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Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

economist.com

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Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#201

Post by defrost »

aposticknit wrote: post #199
bane wrote: post #133

There are quite a few comments here about "you need money to raise kids". There are similar statements made about housing size, cost, etc. and those end up on "but you don't need 8,000 sq ft to live!" These are, frankly IMHO, bizarre arguments that seem conditioned on socio-commercial training along the lines of "you need a diamond to propose!". Absolutely none of these are true: - People had sex and stable relations…

>You, strictly speaking, don't need any amount of square footage to live I'd argue that you do, considering it's -4 to -22F outside for half of the year, and historically have gone as low as -58F

I disagree.

Not only do we not see those tempretures here, we stopped using Farenheit before I was born and the locals lived happily for several tens of thousands of years semi nomadically with minimal shelter requirements.

You might have missed the global part of the discussion topic and of the HN forum.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#202

Post by aposticknit »

defrost wrote: post #201
aposticknit wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You, strictly speaking, don't need any amount of square footage to live I'd argue that you do, considering it's -4 to -22F outside for half of the year, and historically have gone as low as -58F

I disagree. Not only do we not see those tempretures here, we stopped using Farenheit before I was born and the locals lived happily for several tens of thousands of years semi nomadically with minimal shelter requirements. You might have missed the global part of the discussion topic and of the HN forum.

>You might have missed the global part of the discussion topic and of the HN forum.

Indeed, because it's a global discussion it's important to point out that the point is not globally applicable, because there are lots of areas where people indeed do need shelter to survive. Just because it's possible in some downtown with favorable external conditions doesen't make it very viable generally

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#203

Post by isolli »

I can't access the article, but how much of the collapse is due to the pandemic and its consequences?

I remember visiting a maternity in Berlin, where they had a chart showing births by year in that hospital since its inception. I was surprised to see that there had been a stronger decline in births after the fall of the wall in 1989 than during or after the second world war. I would not be surprised to see a similar decline in the past few years.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#204

Post by hollerith »

dbgev wrote: post #84

Consider Victorian era Britain, when the average person is much poorer, the air is heavily polluted with coal use, and the medical care is almost non-existant by modern standards. Fertility rate is about 5-6. Then it dropped to around 3 over 100 years and has been on a steady downward trajectory ever since. This pattern is broadly replicated everywhere that industrializes. Whatever the cause, it's not due to wealth p…

On a farm, children contribute to economic production; in a city, they are just expensive furniture.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#205

Post by prmoustache »

defrost wrote: post #196
prmoustache wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I blame stress and netflix/vod binge watching more than any chemical. Go in some place where people live more outside, typically a city with warm climate close to the beach and you will see people spending less time in front of a screen, fucking all the tine and having lots of kids while being generally exposed to the same chemicals That is my experience having moved in different parts of europe. You have to take int…

In one of the world's sunniest and most remote cities, next to a gorgeous coastline with fabulous beaches, world class surf and a very outdoor culture . . . > The total fertility rate in Greater Perth dipped from 1.76 in 2018 to 1.66 in 2021, spot on the national average. https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/baby-d...

yeah but you guys don't know how to dance.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#206

Post by theshrike79 »

danbolt wrote: post #187
theshrike79 wrote: post #184

A conversation about fertility isn't complete without a link to The Idiocracy (2006) opening scene: https://youtu.be/sP2tUW0HDHA (length 4:39) It's surprisingly accurate, even if it's very exaggerated, because that's the premise of the movie. tl;dw "Smart/Rich" people put off having kids to the Perfect Time in their life and never end up having kids or maybe just the one. "Stupid/Poor" people just keep having kids al…

Does that mean that the smartest and richest people of the past all died out, and we’re the descendants of yesteryear’s dumb-dumbs?

In the world of the movie, yes. People are watering plants with Mt Dew (or something) because it tastes good to them and don't know why their crops keep dying.

In the story a regular average joe from our time ends up in the future and is hailed as a genius just because he has basic level knowledge of stuff =)

Fun fact: the set designer wanted to have everyone wear some stupid shoes that nobody would ever actually wear in public and they picked a small up-coming company making pressed plastic shoes. The company was Crocs.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#207

Post by Eddy_Viscosity2 »

I realize this is from 'the economist' so that means they would of course be thinking about the economy, but it reminded me of those parody news headlines like "Mega-Asteroid to utterly destroy all of Earth, what this means for your 401-k"

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#208

Post by incomingpain »

throwaway29291 wrote: post #5

Perhaps, instead, we can see this as a good thing and plan a graceful way back to a more sustainable population over the course of a century. Just yesterday yet another in a long line of reports talked about how humanity has not just bent but likely broken many of the Earth's ecological boundaries that humans and non-humans alike depend upon. We've known this for decades -- mountains upon mountains of studies in ecol…

>Perhaps, instead, we can see this as a good thing and plan a graceful way back to a more sustainable population over the course of a century.

I love the optimism but it's difficult to see this as a positive.

Lets consider china. For decades they had a 1 child policy and according to their own numbers even worse problem killing their daughters. "sex selective abortions" then most believe.

China has a huge proportion of incel men who probably at no fault of their own cannot find a wife. They blame themselves and they become violent. Stemming from loneliness, and feeling of failure.

Nothing is new here. History has tons of these examples and 100% of the time the host country of the incels can't keep them at home. So they are sent abroad. Who is planning to take millions of incel men from china? Yikes... so it 100% of the time has led into an invasion. Imagine having 100 million men who want to be violent and you can invade a neighbour? That's what you do. Will it be different this time for the first time? I doubt it.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#209

Post by Clubber »

steve_taylor wrote: post #173
Clubber wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not. We can sustain many more, probably 10B+. The problem is everyone wants to live in the same few places. This is mainly driven by economics (workplaces). The WFH revolution will solve a lot of this if it can be sustained. Imagine if you can dig a well, get solar or any type of non-grid energy, and internet. There are no limits to where you can live, and most of the acreage in the US is cheap . You don't need…

Everyone living in megacities is better than urban sprawl, which clears forests and woodlands. More agriculture is required for more people, which means more land clearing. Renewable energy infrastructure needs energy and resources to build and needs to be replaced at EOL. Whether acreage is cheap or not only refers to money, not the environmental cost. And I haven't even said anything about the environmental costs o…

>which clears forests and woodlands.

Strictly speaking in the US, it's already cleared. The center of the country, the Great Plains, has almost no trees. Much of the US is pastureland, and you don't have to clearcut a place to live there.

>More agriculture is required for more people, which means more land clearing.

Which means more efficient agriculture, which we have an abundance of.

>Renewable energy infrastructure needs energy and resources to build and needs to be replaced at EOL.

I'm talking create your own grid living, not create a renewable grid.

>And I haven't even said anything about the environmental costs of manufacturing and shipping goods.

Manufacturing cost is already there, but you're right about shipping. We do have extensive railroads and a massive river system already.

>People won't go back to a "simpler" way of life because it's a backward step in lifestyle.

Some people won't and they can live in cities. Currently, nearly everyone has to live in a city for economic reasons (workplace). Once that stops being a thing, the people that want to move away from a city, and the crime, and the traffic, can do that.

>People don't want to sacrifice their lifestyle to do their very small part to help stave off a catastrophe.

With all the talk about climate change, I've seen very few people do any type of personal sacrifice to change it.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#210

Post by defrost »

prmoustache wrote: post #205
defrost wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In one of the world's sunniest and most remote cities, next to a gorgeous coastline with fabulous beaches, world class surf and a very outdoor culture . . . > The total fertility rate in Greater Perth dipped from 1.76 in 2018 to 1.66 in 2021, spot on the national average. https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/baby-d...

yeah but you guys don't know how to dance.

au contraire - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-MucVWo-Pw

( bit further north about the same coastline )

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