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Why are lithium prices collapsing?

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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#451

Post by grogenaut »

Robotbeat wrote: post #278
api wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's sublimated class resentment. People resent things that are perceived as coming down upon them from a coastal rich Ivy League educated elite that is perceived as holding them in contempt. It all just sounds like rich people in private jets flying around telling them to use less energy to save the planet. There is of course too much inequality, but it's not because of EVs or phasing out gas stoves.

That’s ironic because gas stoves are actually only the majority in California and places around New York, ie literally the coastal elite.

that's a bold claim cotton, care to back it up with some actual data? I've lived in several places across the country, they seemed to all have gas an eletric in a mix.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#452

Post by opportune »

xbmcuser wrote: post #2

The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…

How so? The people physically purchasing commodities are doing so by determining how worth it is to them at the current (or future) price, same with sellers. Speculators are almost never actually taking delivery, but they are providing liquidity for buyers and sellers by participating in transactions as counterparties. The final price paid by the ultimate physical buyers is based on their own value judgment of quantity demanded per price, and the final price paid to physical sellers is based on that same price (of course, either could be willingly using futures instead of spot prices to reduce risk).

Buyers and sellers could trade directly among themselves if they wished, and if the commodity markets were divorced from reality (either unable to deliver on futures contracts or having futures settled at different prices than their contracts stipulate) nobody would use them. Because speculators don’t take delivery, how they react to news and other events is only assisting in price discovery between the time a future is issued and settled, because at settlement time there is no immediate uncertainty regarding supply and demand in the spot market.

I think you might be making a common mistake in your comment of equating news for popular consumption with actual news that traders, buyers, and sellers care about (usually very quantitative and well guarded data with nuances that an article for public consumption will never account for). Articles for popular consumption are not moving markets very much, especially in commodities where public involvement is low (vs stocks) and consequently public sentiment has little effect.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#453

Post by AzzieElbab »

13of40 wrote: post #260
AzzieElbab wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a former citizen of the USSR, I have to object to linking environmental issues to private property. The Soviets did all kinds of tremendously bad things ranking, from geo-transformation to placing the heavy industry in the middle of cities. From what I read about North Korea, the entire country is ruined by various extraction and industrial projects.

Not saying you're wrong, but I'd like to share my own take, which is that one of the clearest, bluest skies I've ever seen was over North Korea. Because they sucked at doing "industry" compared to the South Koreans. In the 90s in South Korea, the rivers ran black and every corner you turned had its own putrid chemical smell from whatever fly-by-night entrepraneur had found a way to make a buck there. But that's an an…

Out of curiosity, are you from NK? I am fascinated with that country. Wrt South Korea, Koreans I spoke to only complain about the environment when winds blow from China.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#454

Post by tmtvl »

meristohm wrote: post #240
jdkoeck wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From wikipedia: « In 2010, Chile was the first nation in South America to win membership in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, an organization restricted to the world's richest countries » Victims of neoliberalism you say?

I would say the USA (where I grew up and still live, which doesn't make me a expert, mind- these are mostly just feelings) is also a victim of neoliberalism[0], and that people who revere President Reagan (USA) and Prime Minister Thatcher (UK) are generally selfish and inconsiderate of (what I see as) the importance of other life on earth whether or not we can directly benefit from it. [0] https://www.wikipedia.org/w…

Speaking of Maggie...

> What we are now doing to the world... is new in the experience of the Earth. It is mankind and his activities that are changing the environment of our planet in damaging and dangerous ways. The result is that change in future is likely to be more fundamental and more widespread than anything we have known hitherto. Change to the sea around us, change to the atmosphere above, leading in turn to change in the world's climate, which could alter the way we live in the most fundamental way of all.

> The environmental challenge that confronts the whole world demands an equivalent response from the whole world. Every country will be affected and no one can opt out. Those countries who are industrialised must contribute more to help those who are not.

-The Baroness Thatcher

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#455

Post by makeitdouble »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #367
13of40 wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not saying you're wrong, but I'd like to share my own take, which is that one of the clearest, bluest skies I've ever seen was over North Korea. Because they sucked at doing "industry" compared to the South Koreans. In the 90s in South Korea, the rivers ran black and every corner you turned had its own putrid chemical smell from whatever fly-by-night entrepraneur had found a way to make a buck there. But that's an an…

Do blue skies matter when you are blind from malnutrition?

When pointing to another country in a discussion about policies, the point is never "we should be absolutely 100% like them in every single ways". There will never be a path for a country A to absolutely follow country B's path anyway.

In that respect, unless you believe over polluting the environment is an absolute necessity to avoid malnutrition, pointing at NK's economic policy issues in this discussion doesn't help us much.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#456

Post by socceroos »

newswasboring wrote: post #43
vasco wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's nothing to do with morality or any justification, it's just what it is. Since there's an instrument to gauge supply and demand, that instrument can also be wanted, so there can be supply and demand of the thing that measures supply and demand. You can also do "bad" things on first order by hoarding the items themselves.

There is more to economics than supply and demand. This unnecessary gambling has too many negative externality and IMO no positive effects other than making some people some money with no work.

This sounds like a principled take. Can you explain the under-girding principles that drive you to hold this view?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#457

Post by defrost »

Animats wrote: post #329
defrost wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

aka: https://archive.is/k5Hjd Not a great article (from a minerals and resources perspective). Two specific factors; recent mine expansion at sites that dig in the dirt and produce concentrates _and_ recent and near future expansion of processing locations that take concentrates and refine to ship usable lithium. Eg: Minesite in Western Australia currently ships concentrates to Malaysia and will soon ship also Texas.

Shipping concentrates is pretty standard in mining low-grade resources. Near the mine, there's usually some kind of plant to extract the good stuff and discard the dirt. Otherwise, there's a huge amount of wasted effort shipping dirt and rocks around, and dumping them someplace. What's shipped out usually needs more processing. What's left behind is usually the big environmental headache with mining.

Lithium traditionally has seen refinment of concentrates take place some distance from the primary hole in the ground; Western Australia is soon opening refinement facilities "not far" (couple of hundred km) from the primary mine (Greenbushes).

Generally digging hole -> concentrate (in this case (Lithium) the concentrate is Spodumene) is a largely mechanical process - crushing, grinding, screening, centrifuge, seperation, etc and what's left behind is overburden and not of interest tailings - this is "regular mining problems" and these are not huge in todays regulated environment, post mining rehab is required and ideally pre mine eco systems come back.

Refinement of concentrates, particulalry of Rare Earths is generally where nasty chemicals come into play which requires tight processing and strong oversight to keep "clean" .. acids at end of re-re-re-use need to be nuetralised and processing areas need strong under-pan barriers to prevent spills leaching down to groundwater, tailings dams need to be strong, monitored, and regularly dealt with.

These are all things which are "all right" in theory and good practice .. but do require strong oversight and an educated third party invested public keep a close eye on transparent operations.

Bad things can happen otherwise.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#458

Post by wkat4242 »

AzzieElbab wrote: post #202
botanical wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A legacy of the Pinochet era in Chile is the privatisation of minerals and water, which gives companies ownership of those resources in an area. While mining operations squeeze this already dry region even drier, communities lose their access to potable water, leaving them relying on tankers to deliver it. “We used to have a river before that now doesn’t exist. There isn’t a drop of water,” says Rivera. “And not on…

As a former citizen of the USSR, I have to object to linking environmental issues to private property. The Soviets did all kinds of tremendously bad things ranking, from geo-transformation to placing the heavy industry in the middle of cities. From what I read about North Korea, the entire country is ruined by various extraction and industrial projects.

That's true. The aral sea was even infamous here in Europe. Of course it's now completely gone leaving silted wasteland in its place :'(

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#459

Post by refurb »

uoaei wrote: post #216
refurb wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thankfully the laws says innocent until proven guilty. Apparently the law is “absurd”

The legal system doesn't "believe" anything. Unless you are a court of law, you aren't bound by the rules governing one.

The legal system "presumes" things.

Based on your comment, the legal presumptions of innocence is "absurd".

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#460

Post by wkat4242 »

aintgonnatakeit wrote: post #113
api wrote: post #111

The space is saturated with anti-EV FUD.

Same thing happens with the gas stove threads. I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons.

The amount of gas we burn for cooking is really minimal compared to other uses which are much more easily replaced.

And yes most people here use it for cooking and hot water only. I spend like a tenner on gas each month.

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