authors make this abundantly clear.

The USGS page you linked has no citations or even a timestamp. I'd wager it hasn't been updated in ages. It's not the decisive source you want it to be.

Here's the paper in question if you want to actually read it: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2204/2204.12310.pdf

Take a look at this research from NASA, it is one of the many papers that completely contradicts your claim that "changes in geomagnetism are not associated with earthquakes": https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=...

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#164

Post by MisterBastahrd » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 12:21 AM UTC

idlewords wrote: post #6

The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…

Newton observed that the apple fell from a tree.

He then noted that it was the apple that moved, not the Earth.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#165

Post by supernova87a » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 12:27 AM UTC

There are many recorded reports of lightning, atmospheric visual effects (change in sky color, appearance of storm-like light conditions) that coincide with earthquakes. Which presumably / conceivably have to do with stresses in the rocks being displaced causing electric side effects. So it's not such a stretch of the imagination that this could affect the magnetic/electric fields around the Earth and change the trajectory of ions around the Earth as well.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#166

Post by EdwardDiego » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 12:27 AM UTC

miika wrote: post #96

This was discussed quite a bit after 2004 asian tsunami, which was triggered by an earthquake near Antarctica and there was also some massive gamma ray burst (or something) occurring about the same time. I wouldn’t be surprised. It’s a connected universe. No thing is an island.

Triggered by an earthquake near Antarctica? Citation really freaking needed there. I've got one that says there was no causative effect.

https://web.archive.org/web/20141213144822/http://earthquake...

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#167

Post by refibrillator » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 12:30 AM UTC

idlewords wrote: post #6

The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…

> looking for precursor patterns in an ad hoc way, with no physical theory in mind

A bit of skepticism is healthy but some of these threads are approaching downright dismissive.

There's a long history of research in this area to be aware of, though I know the paper in question doesn't elaborate on it.

Here's one physical theory for you, straight from NASA [1].

> In the ionosphere, the solar winds generate electrical currents. On the Earth surface, these currents cause magnetic field fluctuations. These fluctuations, penetrating the Earth interior, induce the electrical currents J, and, in the presence of the Earth magnetic field B, generate electromagnetic force, known as Lorentz force F = J × B. To study the relation of earthquakes and the Lorentz force, acting at the near onset times of strong earthquakes, we examine the Kp index, a logarithmic measure of the magnetic field deviation. The time varying Kp index gives us J, which in turn determines F.

> The Lorentz force tilts the subtle force balance in the earth crust towards triggering the release of stress strain energy, initiating an earthquake in a similar way as a mountain climber’s step can trigger the avalanches. The internal dynamics, however, are highly statistical.

> We find that the distinctive patterns of the Kp surges often strongly correlate to the onset of earthquake. This correlation depends on the seismic regions and the magnitudes of earthquakes. The stronger the earthquake is, more closely the Kp surge is associated. The statistical significance of nearly 100% is obtained for the Kp variations, synchronizing with more earthquakes in the Pacific Rim region.

[1] Geomagnetic Kp Index and Earthquakes (2018) https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=...

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#168

Post by AnotherGoodName » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 12:37 AM UTC

detrites wrote: post #80

jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you vastly underestimate the scale and energies involved in geological processes. HAARP is a ~4 megawatt radio transmitter. That's it. It doesn't have mysterious unknown abilities to send energy deep underground.

Theorising I've seen on this - though, I don't recall where - suggested targeting resonances with HAARP in a similar way to how a human singer can shatter a wineglass, by projecting the crystals frequency, causing it to oscillate itself to pieces. That is high-watt transmission power may not be required. And further, it was suggested it's not done in isolation by HAARP but cooperatively with various transmitters also…

The HAARP conspiracy theories are fun and date back to the old days of conspiracy theories when people wore tin foil hats and worried about government mind rays. Not at all based in reality or sensible but at least those conspiracies were harmless and non-political.

Anyway... no there's no evidence. But i do miss these classic conspiracy theories! Anyone remember the X-Files episode featuring HAARP?

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#169

Post by musicale » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 12:53 AM UTC

jvanderbot wrote: post #94

idlewords wrote: post #6

The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…

Precursor signals for earthquakes is a field that has about as much credibility as astrology, from the few conversations I've had with professional geologists and planetary scientists. I had a minor and short-lived role in designing a sensor network that might be useful for these kinds of low-signal, high-noise precursors, and I got nothing but strange looks from actual geologists.

> as much credibility as astrology

If this sort of scientific astrology ends up providing precursor signals for future earthquakes, why would geologists have a problem with it?

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#170

Post by idlewords » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 1:01 AM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #160

idlewords wrote: post #6

The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…

One thing that troubles me in the paper is that the researchers appear to have gone looking for precursor patterns in an ad hoc way, with no physical theory in mind That seems like an extremely good thing to me. Looking for patterns and then figuring out causality later is a great way to solve real-world problems. Of course you can be led astray if your filters are too open, but if your work is rigorous and you still…

If you dredge through enough random data, you will always find a six sigma correlation (or five, or however many sigmas you want), kind of by definition. This is why experimenters like particle physicists or gravitational wave astronomers who have petabytes of raw data have to define their criteria in advance, instead of just going to town looking for patterns.

I agree with you that if this observation proves to have predictive power, then the way it was found doesn't matter. But right now we're at the less reliable "we looked at all conceivable retroactive combinations of stuff and found this pattern" stage of the process.