Wasn't some country planing to nationalize their lithium stock?
Why are lithium prices collapsing?
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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?
#12The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…
I personally have an impression, that commodity prices are a function of shocks. Gas prices in Europe, uranium prices in mid 2000s, lithium due to sudden EV demand, etc. World then adjusts, and prices "collapse" or rather stabilize. Basically, don't buy commodities when the price is high.
Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?
#13Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wait until you learn about OPEC and oil prices :-)
Because they will change their mind? "demand and supply" OPEC is a cartel constraining supply to increase prices, it's not a free market but an example of "demand and supply" in it's most brutal form. OPEC prices are not about "gambling".
OPEC has gambled several times in the last decade on future oil prices (and not always won).
Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?
#14The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…
Speculation & gambaling is just second order supply & demand.
Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?
#15The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…
Wait until you learn about OPEC and oil prices :-)
I mean, that’s a straight up cartel. There’s nothing surprising about that.
But the OP is confused about their comment about commodities in general. They are largely based on supply and demand, but most companies need to predict supply and demand months and years in advance because converting raw material into a sale to the end user is a multi month to multi year process, so a natural result is that the prices are based on speculation of supply and demand, months to years in advance.
Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?
#16The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…
Wait until you learn about OPEC and oil prices :-)
Are they any different than the Isp and telcos in the states or Walmart, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft or payment service providers like mastercard and visa all of them work as cartels or monopolies. All these companies cost Americans more than when OPEC manipulate oil prices I think
Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because they will change their mind? "demand and supply" OPEC is a cartel constraining supply to increase prices, it's not a free market but an example of "demand and supply" in it's most brutal form. OPEC prices are not about "gambling".
OPEC has gambled several times in the last decade on future oil prices (and not always won).
In which way has OPEC gambled on future oil prices that moved prices? To my limited understanding this would involve buying oil futures.
Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?
#18As Nassim Taleb observed, “Scarity is always followed by glut”.
Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?
#19The more I read about prices of different commodities the more I realise the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling. And how most of the news is manipulated. For example they are equating lithium price fall with stagnating car sales. Where as car sales might be stagnating but electric car sales are taking a larger portion of total car sales ie ele…
> the biggest movement in prices is not because of demand and supply but rather because of speculation and gambling the movement reflects the expected future supply and demand at the time. The speculation is something that financial engineers use to offload the risks of such commodities from one party to another (such as from producers to consumers of said commodities).
With the way derivatives are used these days to speculate/gamble they do not help rather result in the boom bust cycles we see in more and more industries these days.
Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?
#20No mention of CATL releasing sodium based batteries this year? Just their dropping of lithium battery prices?
Sodium batteries will have any effect only in a few years. So this is mostly the case of increased production in anticipation of stronger demand that has not realized.
The latter is not necessary an indication of a less demand for batteries. There were a lot of progress recently in increase of the energy density in mass-produced batteries, and that may contributed to lessening of the demand.