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A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

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Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#91

Post by omnivore »

j-kidd wrote: post #74
jwallaceparker wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a Knicks fan visiting China right now. Jeremy Lin's game against the Lakers was the lead story on the sports program on television last night. He could catch on here.

I am a Nets fan for 12 years and hate the Knicks. Today I followed NYK vs MIN just because of Jeremy Lin. Game tied, 24 seconds left, and he got the ball in his hand. I could have became a Knicks fan if he made that layup. This is insane. Nets spent billions to build a new arena. Knicks got Jeremy Lin.

I'm a Jersey guy who was more sympathethic to the Nets too and I think I too might be a Lin convert to the Knicks.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#92

Post by jimmybot »

corin_ wrote: post #90
jimmybot wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a very important difference that you're missing. In the scam you're applying you're random machine over all possible results. In the sabermetrician example, the random machine is being applied across methodologies of picking prospects, ie bunch of different "moneyball" hobbyists trying out different stats and weights to rank players. The end result is the possibility of the discovery of a very good methodolog…

But it takes more than one result to tell whether the methodology is good or if it was just lucky - otherwise it's just a guy tossing a coin once and saying "see, I predicted heads!"

Agreed. And you can't even do that test with a scam, which was my point.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#93

Post by kevinkemp »

mousa wrote: post #33
zheng wrote: post #5

What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.

NBA media and fans are much much more resistant to empirical stuff than baseball. I think it's because the appeal of the game is more about emotions and hype than baseball. There's this feeling that things can't be captured in the numbers, but what they use instead is so inferior for judging players. I mean the Knicks acquired Carmelo Anthony at the cost of all the efficient players on the team. All of the stats guys…

Exactly. The key difference is how advanced the statistics that matter are in the different sports. Only very advanced stats will really tell the story in basketball whereas it is much easier to see in baseball with just baseline stats. Most laymen take that to mean that watching games is the only way to tell when, in reality, they just need to get the right stats and formulas.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#94

Post by ssharp »

jberryman wrote: post #87
ssharp wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I highly doubt any team passed over him because of his ethnicity. That's insanely counter-productive and something that doesn't happen in modern sports, especially the NBA. Yao Ming was a #1 draft pick. The NBA knows it's strong position in China.

I don't know. That one Chinese player was highly sought after in the last decade in the NBA does not convince me that unconscious racial bias hasn't played a role here, not that I think malice has either. It seems obvious that Lin's Chinese descent is at least still a novelty in the NBA

I still have a very hard time chalking it up to racial bias, whether conscious or unconscious.

If the NBA is lacking in Chinese players, I'd amount it to:

1. Chinese players' talents aren't good enough, or they simply don't fit into the NBA style of play

2. NBA teams are not good at transcribing their play to the NBA level

Lin is an American, however, and has been playing US-style basketball his whole life.

Lin's had a streak of statistically good games, and a much larger sample of below average play off the bench. I haven't watched his games and I don't know how good he is on defense, or how he looks in operating an offense. But even if he turns out to be a really great NBA player, it's not like he was the first professional athlete to be overlooked/underrated. John Starks, former Knick, who played a big role in the Knicks' success in the 90's was undrafted, as was Ben Wallace, a premier defender for the championship Pistons in the 2000's.

The NFL also has a lot of once underrated talent. The Super Bowl losing Patriots have future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady, who has been an elite quarterback for about a decade now was the 199th player picked in his draft class. And one of his prime targets the past few years has been undrafted Wes Welker. Kurt Warner was undrafted, sign as a free agent, cut during the preseason and had to play several years in the Arena League before becoming a Super Bowl MVP and superstar quarterback.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#95

Post by Volpe »

ssharp wrote: post #94
jberryman wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. That one Chinese player was highly sought after in the last decade in the NBA does not convince me that unconscious racial bias hasn't played a role here, not that I think malice has either. It seems obvious that Lin's Chinese descent is at least still a novelty in the NBA

I still have a very hard time chalking it up to racial bias, whether conscious or unconscious. If the NBA is lacking in Chinese players, I'd amount it to: 1. Chinese players' talents aren't good enough, or they simply don't fit into the NBA style of play 2. NBA teams are not good at transcribing their play to the NBA level Lin is an American, however, and has been playing US-style basketball his whole life. Lin's had…

What's the difference between "US-style" basketball and "other" style? (i.e "chinese-style"?)

Doesn't everyone play the same game/style?

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#96

Post by gmichnikov »

Volpe wrote: post #95
ssharp wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still have a very hard time chalking it up to racial bias, whether conscious or unconscious. If the NBA is lacking in Chinese players, I'd amount it to: 1. Chinese players' talents aren't good enough, or they simply don't fit into the NBA style of play 2. NBA teams are not good at transcribing their play to the NBA level Lin is an American, however, and has been playing US-style basketball his whole life. Lin's had…

What's the difference between "US-style" basketball and "other" style? (i.e "chinese-style"?) Doesn't everyone play the same game/style?

No. See http://members.shaw.ca/jazzace/ace/hoop/rulediff.html for a variety of rule differences. See http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f6/differences-between-nba-eur... for some more thoughts.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#97

Post by Volpe »

gmichnikov wrote: post #96
Volpe wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the difference between "US-style" basketball and "other" style? (i.e "chinese-style"?) Doesn't everyone play the same game/style?

No. See http://members.shaw.ca/jazzace/ace/hoop/rulediff.html for a variety of rule differences. See http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f6/differences-between-nba-eur... for some more thoughts.

Specifically "chinese-style"... Chinese are mad about NBA, do they really play different rules?

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#98

Post by bgaluszka »

bretthopper wrote: post #14

Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity": - He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted. - He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up. - He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart. - The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony) - The Knicks have now won 4 straight ga…

> The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony)

... and you could say Baron Davis, their point guard that JL is in place of.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#99

Post by ssharp »

Volpe wrote: post #97
gmichnikov wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. See http://members.shaw.ca/jazzace/ace/hoop/rulediff.html for a variety of rule differences. See http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f6/differences-between-nba-eur... for some more thoughts.

Specifically "chinese-style"... Chinese are mad about NBA, do they really play different rules?

Maybe U.S.-style wasn't the correct term, but since the NBA is regarded as the top basketball league in the country, it's what most people look up to.

The NBA tends to run a very isolation-oriented offense. This means that a point guard usually brings the ball to half-court, and if the PG is the main iso guy, he keeps the ball, or he dumps the ball to the main iso guy. The rest of the offense then spreads out so that iso guy is 1-on-1 with the defender. He'll usually play 1-on-1 (taking a shot or driving to the basket if he can) until there is 10 or so seconds left, and then the offense will start really moving.

Being from Cleveland, we saw this in the extreme when Lebron James played for the Cavs. We nicknamed this the "Lebronfense", because the entire offense (especially in the playoffs) consisted of Lebron holding the ball for 15 seconds and then making a move. This generally doesn't happen as much in other countries and leagues as it does in the NBA. Generally, guards and SF's who score a lot in the NBA are iso-specialists.

I'm not well versed enough in basketball strategy, so I'm not sure why this happens. It likely has to do with maximizing a superstar's athletic ability and overall impact on the game, but that's just a guess.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#100

Post by bps4484 »

ssharp wrote: post #85
capkutay wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention, he led our basketball team to the state championship in high school, but got little to no recognition from college scouts. I would guess that most state championship winning starting point guards in high school would at least get 1 scholarship offer. Jeremy Lin got none. It just makes his success more shocking/amazing at this point.

This isn't necessarily true (most state championship winning starting point guards getting scholarships). How big was his high school? Upper division programs (large schools) get significantly more attention than smaller schools.

From his wikipedia, "In his senior year in 2005–2006, Lin captained Palo Alto High School to a 32–1 record and upset nationally ranked Mater Dei, 51–47, for the California Interscholastic Federation (CIF) Division II state title." I assume division 2 is the second highest division in california. Given that, and he was the main player on that team, it is SHOCKING he didn't have multiple scholarship offers from major division 1 college teams.
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