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First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

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Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the location, the timing, the symptoms, the severity of the illness (it's unusual for 'flu to put healthy young adults in hospital) I think we can be pretty confident in our guess.

Importantly, Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults. In the vast majority of adults, the symptoms are mild and nonspecific. So the idea that all of these researchers would have contracted Covid and present with symptoms specific/indicative of Covid is absurd. The chances of that must be infinitesimally small. If they had the typical, flu- and cold-like symptoms that most people experience…

The earliest strains of Covid were by far the most severe ones. It's not that surprising to me that the very first patients contracted a strain more likely to put them in the hospital.

The severity also depends a lot on viral load.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the location, the timing, the symptoms, the severity of the illness (it's unusual for 'flu to put healthy young adults in hospital) I think we can be pretty confident in our guess.

My Aunt was killed by the flu. She had a pre-existing unknown heart-condition and despite her healthy lifestyle the flu weakened her heart enough that she needed a heart-transplant in her early 20s. She died at age 27. I tell this story whenever it is possible, to educate people about what the flu is capable of doing, whenever someone says the flu is "no big deal." Statistically, perhaps not. Unless you're the statis…

It happens but it is rare. Given the COVID outbreak, it is definitely circumstancial evidence.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#613

Unless someone has specimen samples from the sick WIV scientists, this doesn't really prove anything. Nasty respiratory viruses with Covid-like symptoms aren't actually that rare, and there's a lot of overlap between a bad respiratory infection and a mild Covid infection. I've talked to numerous people in the US who swore they had the full checklist of Covid symptoms well before the November 2019 date they're talking…

Totally agree. It's kind of annoying that we don't even have a system like this for the researchers at the labs!

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#614

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The non-lab-leak coincidence required: 1. They made a mistake in the lab, exposing themselves to a virus (not covid-19) 2. That virus was non-human-transmissible 3. The exposure happened 1-several weeks before the actual start of covid-19 at the market That's not impossible, especially if the lab was sloppy and (1) happened fairly regularly. Given the early concentration of cases around the market, and the detection…

Could you remind us what the "non-lab-leak scenario" is again? To be clear, is your "likeliness" determined on whether we can find a creature that is more similar to covid than RaTG13 (we haven't) or something else?

The non lab leak scenario is just what it historically has been for ~70% of all viruses that we can trace (and probably the remainder as well, but we have no evidence): zoonotic jump.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#615
post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By us, I mean the govt. The ivermectin stuff is irrelevant. We also had doofuses claim masks won’t help and they flip flopped. They aren’t relevant either in a response for future containment and policy. The doofuses directly and indirectly funded WIV and if shown that was harmful can act to stop that. https://www.bbc.com/news/57932699.amp Truth is always better even if no action is taken.

I mean, to be fair -- they said we needed to conserve all the masks we had for medical staff because they had no idea what was coming.

> I mean, to be fair -- they said we needed to conserve all the masks we had for medical staff because they had no idea what was coming.

Its also worth noting that this was the direct result of off-shoring manufacturing to China, who could then threaten to withhold delivery of new PPE if they continued to pursuit the lab leak theory at the same time they were curtailing protests in Hong Kong and disspearing physicians who were speaking out about the severity of COVID and implementing their zero COVID policy and physically barricading people in their homes or comically netting them on the street.

I think HN has a this terrible need to play 'but my guy/source is more trust worthy because of X' the truth is all sides have an agenda, what I think is not in question is how revealing it was how little they respect the intelligence of the general public in what was thought to be a dire health crisis.

That's the ONLY real take away, sitting here and trying to distract from this fact, is the stark realization that there is a direct funding source for GoF viral studies provided by the NIH [0] shows that no party is innocent here.

In addition to that the CCP didn't allow investigations to take place effectively from the international community, and the subsequent floods that happened in Wuhan in 2020 ensured that the truth will likely never be known which is the best resolution to what is likely a complete debacle of epic proportions as plausible deniability and saber rattling in the Taiwan straight and the Russian invasion of Ukraine were enough to sweep things under the rug.

I unlike e rest of my friends worked in the health sciences, and to be honest I was the first to mention in my circle of friends that this was likely an unitentional lab leak situation I got the stink eye; it was because I saw what was happening in November in Hong Kong in '19 during the aftermath of the protests in the Summer that had escalated in intensity and were leading what was outright revolution as momentum increased. The Bird flu epidemic overwhelmed and devastated the medical system in HK and the CCP knew that (it was overrun by ill mainlanders) used that very real trauma and weaponized it in order force people to stop te protests in order to pass the NSL, jail dissidents and then weaponized zero COVID as a policy to illegally annex Hong Kong in direct violation of the hand-over and international law.

What was worse is the CCP forced the borders open during covid fir and used mainlanders as vectors for Chinese nationals into HK (and blatantly ignored or outright purposely spread infection) further prolonging and increasing infection rates needed to justify these measures in what was an unprecedented and alarming show of display as Lam and the police followed a more PLA playbook to handling the domestic situation.

Furthermore, the exiled virologist (Dr. Li-Meng Yan) who worked on at the WIV but was scrubbed fled the mainland and came out about the GoF work she had done there, but sadly because she was platformed by Trump affiliates her claims and work were disregarded showing how divisive and polarizing people were on this matter, despite the fact that the physician who spoke out about COVID early on died a terrible and painful death because the CCP wanted to make an example of him. This was wen clubhouse let mainlanders use a more open platform to communicate online mind you and riots were breaking out.

Again, if you think that health sciences isn't at it's core an immensely corrupt system and enterprise it's only because you neither worked in it or are benefiting from it being so. On need only look at the reputations pharma has, people like the Sacklers are only exploiting a very clear flaw in the medial system and know they can ultimately get a way with it due to the well understood conflicts of interests. It's the path of least resistance, and to think that nation states aren't looking out for their own interests an will lie and manipulate the population is the height of willful ignorance, especially since it's so very clearly effective: as seen here.

> Some of them said that. Many of them explicitly told the public that masks wouldn't help. However impeccable your motives for doing so, lying to the public should destroy your credibility.

As an Anarchist, if that were true than the entire enterprise of politics should collapse over night, but it doesn't because it is perhpas the most wide and willfully held form of ignorance and denial: we are too fixated on a chieftain based social order as a Species. Until we overcome this immense defect in the Human condition, you can rest assured that the most unscrupulous amongst us will continue to benefit and profit from this flawed system.

0: https://theintercept.com/2021/09/09/covid-origins-gain-of-fu...

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Importantly, Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults. In the vast majority of adults, the symptoms are mild and nonspecific. So the idea that all of these researchers would have contracted Covid and present with symptoms specific/indicative of Covid is absurd. The chances of that must be infinitesimally small. If they had the typical, flu- and cold-like symptoms that most people experience…

The earliest strains of Covid were by far the most severe ones. It's not that surprising to me that the very first patients contracted a strain more likely to put them in the hospital. The severity also depends a lot on viral load.

That's part of it. The other part is that once the weakest individuals in the population have died the remainder will be stronger on average and so they may be able to deal with infection that much better.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#617
post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this is just magical thinking, some variation of the naturalistic fallacy. Nature absolutely will accept molecular tinkering if it provides an evolutionary advantage. Another commenter pointed out that, for a while, the virus became more dangerous over time, not less. And the extent to which COVID has become less dangerous over time (which probably has as much to do with widespread immunity either via vaccination…

Everything is relative, and Luc's view has aged better than authoritative admonitions that the virus might never moderate in severity.[1] I mean, Luc was a Nobel prize winner in this field. His ideas were creative , sure, but magical ? It's not hard to see the logic-- these kinds of molecules subside in evolution because they didn't arise from evolution in the first place. I mean, his opinion was a first take when th…

If the virus was reverting to its "true nature" or "undoing" molecular tinkering, then I would expect to see a clear pattern of progress/equilibration towards a specific strain. That doesn't appear to be the case; the virus is continually branching out into a host of sub lineages, some of which are more transmissible, some more virulent, some less affected by vaccines.

It's a rule of thumb that variants which are more transmissible and less virulent are more likely to succeed over time, and I remember discussing this with people early in the pandemic. By no means does this provide credence for a lab leak hypothesis.

I think "magical" is quite an accurate description of the idea that even viruses have a "true nature" that they will revert to. That's some Plato-level adherence to the rigidity of nature.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#619
post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, among the "mistakes" Taibbi recently "owned up to" is falsifying information in his Twtter Files reporting. Among other things, he deliberately misrepresented mentions of the non-profit Center for Internet Security (CIS) as the federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). It's clear that was not a mistake, but a choice he made in order to further a specific narrative - one that he only admitte…

Two minor and inconsequential errors that he owned up to even before the segment aired. This is a particularly stupid gotcha given that CIS was the government contractor working for CISA/DHS to help facilitate social media takedown requests — Mehdi focuses on a minor error while obscuring the big picture to defend the Department of Homeland Security’s overreach. Per SCOTUS, working through an intermediary is not a lo…

Those are not minor and inconsequential errors. They are matters of principle.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the location, the timing, the symptoms, the severity of the illness (it's unusual for 'flu to put healthy young adults in hospital) I think we can be pretty confident in our guess.

Importantly, Covid very rarely results in severe symptoms for middle aged adults. In the vast majority of adults, the symptoms are mild and nonspecific. So the idea that all of these researchers would have contracted Covid and present with symptoms specific/indicative of Covid is absurd. The chances of that must be infinitesimally small. If they had the typical, flu- and cold-like symptoms that most people experience…

Not sure why you are being downvoted, that is something that struck me as well. In particular Vanilla strains were milder than beta/delta.

Don't get me wrong, Covid is a deadly disease with a lethality of 1-2 %, but the typical symptoms for a 30 year old are mild.

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