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The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

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Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#41

Did Ukraine just wipe out majority of Russian defences? That could go down in history as one of the boldest moves ever.

No. Russians are trying to stop the counter offensive. This move will free up troops to defend Melitopol. Capturing that city effectively blocks land supply route to Crimea.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#42

The effect/kinetic energy of the water involved would be comparable to that released by a nuclear explosion. Total madness. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/06/nova-kakhovka-... "The reservoir it contains holds an estimated 18 cubic kilometres of water, about the same volume as the Great Salt Lake in Utah. Bursting the dam could send a wall of water flooding settlements below it, including Kherson, which Uk…

The energy will be released over a long time though. Nevertheless, every structure downstream will end up in the black sea.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#43
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have a credible source that goes into detail on that, I'd appreciate it.

There's no significant drinking water source in Crimea. And this was the dam directing water to Crimean water channel. Not sure what other credible source you may want.

The dam disappearing doesn't mean the flow of water disappears. The water level might drop below the intake of the North Crimean Canal, but the canal already requires pumping water uphill to get it all the way to Crimea, so the dam doesn't necessarily have to be fully reconstructed to deal with a lower water level, a second pumping station would be enough.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#44

This article currently has much more information (as of the time of posting) https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/06/russia-uk... ( "Russia-Ukraine war live: dam near Kherson destroyed by Russian forces, says Ukraine, sparking evacuations" )

[flagged]

Crimea has survived without water for years previously. Russia may have determined that the expense of some aquaducts across the Kerch Strait is less than the expense they may incur from a successful Ukrainian crossing of the river.

Or they may have determined they are likely to lose Crimea anyway and are salting the earth behind them.

This is to say, there are plenty of reasons why they may feel motivated to do this. Furthermore they destroyed another smaller dam in Eastern Ukraine only about 2 weeks ago.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#45
post #35
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact it's timed with the first day of the counter offensive and it's been long discussed as a very likely target for Russia that would be one hell of a coincidence.

Yeah it's a bit of a weird one. https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408?ref_... Looks like the dam had been running extremely high so there's cause beyond just random chance, but even that high level could have been deliberate.

Regardless of what actually happened today, the high level was absolutely deliberate, it is just basic dam maintenance to let more water out when it fills. And that was absolutely reckless, contributing to certain deaths today.

Of course, if you are planning on blowing the dam, that makes sense for maximum damage, but I speculate.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#47
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact it's timed with the first day of the counter offensive and it's been long discussed as a very likely target for Russia that would be one hell of a coincidence.

It's been shelled for months probably by all parties at some point > Ukraine's Armed Forces (UAF) "developed a tactic to work around that limitation by conducting multiple precision strikes across the key Antonivskiy Bridge and the road that ran atop the Kakhovka Dam in such a way as to break the roadways in a line across them, rendering them unusable without actually destroying the bridges' infrastructure (or badly…

That roadway was taken out 8 months ago.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia was in control of the dam, had mined it, and had in recent weeks let water levels go up to unprecedented levels. Something like 80 settlements will be completely inundated, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe loses its cooling reservoir and attacks over the river will be impossible for weeks. I don't think Ukraine did it. (getting information from the thread in /r/worldnews).

If it wiped away defences it'd be more than worth it and Ukraine is now more than capable with its Shadow Storm missiles which UK provided just for this kind of attack. It's a very bold move and if intentional it could be pivotal in this conflict.

It doesn't matter if the defenses are wiped out, if you cannot cross to reach those defenses. The terrain and roads will be wrecked and everything will be a muddy mess for miles.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#49
post #45
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah it's a bit of a weird one. https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408?ref_... Looks like the dam had been running extremely high so there's cause beyond just random chance, but even that high level could have been deliberate.

Regardless of what actually happened today, the high level was absolutely deliberate, it is just basic dam maintenance to let more water out when it fills. And that was absolutely reckless, contributing to certain deaths today. Of course, if you are planning on blowing the dam, that makes sense for maximum damage, but I speculate.

Maybe forcing a mechanical failure provides more plausible deniability than simply blowing it up? It also makes it easier to repair considering it's still a valuable source of water for Crimea.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia was in control of the dam, had mined it, and had in recent weeks let water levels go up to unprecedented levels. Something like 80 settlements will be completely inundated, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe loses its cooling reservoir and attacks over the river will be impossible for weeks. I don't think Ukraine did it. (getting information from the thread in /r/worldnews).

If it wiped away defences it'd be more than worth it and Ukraine is now more than capable with its Shadow Storm missiles which UK provided just for this kind of attack. It's a very bold move and if intentional it could be pivotal in this conflict.

It is an act of mass destruction and a war crime, that Ukraine was very worried about for some time since it will kill many innocent people. Very, very unlikely they did it. My first bet would be the dam failed from russian negligence / mismanagement, second the russians blew it up. But there will certainly be video of what happened today soon.
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