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Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

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Re: Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

#81
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I'm similar. I don't mind the red states because they are relatively low tax and they don't really do anything legislatively, which is fine by me. A lot of GOP governors seem to have gone off the deep end at the state level lately; I'm not really sure why. DeSantis, for the most part, was your typical classic GOP governor in his first term. Florida is usually a red/blue state that leans a little red. They really…

> DeSantis, for the most part, was your typical classic GOP governor in his first term. Florida is usually a red/blue state that leans a little red. They really went off the rails his second term though. It's entirely cold political machinations. It's not ideology, it's not deeply-held beliefs, it's not a philosophy, it's not him (and others like him) doing what they think is best: it's strategy , aimed squarely at e…

> it's strategy, aimed squarely at electoral success.

Electoral success? I've been wondering if the DeSantis and Trump (and most of the Republican Party) have been chasing a local maxima as of late.

The republicans have been pursuing wedge politics, well, since, forever, but primarily since the 1960's when they Nixon's/Reagan's "hippy punching" found success. The problem is that it only works when you can keep the majority. Every wedge issue slices of x% of people, whether it's Librarians, Teachers, LGBTQ+ issues, etc. It works great until you've wedged off more who would vote against you than for you in a general election.

Then if you're at that local maxima, then yeah you're gonna cater to those fringe elements because those are the only votes that are left you can get. You've burnt the bridge with the rest of the electorate.

Re: Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

#82
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> DeSantis, for the most part, was your typical classic GOP governor in his first term. Florida is usually a red/blue state that leans a little red. They really went off the rails his second term though. It's entirely cold political machinations. It's not ideology, it's not deeply-held beliefs, it's not a philosophy, it's not him (and others like him) doing what they think is best: it's strategy , aimed squarely at e…

> it's strategy, aimed squarely at electoral success. Electoral success? I've been wondering if the DeSantis and Trump (and most of the Republican Party) have been chasing a local maxima as of late. The republicans have been pursuing wedge politics, well, since, forever, but primarily since the 1960's when they Nixon's/Reagan's "hippy punching" found success. The problem is that it only works when you can keep the ma…

> Then if you're at that local maxima, then yeah you're gonna cater to those fringe elements because those are the only votes that are left you can get. You've burnt the bridge with the rest of the electorate.

The way election strategy works can sometimes be unintuitive.

1) Not every demographic votes at the same rate—the "youth vote", which is a lot of people, famously, barely matters. "But they won it for Obama in '08!"; firstly, no, actually, he'd have lost a couple states without them but still would have won; secondly it still wasn't all that good; and thirdly it promptly plummeted again, there was no staying-power.

2) "Off-cycle" elections tend to be ignored by moderates and have low overall turnout.

3) Primaries are A Thing, and you have to win the nomination (determined almost exclusively by committed members of your own party) before you can even attempt the general.

4) The "true swing" segment of voters—the ones that both claim not to be committed partisans, and also don't consistently vote exactly as if they were committed partisans (that is, aren't lying or deceiving themselves when they say they're swing voters)—is itty-bitty, and they are practically all, in the language of political science, "low information voters" (and, yes, you can just treat that as a euphemism for "morons"). There's less to gain from directly courting them than one might think, and courting them doesn't necessarily involve, like... good policies. Or even being connected to reality. Even more than other aspects of campaigning, it's mostly about name recognition, good acting, and marketing.

What does all that mean? The name of the game is GOTV (Get Out The Vote). And suppressing same for your opponent. You don't ignore everything else, exactly, but the person who gets more of "their people" to the polls is very likely to be the one who wins, not the one who sways fence-sitters. Notably, achieving this doesn't necessarily require targeting even all of your own party.

> Every wedge issue slices of x% of people

Some are immensely effective. I listened to way too much of NPR's post-2016 "holy shit, how did this happen?" interview series with Trump voters, and, over and over, people said "yeah, he sucks, but I prayed on it and stopping baby-murder was more important". That single issue is a giant GOTV driver and excuse to do whatever the fuck else they want with their policies, for Republicans. I haven't looked into the data, but wouldn't be a bit surprised if their pro-life stance is a lot more effective, by those measures, than the Democrats' contrary stance.

> DeSantis and Trump (and most of the Republican Party) have been chasing a local maxima as of late

Trump's campaign was revolutionary. The way he built his platform was exactly like he'd walked into a rural diner, struck up political conversations, wrote down all the ideas he heard, then just said those things. This is, it should be noted, a lot different from the usual Republican platform (this is likely why they didn't bother to assemble an official party platform, as they usually do—they didn't want to codify his in any way, but also couldn't contradict it). The reason the normal platform can differ so very much from what their voters want, is because of how US elections are structured (the two-party system) which strongly tends to produce situations like that. Trump just said "yeah, fuck all that" and said exactly what Republicans wanted to hear.

The rest of the party is still trying to figure out what that means for future elections, and the future of the party. DeSantis' whole mess is part of that effort, I expect.

Re: Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

#83
post #8

Both a sensible business move and the right thing to do. If they could magically roll up the entirety of WDW and relocate it elsewhere I suspect they would.

At this point, they would be fools not to stash in a filing cabinet somewhere a plan for a WDW equivalent somewhere in one of several less hostile US states. It wouldn’t be the same, with all of WDW’s history, direct involvement of Walt and Roy Disney, weird systems (underground garbage vacuum service, etc). But America has a lot of unoccupied land, and most states would be happy to give Disney significant leeway in…

After watching all the sweetheart deals offered by states trying to court the last gigafactory, I can't imagine the lengths they would go for Disney.

Re: Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a republican sun belt state where the legislature’s politics have never matched my own (at least not as long as I’ve been able to vote), but until pretty recently, it was generally all mostly in the vein of smallish government, business friendly conservatism. Not necessarily my favorite, but not a dealbreaker. Now they’re tacking hard right on social issues, threatening to cripple our quite good public univ…

Similar situation (but not in the sun belt). Lived in this area all my life, always been a lot farther "left" on basically everything than the state's government, never been that big a deal aside from our taxes being way higher than they ought to be for how bad/absent government services are (which, to be fair, at least some poorly-governed red states have the good taste to also be low-tax—just not ours). Now? We're…

Thanks for the thoughtful response, no criticism inferred (and certainly no offense taken). I have daughters too and ultimately may not be able to stick it out either, but not sure where else I’d want to move to.

Re: Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are already plans for Texas. Same with Universal.

I wish the PNW would get some love, we have very little going in terms of Amusement parks (the biggest one is in Idaho, you've probably never heard of it). Eastern Oregon has plenty of land...I can dream anyways.

The issue with the PNW is similar to the issue with Florida. Climate Change is going to nuke both areas out of habitability in the next handful of decades. While sure FL has conservative loons running things and that's problematic in the short to medium term for Disney that'll pass. It'll be being on fire or under water that'll keep them away.

Re: Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it, Florida’s ground is porous and it’s not possible to keep water from going under any barriers you create.

What if we paved the earth? The entire earth!

https://alt.pavethe.earth

Re: Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish the PNW would get some love, we have very little going in terms of Amusement parks (the biggest one is in Idaho, you've probably never heard of it). Eastern Oregon has plenty of land...I can dream anyways.

The issue with the PNW is similar to the issue with Florida. Climate Change is going to nuke both areas out of habitability in the next handful of decades. While sure FL has conservative loons running things and that's problematic in the short to medium term for Disney that'll pass. It'll be being on fire or under water that'll keep them away.

I don't see how climate change is going to nuke the PNW. Our coasts are too high to be much affected (so we don't have issues with rising coast lines), while the heat makes summers more...normal for the rest of the country, the fact that we get rain 9 months out of the year should insulate us from the changes. Forest fire season does suck, but again, 9 months of rain a year means it isn't that long.

Perhaps we should all be buying in Alaska, however, given that it will soon be the next mild climate tropical destination :).

Re: Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with the PNW is similar to the issue with Florida. Climate Change is going to nuke both areas out of habitability in the next handful of decades. While sure FL has conservative loons running things and that's problematic in the short to medium term for Disney that'll pass. It'll be being on fire or under water that'll keep them away.

I don't see how climate change is going to nuke the PNW. Our coasts are too high to be much affected (so we don't have issues with rising coast lines), while the heat makes summers more...normal for the rest of the country, the fact that we get rain 9 months out of the year should insulate us from the changes. Forest fire season does suck, but again, 9 months of rain a year means it isn't that long. Perhaps we should…

Wildfires are expected to get more intense and longer as climate change goes on in the PNW. I don't think you're going to want an inferno to be a destination point. It's nothing against the PNW - it's a beautiful part of the country we definitely need to preserve but if you're looking at things in decades I don't think you'd want to invest considerably into a tourist destination there if you're Disney is all.

Re: Disney cancels plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida

#90
post #28
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone pointed out that lack of growth is treated as decline in our culture/economy. So the threat of climate change in Florida is that real estate prices will stop growing - that breaks a fundamental assumption - line goes up - and that drives a race to the exit. So far this has only happened in some localities, so we'll see. If my house is underwater fiscally, it may as well be underwater with the fishes.

I'll gladly buy your Miami property for a discount. My thesis is it's not going anywhere in the next 100 years and that the prices will only continue to rise.

Soon the insurance will cost more than the property.
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