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Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

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Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#591

Post by sidcool »

Nextgrid wrote: post #561
TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, so his dream is gonna be delayed 5-10 years like most of his other major ones. It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?

Rocketry and self-driving are completely different domains of difficulty. Rocketry is a solved problem - the basic math works, we've done it before, the challenge now is building upon that knowledge, refining it and increasing efficiency, but the basics have been figured out and proven since we've launched the first satellites in orbit. SpaceX is successfully doing this. Unsupervised self-driving in an unconstrained…

Countries have failed at rocketry. It's not a solved problem.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#592

Post by topspin »

p_j_w wrote: post #571
travisporter wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teslas don't have these things called "eyes" that have a few millenia of "neural network training"

More importantly, Teslas are lacking a brain.

Indeed. The difference isn't the type of sensor. This oft repeated argument that Tesla's problems are down to a lack of LIDAR doesn't add up.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#593

Post by jliptzin »

highwaylights wrote: post #575
badpun wrote: post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Considering Tesla is on track to deliver 1.8M vehicles this year and the delivery growth trajectory it's been on, 4M is a good target goal for 2025, $45k ASP, 10% profit margin, 30 P/E . . . from that I get $180, so today's price is fair as a base case for 2025. That's a lot of assumptions. Why not wait 3 years till all those projections materialize, and buy it then for $180 (if the price is still there)? Currently…

This. It’s being priced as if the best possible case has already happened and can be taken for granted with 100% certainty, which if that’s the case, still means you’d be better somewhere else for the interim.

Not really, since you’re getting everything else the company is working on essentially for free at this price, including energy, FSD, the robot, the AI hardware, etc. Best case would be all of those things developing into their own revenue streams.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#594

Post by jliptzin »

ohgodplsno wrote: post #492
jliptzin wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD is a very small component of Tesla' current stock price. Some dumbasses are certainly buying Tesla because they think FSD is right around the corner, but dumbasses tend to not have a lot of money. For any Tesla price estimate, you've got to pick a number, how many million vehicles the company will ship in say 2025. Then pick an Average Selling Price, profit margin, and P/E multiple. Divide by 3 billion to get the…

>dumbasses tend to not have a lot of money. If wealth made people smart or gave them taste, we'd know. Dumbasses do tend to have a lot of cash, that's why they can happen to be dumbasses repeatedly.

Some dumbasses do, most don’t.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#595

Post by TylerE »

birdyrooster wrote: post #489
abletonlive wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I won't, because I don't think he's a faultless person. In fact, I think he's quite an asshole, but I can rationally separate who he is from his long list of accomplishments. Just because you want him to be a failure or a con-artist or whatever doesn't mean he actually is.

Elon's biggest accomplishment is how he optimizes for capital growth by any means necessary and is willing to throw norms to the wind and think very big. Elon never had to be a good people person to succeed here. It is why successful companies allow brilliant jerks... they are so brilliant it makes up for their asshole nature. Elon is this, as much as it pains me to say it.

Jerk is not a synonym for bigoted asshole. Increasingly the cruelty (to his employees mainly, but hardly exclusively) seems to the point.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#596

Post by rmbyrro »

otterley wrote: post #586
rmbyrro wrote: post #580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you use an ebike, wait until you go down by yourself and tell me what you think again. No cars needed. On a cyclist lane. Just you and your bike. If you use it for everyday commute, it's a matter of time. When it happens, it will be no fun.

I just fell a few weeks ago. Some ripped jeans and road rash but I'm ok. No doctor visit required. Low-speed accidents are far less injurious than the sort of high-speed ones you can get into with automobiles, and by far less fatal. According to WSDOT, there were 2 bicycle-related fatalities in Washington state in all of 2023, vs. 218 automobile-related fatalities. So a 100x difference. The data is there if you care…

If you care, you'd extrapolate the 2 fatalities to how many would be if bikes were adopted in mass as a means of transport in the Washington state (comparably to cars).

The number of bike trips will not increase by 100x only, certainly by orders of magnitude more than that.

Now multiply the 2 fatalities considering 10K, 100K or even more bike trips.

Ebikes can reach and sustain higher velocities much more easily than normal bikes as well. If they were to be adopted in mass, I'd expect crash severity to worsen in general and fatality rates/trip to go up.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#597

Post by sushid »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #291
sushid wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teslas have a problem with phantom braking (e.g. when there's a dark shadow it fails to detect that it's a shadow before going from ~70mph to ~55mph). Myself and countless friends I know have experienced it but that problem has yet to be solved.

A lot of cars with automated emergency braking have problems with phantom braking. This is an elephant in a room that hasn't been opened yet, but eventually will be.

Like others have said, this would be less of a problem if Tesla relied on LIDAR like others. Tesla uniquely has this problem that's unsolveable because it's relying on cameras only.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#598

Post by otterley »

rmbyrro wrote: post #596
otterley wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just fell a few weeks ago. Some ripped jeans and road rash but I'm ok. No doctor visit required. Low-speed accidents are far less injurious than the sort of high-speed ones you can get into with automobiles, and by far less fatal. According to WSDOT, there were 2 bicycle-related fatalities in Washington state in all of 2023, vs. 218 automobile-related fatalities. So a 100x difference. The data is there if you care…

If you care, you'd extrapolate the 2 fatalities to how many would be if bikes were adopted in mass as a means of transport in the Washington state (comparably to cars). The number of bike trips will not increase by 100x only, certainly by orders of magnitude more than that. Now multiply the 2 fatalities considering 10K, 100K or even more bike trips. Ebikes can reach and sustain higher velocities much more easily than…

OK, let's take a look at traffic fatalities in Denmark (where bicycles are the primary means of transport in most cities). 25 bicycle fatalities, compared to 64 auto fatalities. It's a much closer margin, but bicycles still win out. The statistics are similar in The Netherlands, where bicycles are equally popular.

Sources:

https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/transport/trafikulykke...

https://swov.nl/en/fact-sheet/road-deaths-netherlands

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#599

Post by kbos87 »

bombolo wrote: post #485
kbos87 wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I drive a Tesla day to day (with the latest FSD Beta) - yes, phantom breaking was real - but it's been almost completely remedied for the past few months in my opinion - and I'd be shocked if other automakers (as was mentioned above also have these problems) are as quick to iterate based on feedback.

others don't use cameras :D

Autonomous driving companies are using LiDAR but almost every consumer passenger vehicle is relying on a vision based system, and they all have this problem. Look behind the windshield of every car you walk past :D

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#600

Post by 93po »

rurp wrote: post #200
TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elons point on cars being worth 5x as much with self driving shouldn’t be dismissed. If a car that costs $25,000 to manufacture all of a sudden can be driven 40-50 hours a week automatically, how much is that car now worth? So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation.

Elon doesn't actually believe that Tesla cars are about to quintuple in value now, any more than he did 7+ years ago when he first started saying it; that's just marketing BS. > So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation. Yes, and most Gamestop investors think the company is going to be the next Amazon. Buying a popular meme stock doesn't make their predictions right.

> Elon doesn't actually believe

What's your evidence of this?

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