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Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

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Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#61

Post by DoreenMichele »

Clubber wrote: post #49
DoreenMichele wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People focus on tech because it was previously seen as immune to such drama, a sure thing , the safe bet. When even "the rich people" with "all the right stuff" can get laid off, people have Big Feels.

>People focus on tech because it was previously seen as immune to such drama, a sure thing, the safe bet. Whoever thought that didn't work during 2001 or 2008, or has a short memory.

"Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose your job."

Lots of people have skewed perspectives.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#62

Post by throwawaaarrgh »

nytesky wrote: post #36
epolanski wrote: post #33

I don't think people that come to HN are nowhere near worried about not finding a job, especially the technical ones. I think we're mostly worried about not finding jobs that were as lucrative as they have been in the last years.

Exactly, we hire a ton of technical Fed contractors, but the pay range capps out at $150k and starts at a level most of HN would find insulting. But it’s considered “tech” at least by NPR.

Those of us who don't live in San Francisco that have been job searching have found salaries average about $125k. Over here in the real world tech doesn't make that much money.

Also, it's crazy that anyone would complain about that salary. By any metric $125k is more than enough money for a decent living.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#63

Post by vsareto »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #13
jasoneckert wrote: post #2

Big news headlines seem to be positioned in a way to scare people away from tech jobs right now, but the hard reality is that every organization relies tech people, not just those few big tech companies in Silicon Valley that over-hired during the pandemic.

If you were an average engineer destined to work in cookie-cutter roles in tech consultancies, would you still pursue a tech career, knowing that your job will sooner or later be taken over by AI? Remember that careers last 30 years, and if you're the average engineer, you're more likely to fall into the 80% of the pareto half than the 20%. Can you be confident that AI won't displace you in 10, 15, or even 20 years?…

>knowing that your job will sooner or later be taken over by AI?

There's a few layers that make me not worried:

- automation will shift jobs

- an engineer is a generally smart employee (yes, even the average engineers), so the company will be a sinking ship if they have to eliminate jobs and get rid of people instead of moving smart people around

- even if you do end up jobless, as a generally smart person, you can learn a new skill. Plus, now AI can help you learn more quickly.

The catch is, of course, predicting which next job won't be replaced by AI.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#64

Post by zx8080 »

triihart wrote: post #58
JKCalhoun wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I know folks without a college degree that started as tech support reps I know a few as well ... but that was decade(s) ago. I'm not sure the industry is still as hurdle-able as it once was.

I know a guy who started as Java developer in some entrylevel company. No education, on previous job he used to drive trucks. He already has more job-specific knowledge than I do, though lacks some fundamentals.

Lacking fundamentals is relatively not trivial to catch during an interview process.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#65

Post by bryanrasmussen »

giantg2 wrote: post #43
nytesky wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, we hire a ton of technical Fed contractors, but the pay range capps out at $150k and starts at a level most of HN would find insulting. But it’s considered “tech” at least by NPR.

It's insulting that people think most of HN are highly paid. I dont really fit in anywhere. I suppose I don't even fit in on here. $150k would be a very nice raise for me, one that I'm not capable of abtaining.

I guess the idea is that HN is mainly tech and much of that demographic makes higher than the societal median.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#66

Post by VLM »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #19
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were an average engineer destined to work in cookie-cutter roles in tech consultancies, would you still pursue a tech career, knowing that your job will sooner or later be taken over by AI? Remember that careers last 30 years, and if you're the average engineer, you're more likely to fall into the 80% of the pareto half than the 20%. Can you be confident that AI won't displace you in 10, 15, or even 20 years?…

> Can you be confident that AI won't displace you in 10, 15, or even 20 years? 1) No, but I am nonetheless skeptical of AI-takeover in general — I'm in the wait-and-see camp and so wouldn't be put off by the might-happens. 2) If one were AI-alarmist, is there any profession you can be confident will not be displaced by AI in 10, 15, or even 20 years? 3) Confession: I'm retired and no longer have any skin in the game.

How about IT, as opposed to software development?

As long as we have human using computers, we'll have more skill humans helping the humans.

We were told that inventing web search engines and giving kids ipads would completely eliminate IT. We see how that turned out LOL.

From a financial standpoint, as long as the top 1% of "IT skills" population can make the other 99% of the company more than 1% more profitable, they'll never get fired, well, completely anyway. At big companies its a pretty low bar to surpass, and small companies can contract with MSPs.

From a cultural / psychology standpoint, its pretty deeply ingrained that some folks are dumb/lazy/ignorant and thats OK, some folks have intense learned helplessness as a character trait, and some folks get really excited about forcing others to "do their work for them" WRT primate dominance. We as a culture will never avoid the appeal of BYOD, even with a miracle of 100% BYOD in IT, we as a culture would STILL hire cloud admins just so the job can be delegated if nothing else.

The pay in IT in most of the country is ... microscopic compared to software dev. New grads or people with nothing but an A+ are not getting new Stanford grad software dev salaries, its more like $22 to $25/hr in most of the country for a new help desk jockey. And it's pretty boring work for 99% of the employees 99% of the time. However, if chatgpt can fizzbuzz better than humans, doing "IT stuff" beats starvation for us computer people.

Its also worth pointing out that AI as a tool is just biased single answer web search. Web search more or less resulted in more employment. Seems likely this variation on the theme will result in more employment.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#67

Post by VLM »

post-it wrote: post #38
m_a_g wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2) If one were AI-alarmist, is there any profession you can be confident will not be displaced by AI in 10, 15, or even 20 years? Many; Dentists, people that fix your AC, electricians, etc, etc.

If AI becomes capable of replacing the bulk of software developers, many trades will be replaced by a guy earning a little over minimum wage wearing AR goggles with an AI showing+telling them what to do and correcting their mistakes.

No need for the AR goggles, just hire day labor to work for a skilled tradesman as a labor multiplier, or try the old fashioned "here's a mobile phone do what your boss says"

In the trades themselves, we've been doing this for centuries... have a master mason supervise the journeyman masons supervising the manual day labor. AI will not be able to compete with experienced personnel. In that field they've already dumbed down the entry level requirement to "pick up a brick and move it there" and it can't go much lower.

On the other hand, if I were manufacturing survey equipment I'd worry about AR goggles as the competition.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#68

Post by amusedcyclist »

giantg2 wrote: post #45
JCM9 wrote: post #17

Tech is a rare industry where you can easily pivot into it later in your career, start at an entry level position, work your way very high up the ladder and get paid very well along the way. I know folks without a college degree that started as tech support reps who worked their way up to senior roles in big tech that make multiples more than most physicians I know or others that had to go down a rigid path to get to…

"Easily" my ass. "The industry favors eager people who are hungry to continually learn and grow. While there can be short term bumps in the road, those that fit these characteristics have and will continue to do extremely well." That wasn't my experience. The people you describe making so much money are statistical outliers who got lucky. I'd love to live in whatever bubble you do. All I'd have to do to make stupid l…

When people say "easily", they don't mean "everybody gets to it". They mean "The chances are better than elsewhere". Which is true. And also fyi if you actually enjoy learning and growing you wouldn't sound so bitter about not making stupid amounts of money

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#69

Post by evilduck »

giantg2 wrote: post #45
JCM9 wrote: post #17

Tech is a rare industry where you can easily pivot into it later in your career, start at an entry level position, work your way very high up the ladder and get paid very well along the way. I know folks without a college degree that started as tech support reps who worked their way up to senior roles in big tech that make multiples more than most physicians I know or others that had to go down a rigid path to get to…

"Easily" my ass. "The industry favors eager people who are hungry to continually learn and grow. While there can be short term bumps in the road, those that fit these characteristics have and will continue to do extremely well." That wasn't my experience. The people you describe making so much money are statistical outliers who got lucky. I'd love to live in whatever bubble you do. All I'd have to do to make stupid l…

Relative to other fields. Compare it to wanting to switch careers into the military, plumbing, captaining a boat, or becoming a doctor or lawyer or civil engineer after the age of 40.

Technology has no age limits, educational requirements, no government enforced credentials or inspections required, no apprenticeship or residency requirements, no significant union presence, no commonality for time in title, no professional tests to pass, and a trivially small tool investment cost.

You can plausibly learn the craft to an employable level with just internet access, a couple hundred bucks in computer hardware, an insatiable amount of curiosity and desire to build things and the right personality match against the interview team. It's not a guarantee but the barriers to entry are laughably nonexistent compared to many careers.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#70

Post by spaceman_2020 »

bombolo wrote: post #26
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were an average engineer destined to work in cookie-cutter roles in tech consultancies, would you still pursue a tech career, knowing that your job will sooner or later be taken over by AI? Remember that careers last 30 years, and if you're the average engineer, you're more likely to fall into the 80% of the pareto half than the 20%. Can you be confident that AI won't displace you in 10, 15, or even 20 years?…

Oh please stop with this meaningless fear mongering. AI is a (not so good) tool. Yes it can write very short snippets that often make sense, but in no way can understand requirements, do debugging or maintain existing code.

boggles my mind that we had a tool that was smart when it was first launched in November 2022, experienced a massive generational improvement in the next iteration (GPT-4) within 4 months...and people on HN are ready to assert that this is the best it will ever be.

It improved drastically in quality within 4 months, yet for some reason, the nex 10 years will see 0 progress in a field with literally tens of billions and intellectual capital flowing in.

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