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A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

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Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#41

Post by corin_ »

jimmybot wrote: post #18
corin_ wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of that classic scam of sending out sports (or anything else) predictions to a huge mailing list, and basically AB testing in such a way that after a little time there are at least x% who think your success rate is incredible.

How is this anywhere the same? In a scam, you don't have any way of making any future correct predictions--it's just random. This analyst has a reasoned system that can be tested against past players and against future prospects. Sure, there's going to be someone out there that picks Jeremy Lin. But the trick is, can you correctly identify players who are already known to be good based on their college stats, make th…

In the scam one person is making loads of predictions knowing that some will pay off. In this story, lots of people are making predictions and again, the chances are some of them will be right. Read the comment I replied to, his point was exactly the same as the scam's logic, which is basically that if enough monkeys spend enough time with typewriters... etc.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#42

Post by Rajiv_N »

bilbo0s wrote: post #32

Hmm... I looked into his stats because I don't pay much attention to the Knicks. At any rate I think Jeremy Lin is definitely going to have a good deal of trouble succeeding long term. There are a number of concerns there, but by far the biggest is TOs. In each game he's played, he has had the most TOs of any player. You can coach that away but one of two things will happen, his FGs will go up and his ASSTs will go d…

I think you are over-analyzing. Like others have said in this thread, TO's are expected from PG's. While, these stats need to be considered, you should also consider the timing of these turnovers. If his team is up 15 with 1 minute to go and he turns the ball over because he was trying to test a play etc... that TO should not be given the same weight as the others.

I think the most important stat is scoring efficiency (or FG percentage). Against the Lakers yesterday, he was at 56.5% for the game (scoring 38 points). That is commendable given that it is against the Lakers.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#43

Post by kasraeg »

zheng wrote: post #5

What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.

it is true stats don't lie. but there is no replacement for the human judgment of personality and dedication. if it was all about stats, allen iverson would have lead the 76ers to multiple championships. THAT'S the importance of personality! thats the importance of showing up for practice. :)

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#44

Post by capkutay »

bretthopper wrote: post #14

Just some background for those not familiar with "Lin-sanity": - He was a great college player at Harvard but wasn't drafted. - He was cut by 2 NBA teams before the Knicks picked him up. - He was probably the 4th point guard on the Knicks depth chart. - The Knicks have been terrible this year and are currently without their 2 best players (Amare Stoudamire and Carmello Anthony) - The Knicks have now won 4 straight ga…

Not to mention, he led our basketball team to the state championship in high school, but got little to no recognition from college scouts. I would guess that most state championship winning starting point guards in high school would at least get 1 scholarship offer. Jeremy Lin got none. It just makes his success more shocking/amazing at this point.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#45

Post by look_lookatme »

zheng wrote: post #5

What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.

That's a helluva a catch.

At the core, stats tell a story of what a player has done in the past. Projections predict what a player might do based on what comparable players have done in the past. Statistics don't tell the future. They are just one tool of the scouting process.

Plus the models are always evolving. What was considered an indicator of talent 20 years ago might be inferior to the indicator 10 years ago that is actually inferior to what is in vogue today.

Statistics don't lie, but what story do you think they actually tell?

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#47

Post by paulschreiber »

fluorescentLAMP wrote: post #2

I'm involved in the startup scene for soccer "moneyball" metric development. If anyone has any interest, contact me.

A friend of mine is interested in stats for dodgeball. (yes, really!) let me know if you're interested and i'll connect you.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#48

Post by brildum »

mousa wrote: post #33
zheng wrote: post #5

What surprises me most about this story isn't that it happened, but that people still are surprised it works. A data-driven approach will always be better than picking people by how good they "look", etc. Human scouts are biased, make mistakes, and miss plays. Statistics don't lie. The one catch is of course how you analyze those statistics makes all the difference.

NBA media and fans are much much more resistant to empirical stuff than baseball. I think it's because the appeal of the game is more about emotions and hype than baseball. There's this feeling that things can't be captured in the numbers, but what they use instead is so inferior for judging players. I mean the Knicks acquired Carmelo Anthony at the cost of all the efficient players on the team. All of the stats guys…

Baseball is easier to predict from statistics when compared to most other sports. Most plays in baseball occur in isolation (relatively).

For example: pitcher vs. batter -- each pitch is essentially a new, repeatable experiment.

In basketball, I would guess that there are very few repeatable experiments. (Different players, strategies, locations, etc). It is a much more fluid game and therefore determining an indicator of success is much more difficult.

Re: A "Moneyball" statician predicted Jeremy Lin's success 2 years ago

#50

Post by steve8918 »

noelwelsh wrote: post #36

I love Jeremy Lin as a player and I really hope he succeeds. However, it must be said: Four games does not a statistically significant sample make. Read the NBA Playbook breakdown of his game: http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/02/08/a-look-at-jeremy-lin/ In summary, he isn't good going left or shooting from distance. So far he hasn't played an elite defensive team. The true test will come if he can sustain his performance…

So what if he hasn't played against an elite defensive team. That is irrelevant to determine whether or not he will succeed. How many players would do well against an elite defense team? Probably not a lot, otherwise they wouldn't be an elite defensive team.

No one is saying that he's going to be another Stockton, Nash, Wade (although Magic Johnson did say that Lin reminded him of Stockton and Nash), and he doesn't need to be in order to succeed. If he can keep the caliber of his game up to NBA standards, he can accomplish what he wanted, which is to play in the NBA, and that's all that matters. His performance over the past 4 games is saying pretty strongly that he can play at this level.

Remember, he just played against over 10% of the league already and has been the best player on the court. If the Knicks elite players can get their act together, then Lin only needs to contribute positively in order to maintain a strong career.

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