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Why are lithium prices collapsing?

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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#131

Post by refurb »

throwawaaarrgh wrote: post #117
elif wrote: post #109

Because I see so much "conflict metals" discussion when lithium is discussed, I would like to contribute that less than 3% of global lithium production takes place on small artisanal mines, in which place human rights abuse may occur. Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations with large scale mines complying with multiple international regulation requirements.

Because we all know international corporations never violate human rights?

That's kind of a ridiculous argument.

Sure, international corporations violate human rights, but unless you provide proof these lithium corporations are, then we can just assume they aren't.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#132

Post by [deleted] »

taneq wrote: post #35
mmiliauskas wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally have an impression, that commodity prices are a function of shocks. Gas prices in Europe, uranium prices in mid 2000s, lithium due to sudden EV demand, etc. World then adjusts, and prices "collapse" or rather stabilize. Basically, don't buy commodities when the price is high.

That always bugs me when these things are reported. Something goes up 30% in a year due to speculation and/or supply chain shocks, and then drops by 5% and it's "prices crash!" No it's still up ~25% year on year.

[deleted]

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#133

Post by PinkRidingHood »

newswasboring wrote: post #51
CogitoCogito wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I certainly agree there are many morally degenerate speculators whose presence is an overall net negative, but I think speculating on a commodity’s price is pretty much required to make any sort of long term plans involving that commodity. It all depends on the specific circumstance really.

I work in manufacturing, in the high end of the tech. Our products have perhaps the most complex supply chain. I have talked to the industry best about this. I have never once heard an expert cite speculation as helpful for there 5 year or 20 year plan. But I don't want to make an argument from personal incredulity, can you cite a source on how speculation helps long term planning? Not pop sci stuff, something concre…

To ask for an expert quote on a thread on hackernews sounds like a little bit overkill for me, and for me (and probably parent), it does feel a little obvious.

Let me try to answer this though: one example out of many is how Kodak speculated that the transition to digital cameras would lead them to lose profit over the long run, so they chose not to pursue the route. This was a long term plan that lead them to bankruptcy. (of course, they changed course once they realized that digital cameras were competitive options, but the original long term goal was to continue the film camera route, shown by their unwillingness to even try to produce digital cameras as an possible option)

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#134

Post by jjulius »

wffurr wrote: post #127
adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what aspect of performance are they missing?

Two big use cases: 1) Wok cooking, can’t use a round bottomed wok easily or create “wok hei”. Though you can also do it with a blowtorch: https://www.seriouseats.com/hei-now-youre-a-wok-star-a-fiery... 2) Causing childhood asthma. Gotta employ all those healthcare workers somehow…

You cited wok hei as an aspect of performance that induction stoves don't have, but it's hardly an argument in favor of gas stoves. The article you link is basically about a tool that makes up for what common home gas stoves can't even provide.

Previous Serious Eats articles about it even cited the lack of performance from gas stoves and recommended modifying one with a Wok Mon, but even then the results weren't perfect.

Edit: For some reason I feel the need to clarify that this isn't a comment in support of, or against, gas stoves. I just like cooking and am aware of how hard it is to achieve quality wok hei at home.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#135

Post by wolfram74 »

ericmay wrote: post #126
shlant wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I bet some of it also like, ok you’re banning gas stoves that I like cooking on but everybody owning a Ford F-850 and private jets are still cool (from an environmental perspective)? Seems like a spending a few bucks to save a few pennys kind of scenario. The health argument is fair but seems like it shouldn’t be a mandatory requirement so much as a safety warning (based on my current understanding). The fact that we…

This could be interpreted as saying unless you fix everything at once, any incremental change should be seen as disingenuous and merely a distraction. Would you like to rephrase?

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#136

Post by CyberDildonics »

aintgonnatakeit wrote: post #113
api wrote: post #111

The space is saturated with anti-EV FUD.

Same thing happens with the gas stove threads. I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons.

Gas stoves and plastic straws are distractions, they don't matter either way.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#137

Post by bluGill »

throwawaaarrgh wrote: post #117
elif wrote: post #109

Because I see so much "conflict metals" discussion when lithium is discussed, I would like to contribute that less than 3% of global lithium production takes place on small artisanal mines, in which place human rights abuse may occur. Over 85% of lithium is produced by just 2 international corporations with large scale mines complying with multiple international regulation requirements.

Because we all know international corporations never violate human rights?

Generally not the big ones. They are big enough to have a local branch office that can fined if caught. Small and medium sized companies are much harder to fine as they just don't operate in your country.

When the big ones do they are very careful about it, so they can claim to be in a grey area. Tire companies know there is child labor, but they are buying from the parents, and they make sure outside of harvest those kids get a great education (when the kids grow up their either leave, or work the plantation as medical or management staff and not labor). You can still say they are in the wrong, but they have made a place where you can understand the grey

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#138

Post by refurb »

newswasboring wrote: post #23
bawolff wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speculation & gambaling is just second order supply & demand.

No it's not. Finance bros like to tell themselves that, so that they can justify their place in morality.

I can give you a great example of the positive aspect of speculation.

Look at the futures market. Speculators are a big part of the liquidity of the futures market.

Price of wheat is $60/bushel. Farmer won't harvest for another 6 months and is worried prices will drop. They can secure a future and lock in the price now.

Wheat purchasers aren't on the other side of that trade, because why would they lock in a higher price? A lower price benefits them.

Speculators come in and bet on the price of wheat, creating a deep pool of futures that can be bought and sold.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#139

Post by PinkRidingHood »

signatoremo wrote: post #97
tsimionescu wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Of course prices are based on speculation about possible supply and demand, nobody has a crystal ball that can tell them “actual” supply and demand. Exactly, no one has such a crystal ball. And this actually generally applies not just to future supply and demand, but even to the past: it's actually impossible to measure supply and demand across any significant industry, to check whether prices matched it or not. An…

> you may well lose the bet if everyone else believes the pundit Can you give a real life example of when a pundit giving a predict against the actual supply that had everyone buy-in? Says, oil price goes down even when demand is hot?

An inverse example would be any bubble, for example the housing bubble that happened over a decade ago. Prediction of house prices going up eventually reached a point where house prices were going up, despite low "actual demand" (of course, if you count "demand for investment", then prices are absolutely a measure of that).

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#140

Post by bliteben »

HPsquared wrote: post #124
hyperbovine wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For serious chefs, gas ranges remain far superior to their electric counterparts. I’ll be the first in line to buy an induction cooktop that performs as well as a high end gas range, but we’re not there yet.

For home use, induction is far superior. More intense heat, less heating the room, no fumes, much easier to clean, etc etc etc

I had a ge one loved it when it worked. The board died twice in 6 months.

The Bosch one probably would have worked fine but for whatever reason it wasn't the look the spouse wanted.

Even though I was fully onboard I could see the specific pan thing annoying some dedicated gas people.

I’m back to gas and no longer have people boiling water so I can boil water.

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