Why are lithium prices collapsing? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#181

Post by GolfPopper » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:03 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #129

GolfPopper wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course there's a difference. It's based on information asymmetry, i.e. the 'greater fool' theory. When the information asymmetry is deliberately created, that's being done in bad faith, and is the sort of thing we call fraud when done on an individual level. It often feels like a great deal of our corporate and financial machinery are designed around diffusing actions that would be criminal, or reprehensible if do…

> When the information asymmetry is deliberately created, that's being done in bad faith, and is the sort of thing we call fraud when done on an individual level. What information asymmetry? The previous comments referred to speculators betting on price movements. Deliberately creating fraudulent information asymmetry would be altering data in industry reports and publishing false manufacture/consumption data. Which,…

By, for example, deliberately delaying delivery while owning a significant segment of the available commodity, such as Goldman Sachs did with aluminum a decade ago. [1], while simultaneously selling derivatives based on the very commodities they were manipulating. To the best of my knowledge, there were no consequences - if anyone knows of a financial penalty or change to law or regulations, please share!

1. https://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2...

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#182

Post by kranke155 » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:04 PM UTC

botanical wrote: post #151

api wrote: post #111

The space is saturated with anti-EV FUD.

> A legacy of the Pinochet era in Chile is the privatisation of minerals and water, which gives companies ownership of those resources in an area. While mining operations squeeze this already dry region even drier, communities lose their access to potable water, leaving them relying on tankers to deliver it. “We used to have a river before that now doesn’t exist. There isn’t a drop of water,” says Rivera. “And not on…

Chile has just nationalised lithium I believe

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#183

Post by mharig » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:04 PM UTC

What the article does not mention: in June a new chinese emission standard for vehicles, that can hardly be met by combustion engines, will hit. That may drive up the Lithium demand.

And in 23Q4 or 24Q1 CATL will sell its 500 Wh/kg batteries. Although I couldn't find much about the chemistry of the new cells, that may cut the Lithium demand in half. But not very fast, I guess.

(All dates/statements IIRC.)

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#184

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:05 PM UTC

quote wrote: post #84

Rufbdbskrufb473 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just listed a bunch scary sounding financial buzz words, but I doubt that a thorough analysis of them would support your conclusion. In fact, many have the opposite effect and result in more efficient price discovery. Take naked shorting for example. Without shorting, it would be far more difficult for an equity research firm to be incentivized to look into fraudulent stocks, as was widespread with Chinese compan…

Isn’t that argument somewhat strange or dishonest? To paraphrase you: I‘d rather have naked shorting and the associated manipulation and problems with it than better price discovery for stockholders. In your example, the stockholder isn’t protected either, only an equity firm derives profit from this information. In a more ideal world the stockholders themselves would do this due diligence, which is something that al…

> could well imagine allowing fully hedged shorting and outlawing naked shorting

Many markets (e.g. Australia and Switzerland) do this. We have the comparative data to show it doesn’t do anything good while increasing volatility.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#185

Post by binkHN » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:05 PM UTC

TL;DR: China stopped subsiding this and more mines are coming online.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#186

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:06 PM UTC

layer8 wrote: post #114

lotsofpulp wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My plumber/electrician/doctor is insider trading?

What does your plumber/electrician/doctor know that other plumbers/electricians/doctors don’t know and that is the secret of their success?

[deleted]

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#187

Post by ericmay » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:06 PM UTC

kibwen wrote: post #156

ericmay wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet some of it also like, ok you’re banning gas stoves that I like cooking on but everybody owning a Ford F-850 and private jets are still cool (from an environmental perspective)? Seems like a spending a few bucks to save a few pennys kind of scenario. The health argument is fair but seems like it shouldn’t be a mandatory requirement so much as a safety warning (based on my current understanding). The fact that we…

If it's a "distraction", it's because reactionaries are making it one. I don't have a private jet or an F-10,000 (I don't even own a car), and I can see that the pro-gas crowd hasn't considered how good induction cooktops and heat pumps have gotten, and how rapidly they're still improving. The writing is on the wall, there's no future for piping gas to residences, so if you're a government you might as well prepare t…

The problem here is that you are falling prey to the “it’s easier to destroy things than build them” phenomena.

You have to convince voters that they should support banning gas stoves and such. (Build things)

I don’t have to convince anyone that while the government is “taking away their stoves” so-called billionaires fly around in private jets and own dozens of cars. (Destroy things)

It’s just not effective. I want to see effective solutions, not ideological ones. Especially ideological ones that push people away from stated goals.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#188

Post by FpUser » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:06 PM UTC

wolfram74 wrote: post #135

ericmay wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet some of it also like, ok you’re banning gas stoves that I like cooking on but everybody owning a Ford F-850 and private jets are still cool (from an environmental perspective)? Seems like a spending a few bucks to save a few pennys kind of scenario. The health argument is fair but seems like it shouldn’t be a mandatory requirement so much as a safety warning (based on my current understanding). The fact that we…

This could be interpreted as saying unless you fix everything at once, any incremental change should be seen as disingenuous and merely a distraction. Would you like to rephrase?

When fixing one gives you 0.01% and fixing the other - 99.99% you go for a second one to achieve any sizeable gains. Doing it the other way is only good for fooling people to gain some points in one's political career.

And you do not even have to fix second one completely to see positive results so it is not fixing everything at once.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#189

Post by kranke155 » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:07 PM UTC

whitemary wrote: post #115

elif wrote: post #109

Because I see so much "conflict metals" discussion when lithium is discussed, I would like to contribute that less than 3% of global lithium production takes place on small artisanal mines, in which place human rights abuse may occur. Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations with large scale mines complying with multiple international regulation requirements.

> Human rights abuse That's a convenient way to dismiss ruthless exploitation of 3rd world populations, nations, and the natural environment. And if you don't consider the police violence against the indigenous populations of Bolivia following their democratic elections then what are your qualifications exactly? "Lithium mining" is not the problem, of course, but the political interventions of Lithium interests has r…

All large scale economic activity in developing countries like this is often accompanied with human rights and democracy violations.

This is a false choice really. It’s not lithium that’s causing this but the broken political system. I’m half Brazilian and just the other day I heard a mining dam break that led to a mass cancer in surrounding populations. This was Vale one of the largest companies in Brazil.

It doesn’t matter what’s being used, virtually everything that comes from developing countries causes gigantic crimes that are unimaginable to first world.

You’re selecting one specific product but it’s not logical to do so. They all cause this. And what’s the other option? Not buying products from developing countries?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#190

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sun, Apr 30, 2023, 2:07 PM UTC

quote wrote: post #86

RandomLensman wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the issue with a dark pool, for example? They are generally not designed for price discovery anyway.

But wouldn’t it be better if the volume at least is shown on open exchanges?

> wouldn’t it be better if the volume at least is shown on open exchanges?

Empirically, no. Large blocks of stock don’t have a liquid market. Forcing them into the open means chopping it into tiny pieces while using derivatives to hedge, for the sophisticated, and getting hosed, for the unsophisticated.