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It's not only you, there's an explosion of ChatGPT on HN

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Re: It's not only you, there's an explosion of ChatGPT on HN

#131

Post by rafaelero »

gambiting wrote: post #101
rafaelero wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what people who were overly hyping bitcoin got wrong Did they? It's the best performing asset in the last decade. I think they got it right.

The people who were hyping it said it will be the next major currency. Right now it's literally no different to people getting excited about beanie babies - sure those beanie babies have appreciated in value by 1000s of percent, but at the end of the day they are still just stupid toys and nothing more. So no, people didn't get it right. If anything they got it catastrophically wrong and the entire premise was hijack…

> The people who were hyping it said it will be the next major currency.

Why do you think this prospect have failed? Do you think such a huge shift on the reserve global currency would happen in just 10 years? In the meantime, the market is pricing the likelihood of this scenario with increasing optimism.

Re: It's not only you, there's an explosion of ChatGPT on HN

#133

Post by tnel77 »

roflyear wrote: post #127
tnel77 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s never too late :]!

It's not, but with the volatility of the assets I would only be comfortable putting a few % of my investments there. Unfortunately, that's a really small $ value, and the odds of my investment going up 100x+ is so low where it's not worth my time to invest in crypto :(

I can promise that it won’t go 100x, but 5-10x is still possible and would be outstanding.

Re: It's not only you, there's an explosion of ChatGPT on HN

#134

Post by dzsekijo »

sph wrote: post #3

I know it's controversial during this incredible AI hype cycle on this site, but as a AI skeptic and increasingly neo-Luddite, I've reduced the amount I spend on this site by 90% since the start of the year. If only I could add my userscript on my iOS Firefox to just hide any post containing the words "GPT", "AI" or "LLM", but alas, I guess I will have to be productive instead of slacking off reading HN. I honestly m…

The Show HN you want: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35654401

Update: Ah, sorry, "iOS", "Firefox", I missed that. I leave it here still, to honor the pain it took me to dig it up.

Re: It's not only you, there's an explosion of ChatGPT on HN

#136

Post by roflyear »

tnel77 wrote: post #133
roflyear wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not, but with the volatility of the assets I would only be comfortable putting a few % of my investments there. Unfortunately, that's a really small $ value, and the odds of my investment going up 100x+ is so low where it's not worth my time to invest in crypto :(

I can promise that it won’t go 100x, but 5-10x is still possible and would be outstanding.

I don't think 10x is worth the small amount of $ I'd be comfortable putting into it.

Re: It's not only you, there's an explosion of ChatGPT on HN

#138

Post by mardifoufs »

roflyear wrote: post #125
rafaelero wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From 2015 to today it appreciated 8000%. Do I need to elaborate further?

Yes, of course you do. You made a specific claim. You can't find a single other investment that would have returned higher? Very different, but maybe options plays on GME? Anything like that? I'm sure there is one! You said it's the HIGHEST - very specific claim! You're also picking a date period that works for you - certainly I can pick other dates that don't support your argument!

I get your point, but options aren't usually considered an asset. They do expire after all! Though now that I think about it, I'm not sure what would be the best performing asset of the past decade. Bitcoin has skyrocketed in the past decade, but I still think that something else probably gained value even faster. Maybe pokemon cards? Hahaha.

Re: It's not only you, there's an explosion of ChatGPT on HN

#139

Post by gambiting »

rafaelero wrote: post #131
gambiting wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people who were hyping it said it will be the next major currency. Right now it's literally no different to people getting excited about beanie babies - sure those beanie babies have appreciated in value by 1000s of percent, but at the end of the day they are still just stupid toys and nothing more. So no, people didn't get it right. If anything they got it catastrophically wrong and the entire premise was hijack…

> The people who were hyping it said it will be the next major currency. Why do you think this prospect have failed? Do you think such a huge shift on the reserve global currency would happen in just 10 years? In the meantime, the market is pricing the likelihood of this scenario with increasing optimism.

No one said crypto should have displaced real currencies by now. But you'd think it would be used as a currency somewhere - and it just isn't, outside of extremely limited cases. Not to mention that Bitcoin specifically just can't work this way due to the way it's designed - it's destined to always be a shitty "investment" asset and nothing more.

>>the market is pricing the likelihood of this scenario with increasing optimism

That is actually very funny to read. The markets are also pricing what they want to happen not what is likely to happen. This sort of prediction is close to pointless.

Re: It's not only you, there's an explosion of ChatGPT on HN

#140

Post by mike_hearn »

chongli wrote: post #124
mike_hearn wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhiLw5Q_UFg Summarizing: 1. Obviously you can't completely "solve" truthfulness because people disagree on what is and is not true. But you can go a long way. 2. The models do know what they don't know. Their level of uncertainty is not only expressed in the final token logprobs but also seems to be reified somehow, such that they can express their own level of certa…

Thanks for the link! I've now taken the time to watch John's talk and I have some thoughts. It's not only difficult to solve truthfulness due to disagreement (and subjectivity), but it's also very difficult because different contexts have different standards of evidence. In some contexts, like programming, we'd rather have the model output its best guess for what the program should be, no matter how low the confidenc…

Thanks for the great comment. I agree and many of the points you're making here were touched on by John or in the QA section at the end, with the exception I think of the insight about the identity of the questioner. I think that can be solved pretty easily though just by asking people to add their age and country when signing up for a ChatGPT account. They'll probably have to add age anyway for legal reasons.

For the rest, it rapidly turns into the same set of problems you face when evaluating the truthfulness of any human authored answer. This is going to turn into a fight between people who want a Star Trek style truth machine that is far better than humans at generating true claims, people who think they want such a machine but don't (plenty of unpleasant truths out there), and people who are satisfied with "decent human" level honesty and integrity. Or maybe AI can achieve slightly better than human, I think even just the current set of improvements and ideas is likely enough to get there and OpenAI have already made a lot of progress in training opinions out of their LLM. A lot of why people get riled up about truth is the common practice of stating opinions as facts. GPT-4 is extremely reluctant to take positions on anything, which may yield unsatisfying prose but is an obvious and good move for turning down the heat on truthfulness fights.

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