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Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

jalopnik.com

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Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans in traffic are relatively easy to predict. They don’t just randomly brake for no reason.

I hear people talk about people brake checking all the time (whether they're the brake checkers or the person tailing). A buddy of mine was tailing a (non-Tesla) car a little too closely on his motorcycle and the driver deliberately brake-checked him and he wrecked. And that's just people deliberately driving erratically, never mind the people who are responding to debris, animals, people, etc darting into the road.

Fault of your friend for not keeping a safe distance.

If both drivers only had basic insurance covering damages that aren't your fault, he got nothing and the other driver got paid for having his car damaged by a reckless driver that smashed into his car.

How does your friend even know it was without reason? Maybe a kitten or a squirrel crossed the road.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if that reasoning were true, the valuation for Tesla doesn’t make much sense, given they’re not remotely close to a self-driving car in the way that the average customer would understand it. They’re not delayed by a few years. The problem is intractable , unless you can limit the journey to a controlled scope. I drive over multiple pathways and grassy lanes a week that aren’t mapped and have no markings. A self-…

FSD is a very small component of Tesla' current stock price. Some dumbasses are certainly buying Tesla because they think FSD is right around the corner, but dumbasses tend to not have a lot of money. For any Tesla price estimate, you've got to pick a number, how many million vehicles the company will ship in say 2025. Then pick an Average Selling Price, profit margin, and P/E multiple. Divide by 3 billion to get the…

>dumbasses tend to not have a lot of money.

If wealth made people smart or gave them taste, we'd know. Dumbasses do tend to have a lot of cash, that's why they can happen to be dumbasses repeatedly.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#493
post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Number of actual accidents per million miles is the important stat though, and Tesla appears to be doing reasonably well on that front. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-beta-safety-crash-statis...

Sure, and VW also self-reported that their engines passed emissions testing and Ford self-reported that the Pinto was safe. Self-reported numbers by the manufacturer who has a direct financial interest to lie and who maliciously miscategorizes their L4 design intent system as a L2 design intent so that they do not need to do safety testing or submit reports to regulatory agencys is the opposite of believable.

Except this leak confirms them in this case hence the subject of this thread?

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#494
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't know that it's a fallacy, it's more that the question you ask is impossible to answer - it's impossible to have a number for how many crashes were prevented. But we do have a number for crashes caused by. So we work off of that - if Telsa want's to argue they are safer, I'd love for them to devise some way to prove it, but I can't see that happening.

Forbes did this with stats. They concluded autopilot was not causing accidents. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-te...

Surely you're familiar with this? https://youtu.be/3mnG_Gbxf_w?t=7

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#495
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon doesn't actually believe that Tesla cars are about to quintuple in value now, any more than he did 7+ years ago when he first started saying it; that's just marketing BS. > So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation. Yes, and most Gamestop investors think the company is going to be the next Amazon. Buying a popular meme stock doesn't make their predictions right.

And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, so his dream is gonna be delayed 5-10 years like most of his other major ones. It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?

[deleted]

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#496
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How expensive is LIDAR even? My xiaomi vacuum has LIDAR.

> My xiaomi vacuum has LIDAR. I don't. Yet, somehow I operate vehicles with little to no "phantom braking or unintended acceleration."

Teslas don't have these things called "eyes" that have a few millenia of "neural network training"

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When a manufacturer is selling millions of cars, I think it's better to judge their safety using statistics rather than some qualitative reasoning. Are Teslas measurably less safe than other cars? I.e. is the accident probability per km driven on a Tesla higher than on another car? I haven't seen any data suggesting that, but I'm happy to be corrected.

Since Tesla works really hard to hide who is responsible in case of an Autopilot crash, witholds and deletes information as well as deny any responsibility anyways, being just as good as a human driver isn't nearly enough. Additionally, there's no data because Tesla releases nothing except heavily doctored numbers meant to make them look good. (To Tesla, a crash means airbag deployed. Sorry, random person that got ra…

I'm not talking about Autopilot specifically because it may be difficult to judge. But surely there is some statistics based solely on the car model?

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#498
post #55

IMO Tesla would be better if they focused solely on making good EVs, rather than also trying to become the leader in self-driving. I get that they're trying to create a wider moat against their competitors, but if their self-driving software are found to have systematic failure modes in them as these internal docs seem to suggest, then that could very well do more harm to their reputation in the long run.

Elons point on cars being worth 5x as much with self driving shouldn’t be dismissed. If a car that costs $25,000 to manufacture all of a sudden can be driven 40-50 hours a week automatically, how much is that car now worth? So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation.

Five+ years ago when more of us believed that false promise that it was happening any day now it made more sense to have discussions about these kinds of hypothetical situations.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#499
post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not the burden of society to prove the dangers of the technology we purchase on behalf of the businesses that sell it. We recall consumer products for danger well below the numbers reported in the article above. A vehicle on the road should be held to an even higher standard.

Safety testing has proven that Teslas are incredibly safe - probably some of the safest cars on the road. Both in crash tests and accidents per mile driven. If someone is claiming that there is a safety issue despite the existing data, then yes, the burden of proof moves to them to validate their new claim.

Their claim IS the data.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone built a dozen companies, and like a third of them succeeded and made him one of (if not the) richest man in the world, I think you could say that that person "has an incredible track record of success" and I don't even like this guy, but this is just dishonest from you

What was successful after Tesla and SpaceX?

  > What was successful after Tesla and SpaceX?
Is Tesla and SpaceX not enough of a track record? Seriously, if that is not a track record of success, what is a track record of success by your measure?
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