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Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

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Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#31

Post by sclarisse »

phpnode wrote: post #7
reset-password wrote: post #6

I am convinced that the mass layoffs are occurring because forward-thinking executives can see that AI agents are coming to replace employees faster than most people expect. By doing layoffs early they can cut staff before public opinion shifts to questioning AI as the motive, as opposed to "the economy".

That’s a level of confidence, preparation and forward thinking that would be uncharacteristic. The reality is that everyone else is cutting staff so it’s become expected. And because it’s expected and happening throughout the industry it’s a lot easier to do a layoff or two now than it was a year ago

It’s not because it’s “expected” in the abstract. It’s because everyone is competing for money with the US Treasury, and the rates on those Treasury bills are looking better than they have in a long long while.

Did you have a growth business that’s going to be 50% bigger in 10 years? A few years ago that would sound not-amazing but reasonable. Today that’s nothing. You can get that kind of returns from bonds with like zero risk.

Firms therefore prioritize savings like they haven’t done in years.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#32

Post by jwie »

The pandemic hiring blitz was more like seasonal hiring in a sector that doesn’t normally do that, and nobody had the vocabulary to describe the phenomenon.

Combined with talent hoarding the whole thing became a luxury companies can’t afford without free money from either investors or the fed.

Even with all this cutting, headcount is still growing. But it’s harder than ever for the entry level guys. Painting a rosy picture here is wrong.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#34

Post by amelius »

reset-password wrote: post #6

I am convinced that the mass layoffs are occurring because forward-thinking executives can see that AI agents are coming to replace employees faster than most people expect. By doing layoffs early they can cut staff before public opinion shifts to questioning AI as the motive, as opposed to "the economy".

Let's see what remains of ChatGPT after I finish my demo of a chatbot that aims to replace politicians and NYT writes an article about it.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#35

Post by nytesky »

JCM9 wrote: post #17

Tech is a rare industry where you can easily pivot into it later in your career, start at an entry level position, work your way very high up the ladder and get paid very well along the way. I know folks without a college degree that started as tech support reps who worked their way up to senior roles in big tech that make multiples more than most physicians I know or others that had to go down a rigid path to get to…

Does that apply to older workers?

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#36

Post by nytesky »

epolanski wrote: post #33

I don't think people that come to HN are nowhere near worried about not finding a job, especially the technical ones. I think we're mostly worried about not finding jobs that were as lucrative as they have been in the last years.

Exactly, we hire a ton of technical Fed contractors, but the pay range capps out at $150k and starts at a level most of HN would find insulting.

But it’s considered “tech” at least by NPR.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#37

Post by vaxman »

NPR?

How would this all go if it is necessary to start rationing access to AWS, Azure and GCP, driving up the cost of hosting applications on them to the point that only well funded organizations can continue doing so? What percentage of "Tech jobs" are in companies that exist at the whim of a couple shareholders or poorly funded organizations that are unlikely to withstand 3000% cloud price increases? (Spoiler: MOST.) Was any of this discussed by NPR?

What could cause such a black swan event? Does NPR want us to even think about the possibility of the sudden "closure" of certain fabs in Taiwan and Shenzen (making the chip shortage a semi-permanent event)? https://nypost.com/2023/04/26/us-to-send-nuclear-submarine-t...

Nobody in Tech has time for NPR, there are a million YouTube videos to watch, websites, podcasts and Safari books to read, plus management of your personal life and ACTUAL Sphere of Influence. The best you can do is vote for someone who you (not NPR, not Communist-controlled social media platforms or the revolving door of bloviators on TV) think is able to effectively manage issues in a way that will bring about the best economic outcome for you and everyone you know. https://youtu.be/bPpcfH_HHH8

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#38

Post by post-it »

m_a_g wrote: post #25
JKCalhoun wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can you be confident that AI won't displace you in 10, 15, or even 20 years? 1) No, but I am nonetheless skeptical of AI-takeover in general — I'm in the wait-and-see camp and so wouldn't be put off by the might-happens. 2) If one were AI-alarmist, is there any profession you can be confident will not be displaced by AI in 10, 15, or even 20 years? 3) Confession: I'm retired and no longer have any skin in the game.

> 2) If one were AI-alarmist, is there any profession you can be confident will not be displaced by AI in 10, 15, or even 20 years? Many; Dentists, people that fix your AC, electricians, etc, etc.

If AI becomes capable of replacing the bulk of software developers, many trades will be replaced by a guy earning a little over minimum wage wearing AR goggles with an AI showing+telling them what to do and correcting their mistakes.

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#39

Post by AdamN »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #24
JCM9 wrote: post #17

Tech is a rare industry where you can easily pivot into it later in your career, start at an entry level position, work your way very high up the ladder and get paid very well along the way. I know folks without a college degree that started as tech support reps who worked their way up to senior roles in big tech that make multiples more than most physicians I know or others that had to go down a rigid path to get to…

> I know folks without a college degree that started as tech support reps I know a few as well ... but that was decade(s) ago. I'm not sure the industry is still as hurdle-able as it once was.

Yeah I think the drawbridge is getting pulled up on that one. This won't be as common in the future and from the other side we're at the point where most new hires went to college to get a degree specifically to get a tech job. This creates another problem where the new crop isn't curious about tech for it's own sake - it's just a respectable career option :-/

Re: Tech jobs remain a good bet despite mass layoffs in Silicon Valley

#40

Post by sharemywin »

m_a_g wrote: post #25
JKCalhoun wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can you be confident that AI won't displace you in 10, 15, or even 20 years? 1) No, but I am nonetheless skeptical of AI-takeover in general — I'm in the wait-and-see camp and so wouldn't be put off by the might-happens. 2) If one were AI-alarmist, is there any profession you can be confident will not be displaced by AI in 10, 15, or even 20 years? 3) Confession: I'm retired and no longer have any skin in the game.

> 2) If one were AI-alarmist, is there any profession you can be confident will not be displaced by AI in 10, 15, or even 20 years? Many; Dentists, people that fix your AC, electricians, etc, etc.

I'm not sure on that. the the pieces seem to be there as far as hands that can manipulate rubix cubes and stuff, catch baseballs, boston dynamics robots agility, other humanoid robots.

Do I think white collar jobs go first, yes. also, the dynamics who buys all the stuff that blue collars workers install and build? without a white collar workforce the demand for that goes way down, and the supply of workers goes up.

Not saying it's going to happen just think other jobs aren't that far behind.

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