Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jun 03, 2023, 2:39 AM UTC

aylmao wrote: post #175

DirectorKrennic wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless Japan's birthrate picks up, its population is slated to fall by a lot more than 2% from its peak. Try 50% or more. A birthrate below 2.1 children per woman leads to extinction.

This is true, Japan's population pyramid [1] looks way more dire that Russia's [2]. Russia's does seem to suggest shrinkage after the big generation born in the 80's passes away, but oscillation afterwards. Japan's is an inverted pyramid. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan#/media/F... [2]: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e8/Russian_...

Post by agensaequivocum » Sat, Jun 03, 2023, 5:33 AM UTC

theshrike79 wrote: post #180

bane wrote: post #133

There are quite a few comments here about "you need money to raise kids". There are similar statements made about housing size, cost, etc. and those end up on "but you don't need 8,000 sq ft to live!" These are, frankly IMHO, bizarre arguments that seem conditioned on socio-commercial training along the lines of "you need a diamond to propose!". Absolutely none of these are true: - People had sex and stable relations…

> I have loads of family in South Korea, a country in near terminal population decline, and the reason I've always heard is "it's expensive to raise a child". But the real reason is, it's expensive to train a child to get into a top-3 university. Raising a child to adulthood is possible even in abject poverty. Isn't the fact that mothers are expected to drop their career and 100% focus on their children also a factor…

Post by ouid » Sat, Jun 03, 2023, 6:01 AM UTC

faeriechangling wrote: post #151

aemreunal wrote: post #8

As the article points out, having a choice, and not being pressured by society into having kids one doesn't want, certainly is a good thing. On the other hand, as the article notes: > [...] cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages [...] the financial aspect is a huge blocker for those who want to have children. We live in a world where the majority of young p…

I don’t buy the hypothesis that it’s simply lack of means driving the lack of fertility. Poorer countries and poorer times both came hand in hand with higher fertility than we see today. My hypothesis isn’t that it’s not affordable, it’s that people don’t stand to personally benefit from having kids, and birth control is available, so they don’t. If you‘re willing to tolerate any quality of life, well you might just…

Post by andrewjl » Sat, Jun 03, 2023, 7:44 AM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #212

bombcar wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly that, it can very quickly snowball and then you just don't need as many buildings anymore. Or look at it this way: https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2020/08/20/facts-on-u-s... > There were a record 44.8 million immigrants living in the U.S. in 2018, making up 13.7% of the nation’s population. If the USA was net neutral on immigration (as many people entered as left), the birth rate would be too low, there…

This is a very important point that gets almost no discussion. Two classic "liberal" policy objectives, immigration and affordable housing, are at war with each other. This is not an "own the libs" comment. Both policy objectives can be morally right, and still work badly with each other. Immigration makes it much harder to fix affordable housing. That's just reality. It seems to be completely ignored by politicians,…

Post by reducesuffering » Sat, Jun 03, 2023, 8:10 AM UTC

prmoustache wrote: post #205

defrost wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In one of the world's sunniest and most remote cities, next to a gorgeous coastline with fabulous beaches, world class surf and a very outdoor culture . . . > The total fertility rate in Greater Perth dipped from 1.76 in 2018 to 1.66 in 2021, spot on the national average. https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/baby-d...

yeah but you guys don't know how to dance.